IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/abk/jajeba/ajebasp.2015.77.93.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Roles of Macroeconomic Variables on Agricultural Diversification in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Sunday B. Akpan
  • Samuel J. Udoka
  • Inimfon V. Patrick

Abstract

The study examined the trend in agricultural diversification index from 1960 to 2014 in Nigeria. It also determined the influence of some macroeconomic variables on the estimated index. Augmented Dickey-Fuller-GLS unit root test showed that all series were integrated of order one. The long-run and short-run elasticity of the agricultural diversification index with respect to the specified macro-economic variables were determined using the techniques of co-integration and error correction models. The trend analysis revealed that, the country has witnessed appreciable level of agricultural diversification with 0.3%, 0.5% and 2.3% annual exponential growth rate in entropy diversification index, Herfindhal diversification index and Ogive diversification index respectively. The estimation of the error correction model supported the long run stability of agricultural diversification index in Nigeria. The empirical results revealed that, in the long run inflation, viable manufacturing sector, credit to agricultural sector, external reserves, per capita income, unemployment and energy consumption are positive drivers of agricultural diversification; whereas, crude oil prices, lending capacity of commercial Bank, foreign direct investment in agricultural sector and non-oil import are long run negative drivers of agricultural diversification in Nigeria. However, in the short run, inflation, external reserves and non-oil imports stimulated agricultural diversification; while energy consumption and manufacturing capability retard agricultural diversification in the country. A ten-year forecast was made on the estimated diversification indices and the result showed a progressive growth. The empirical results were further substantiated by the variance decomposition and impulse response analysis of the dependent variable with respect to changes in the explanatory variables. Results obtained were in line with the previous results. It is recommended that, the Nigeria government should re-aligned its macroeconomic policies to achieve stability in inflation rate, external reserves, industrial production, electricity consumption, agricultural credit institution if sustainable agricultural diversification is to be achieved in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Sunday B. Akpan & Samuel J. Udoka & Inimfon V. Patrick, 2015. "Roles of Macroeconomic Variables on Agricultural Diversification in Nigeria," American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, Science Publications, vol. 7(2), pages 77-93, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:abk:jajeba:ajebasp.2015.77.93
    DOI: 10.3844/ajebasp.2015.77.93
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://thescipub.com/pdf/ajebasp.2015.77.93.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://thescipub.com/abstract/ajebasp.2015.77.93
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.3844/ajebasp.2015.77.93?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiyani, R.L. & Pandya, H.R., 1998. "Diversification of Agriculture in Gujarat: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 53(4), December.
    2. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    4. James Laurenceson & Joseph C.H. Chai, 2003. "Financial Reform and Economic Development in China," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2714.
    5. R. C. Tress, 1938. "Unemployment and the Diversification of Industry1," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 9(2), pages 140-152, December.
    6. Feenstra, Robert C. & Yang, Tzu-Han & Hamilton, Gary G., 1999. "Business groups and product variety in trade: evidence from South Korea, Taiwan and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 71-100, June.
    7. Jean Imbs & Romain Wacziarg, 2003. "Stages of Diversification," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 63-86, March.
    8. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    9. Glenn E. McLaughlin, 1930. "Industrial Diversification in American Cities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 45(1), pages 131-149.
    10. Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, Sheila & Ferrantino, Michael, 1997. "Export diversification and structural dynamics in the growth process: The case of Chile," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 375-391, April.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jiguang Zhu & Yaru Sun & Yunxing Song, 2022. "Household Livelihood Strategy Changes and Agricultural Diversification: A Correlation and Mechanism Analysis Based on Data from the China Family Panel," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-18, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lei Pan & Svetlana Maslyuk-Escobedo & Vinod Mishra, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns and Commodity Prices under Capital and Interest Rate Controls: Empirical Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 16-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Kollias, Christos, 2010. "Dynamic European stock market convergence: Evidence from rolling cointegration analysis in the first euro-decade," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2056-2064, September.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    4. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    5. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & George Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2005. "Cointegration, causality and domestic portfolio diversification in the Cyprus Stock Exchange," Working Papers 0522, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    6. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    7. Senay ACIKGOZ & Anil AKCAGLAYAN, 2014. "Turkiye’de Cari Islemler Aciginin Surdurulebilirligi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 83-97.
    8. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    9. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    10. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    11. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
    12. Sari, Ramazan & Ewing, Bradley T. & Soytas, Ugur, 2008. "The relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial production in the United States: An ARDL approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2302-2313, September.
    13. Chandran, V.G.R. & Tang, Chor Foon, 2013. "The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 445-453.
    14. Nela Vlahinic & Pavle Jakovac, 2014. "Revisiting the Energy Consumption-Growth Nexus for Croatia: New Evidence from a Multivariate Framework Analysis," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(4), December.
    15. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318.
    16. Schindler, Felix & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2010. "Linkages between international securitized real estate markets: Further evidence from time-varying and stochastic cointegration," ZEW Discussion Papers 10-051, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    17. Rosas Chimal, Mario Alberto & Flores Ortega, Miguel, 2017. "Calificación riesgo país y flujos de capital en México: 1998-2012/Country risk rating and capital flows in Mexico: 1998-2012," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 191-216, Enero.
    18. Robaina, M. & Madaleno, M. & Silva, S. & Eusébio, C. & Carneiro, M.J. & Gama, C. & Oliveira, K. & Russo, M.A. & Monteiro, A., 2020. "The relationship between tourism and air quality in five European countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 261-272.
    19. Abimelech Paye Gbatu & Zhen Wang & Presley K. Wesseh Jr. & Isaac Yak Repha Tutdel, 2017. "Causal Effects and Dynamic Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Development in Liberia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 119-131.
    20. Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2016. "Interest parity, cointegration, and the term structure: Testing in an integrated framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 281-294.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abk:jajeba:ajebasp.2015.77.93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jeffery Daniels (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://thescipub.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.