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Cognitive and Motivational Biases in Decision and Risk Analysis

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  1. Gasparini, Gaia & Brunelli, Matteo & Chiriac, Marius Dan, 2022. "Multi-period portfolio decision analysis: A case study in the infrastructure management sector," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 9(C).
  2. Simon French & Nikolaos Argyris & Stephanie M. Haywood & Matthew C. Hort & Jim Q. Smith, 2019. "Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 9-16, January.
  3. Mauricio Moraes Davidovich & William K. Klimack, 2022. "PRISM: improved risk management," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(7), pages 1-25, July.
  4. Angelis, A. & Montibeller, G. & Kanavos, P., 2023. "A structured methodology for essential medicines lists and health emergency stockpiles: Experience with the Emergency Medicines Buffer Stock in the United Kingdom," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
  5. Cinelli, Marco & Kadziński, Miłosz & Gonzalez, Michael & Słowiński, Roman, 2020. "How to support the application of multiple criteria decision analysis? Let us start with a comprehensive taxonomy," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  6. Matthew B. Welsh & Steve H. Begg, 2018. "More-or-less elicitation (MOLE): reducing bias in range estimation and forecasting," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 171-212, June.
  7. Shuang Liu & Kirsten Maclean & Cathy Robinson, 2019. "A cost-effective framework to prioritise stakeholder participation options," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 7(3), pages 221-241, November.
  8. Dean, M., 2021. "Participatory multi-criteria analysis methods: Comprehensive, inclusive, transparent and user-friendly? An application to the case of the London Gateway Port," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  9. Katsagounos, Ilias & Thomakos, Dimitrios D. & Litsiou, Konstantia & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2021. "Superforecasting reality check: Evidence from a small pool of experts and expedited identification," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 107-117.
  10. Siebert, Johannes Ulrich & Kunz, Reinhard E. & Rolf, Philipp, 2021. "Effects of decision training on individuals’ decision-making proactivity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 264-282.
  11. Gary J. Summers, 2021. "Friction and Decision Rules in Portfolio Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 101-120, June.
  12. Sumitra Sri Bhashyam & Gilberto Montibeller, 2016. "In the Opponent's Shoes: Increasing the Behavioral Validity of Attackers’ Judgments in Counterterrorism Models," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 666-680, April.
  13. Mónica D. Oliveira & Inês Mataloto & Panos Kanavos, 2019. "Multi-criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment: addressing methodological challenges to improve the state of the art," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(6), pages 891-918, August.
  14. Marttunen, Mika & Haara, Arto & Hjerppe, Turo & Kurttila, Mikko & Liesiö, Juuso & Mustajoki, Jyri & Saarikoski, Heli & Tolvanen, Anne, 2023. "Parallel and comparative use of three multicriteria decision support methods in an environmental portfolio problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 842-859.
  15. Kuller, M. & Beutler, P. & Lienert, J., 2023. "Preference change in stakeholder group-decision processes in the public sector: Extent, causes and implications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(3), pages 1268-1285.
  16. Alexey Kashevnik & Mikhail Kruglov & Igor Lashkov & Nikolay Teslya & Polina Mikhailova & Evgeny Ripachev & Vladislav Malutin & Nikita Saveliev & Igor Ryabchikov, 2020. "Human Psychophysiological Activity Estimation Based on Smartphone Camera and Wearable Electronics," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-27, July.
  17. Christian Julmi, 2019. "When rational decision-making becomes irrational: a critical assessment and re-conceptualization of intuition effectiveness," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 12(1), pages 291-314, April.
  18. Mustajoki, Jyri & Saarikoski, Heli & Belton, Valerie & Hjerppe, Turo & Marttunen, Mika, 2020. "Utilizing ecosystem service classifications in multi-criteria decision analysis – Experiences of peat extraction case in Finland," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
  19. Mark Jenkins & Sean Loughney & Dante Benjamin Matellini & Jin Wang, 2024. "Advancing the Sustainability of Risk Assessments within the Renewable Energy Sector—Review of Published Risk Assessments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, March.
  20. Franco, L. Alberto & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Rouwette, Etiënne A.J.A. & Leppänen, Ilkka, 2021. "Taking stock of behavioural OR: A review of behavioural studies with an intervention focus," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 401-418.
  21. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso, 2022. "What causes post-decision disappointment? Estimating the contributions of systematic and selection biases," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 296(2), pages 587-600.
  22. Gregory F. Nemet & Laura Diaz Anadon & Elena Verdolini, 2017. "Quantifying the Effects of Expert Selection and Elicitation Design on Experts’ Confidence in Their Judgments About Future Energy Technologies," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(2), pages 315-330, February.
  23. Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Zhang, Wenke, 2023. "Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 1-16.
  24. Parreiras, R.O. & Kokshenev, I. & Carvalho, M.O.M. & Willer, A.C.M. & Dellezzopolles, C.F. & Nacif, D.B. & Santana, J.A., 2019. "A flexible multicriteria decision-making methodology to support the strategic management of Science, Technology and Innovation research funding programs," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 725-739.
  25. Jyri Mustajoki & Mika Marttunen, 2019. "Improving resilience of reservoir operation in the context of watercourse regulation in Finland," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 7(3), pages 359-386, November.
  26. Chen, Xin & Xu, Weijun & Wu, Meng, 2024. "Newsvendor overconfidence and advertising," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  27. Valentina Ferretti & Gilberto Montibeller, 2019. "An Integrated Framework for Environmental Multi‐Impact Spatial Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 257-273, January.
  28. Christine Merk & Gert Pönitzsch & Katrin Rehdanz, 2019. "Do climate engineering experts display moral-hazard behaviour?," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 231-243, February.
  29. Aubert, Alice H. & Schmid, Sara & Lienert, Judit, 2024. "Can online interfaces enhance learning for public decision-making? Eliciting citizens’ preferences for multicriteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(2), pages 760-775.
  30. Ian Durbach & Gilberto Montibeller, 2018. "Predicting in shock: on the impact of negative, extreme, rare, and short lived events on judgmental forecasts," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 213-233, June.
  31. Jianping Li & Chunbing Bao & Dengsheng Wu, 2018. "How to Design Rating Schemes of Risk Matrices: A Sequential Updating Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 99-117, January.
  32. Jaspersen, Johannes G., 2022. "Convex combinations in judgment aggregation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 780-794.
  33. Wang, Qun & Jia, Guozhu & Song, Wenyan, 2022. "Identifying critical factors in systems with interrelated components: A method considering heterogeneous influence and strength attenuation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 456-470.
  34. Florian Methling & Steffen A. Borden & Deepak Veeraraghavan & Insa Sommer & Johannes Ulrich Siebert & Rüdiger von Nitzsch & Mark Seidler, 2022. "Supporting Innovation in Early-Stage Pharmaceutical Development Decisions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 19(4), pages 337-353, December.
  35. Haag, Fridolin & Zürcher, Sara & Lienert, Judit, 2019. "Enhancing the elicitation of diverse decision objectives for public planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 912-928.
  36. Yinan Li & Neng Zhu & Beibei Qin, 2019. "What Affects the Progress and Transformation of New Residential Building Energy Efficiency Promotion in China: Stakeholders’ Perceptions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-41, March.
  37. Gerda Ana Melnik-Leroy & Gintautas Dzemyda, 2021. "How to Influence the Results of MCDM?—Evidence of the Impact of Cognitive Biases," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-25, January.
  38. Marat Rudakov & Elena Gridina & Jürgen Kretschmann, 2021. "Risk-Based Thinking as a Basis for Efficient Occupational Safety Management in the Mining Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-14, January.
  39. Marta O. Soares & Mark J. Sculpher & Karl Claxton, 2020. "Health Opportunity Costs: Assessing the Implications of Uncertainty Using Elicitation Methods with Experts," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 40(4), pages 448-459, May.
  40. Abbas, Ali E. & Hupman, Andrea C., 2023. "Scale dependence in weight and rate multicriteria decision methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(1), pages 225-235.
  41. Jin-Hwan Bae & Jin-Woo Park, 2021. "Research into Individual Factors Affecting Safety within Airport Subsidiaries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-13, May.
  42. Jin Tian & Yundou Wang & Shutian Gao, 2022. "Analysis of Mining-Related Injuries in Chinese Coal Mines and Related Risk Factors: A Statistical Research Study Based on a Meta-Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(23), pages 1-16, December.
  43. Corrente, Salvatore & Greco, Salvatore & Rezaei, Jafar, 2024. "Better decisions with less cognitive load: The Parsimonious BWM," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  44. Vieira, Ana C.L. & Oliveira, Mónica D. & Bana e Costa, Carlos A., 2020. "Enhancing knowledge construction processes within multicriteria decision analysis: The Collaborative Value Modelling framework," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  45. Anca M. Hanea & Marissa F. McBride & Mark A. Burgman & Bonnie C. Wintle, 2018. "The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1781-1794, September.
  46. Jimnee Deka & Meghna Sharma & Nishant Agarwal & Kamesh Tiwari, 2023. "Linking ESG-Investing Consciousness, Behavioral Biases, and Risk-Perception: Scale Validation with Specifics of Indian Retail Investors," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 70-91.
  47. Shuicheng Tian & Junrui Mao & Hongxia Li, 2022. "Disaster-Causing Mechanism of Hidden Disaster-Causing Factors of Major and Extraordinarily Serious Gas Explosion Accidents in Coal Mine Goafs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
  48. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115333, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  49. Amaury Caruzzo & Cintia Maria Rodrigues Blanco & Paul Joe, 2020. "Developing a multi-attribute decision aid model for selection of a weather radar supplier," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 371-384, September.
  50. Timothy McDaniels, 2021. "Four Decades of Transformation in Decision Analytic Practice for Societal Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 491-502, March.
  51. Dimitrios Gouglas & Kendall Hoyt & Elizabeth Peacocke & Aristidis Kaloudis & Trygve Ottersen & John-Arne Røttingen, 2019. "Setting Strategic Objectives for the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations: An Exploratory Decision Analysis Process," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(6), pages 430-446, November.
  52. Josephine Gatti Schafer & Caleb T Gallemore, 2016. "Biases in multicriteria decision analysis: The case of environmental planning in Southern Nevada," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(8), pages 1652-1675, December.
  53. Maija Tiitu & Arto Viinikka & Leena Kopperoinen & Davide Geneletti, 2018. "Balancing Urban Green Space and Residential Infill Development: A Spatial Multi-Criteria Approach Based on Practitioner Engagement," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-26, September.
  54. Ashraf Labib & Salem Chakhar & Lorraine Hope & John Shimell & Mark Malinowski, 2022. "Analysis of noise and bias errors in intelligence information systems," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 73(12), pages 1755-1775, December.
  55. Robin L. Dillon & Vicki M. Bier & Richard Sheffield John & Abdullah Althenayyan, 2023. "Closing the Gap Between Decision Analysis and Policy Analysts Before the Next Pandemic," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 109-132, June.
  56. F. Brocal & C. González & D. Komljenovic & P. F. Katina & Miguel A. Sebastián, 2019. "Emerging Risk Management in Industry 4.0: An Approach to Improve Organizational and Human Performance in the Complex Systems," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-13, June.
  57. Edoardo Tosoni & Ahti Salo & Enrico Zio, 2018. "Scenario Analysis for the Safety Assessment of Nuclear Waste Repositories: A Critical Review," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 755-776, April.
  58. Lahtinen, Tuomas J. & Hämäläinen, Raimo P. & Jenytin, Cosmo, 2020. "On preference elicitation processes which mitigate the accumulation of biases in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 201-210.
  59. Johannes Ulrich Siebert & Detlof von Winterfeldt, 2020. "Comparative Analysis of Terrorists’ Objectives Hierarchies," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 17(2), pages 97-114, June.
  60. Nikolaos Argyris & Valentina Ferretti & Simon French & Seth Guikema & Gilberto Montibeller, 2019. "Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(1), pages 1-8, January.
  61. Käki, Anssi & Kemppainen, Katariina & Liesiö, Juuso, 2019. "What to do when decision-makers deviate from model recommendations? Empirical evidence from hydropower industry," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(3), pages 869-882.
  62. David W. Shanafelt & Brian Danle & Jesse Caputo & Marielle Brunette, 2024. "More forest more problems? Understanding family forest owners’ concerns in the United States," Working Papers of BETA 2024-32, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  63. Jiapeng Liu & Miłosz Kadziński & Xiuwu Liao, 2023. "Modeling Contingent Decision Behavior: A Bayesian Nonparametric Preference-Learning Approach," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 35(4), pages 764-785, July.
  64. Glorian Sorensen & Susan Peters & Karina Nielsen & Eve Nagler & Melissa Karapanos & Lorraine Wallace & Lisa Burke & Jack T. Dennerlein & Gregory R. Wagner, 2019. "Improving Working Conditions to Promote Worker Safety, Health, and Wellbeing for Low-Wage Workers: The Workplace Organizational Health Study," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-16, April.
  65. Gilberto Montibeller & L. Alberto Franco & Ashley Carreras, 2020. "A Risk Analysis Framework for Prioritizing and Managing Biosecurity Threats," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(11), pages 2462-2477, November.
  66. Mika Marttunen & Jyri Mustajoki, 2018. "Use of Analyst-Generated Stakeholder Preference Profiles in Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis — Experiences from an Urban Planning Case," Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management (JEAPM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-29, September.
  67. Panagiotis K. Marhavilas & Fani Pliaki & Dimitrios Koulouriotis, 2022. "International Management System Standards Related to Occupational Safety and Health: An Updated Literature Survey," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-29, October.
  68. Sara J. M. Abdeen & Florian Methling & Rüdiger Nitzsch, 2024. "Incomplete Objectives in Decision Making: How Omitting Objectives Affects Identifying the Most Promising Alternative," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 1-13, December.
  69. Fabriziomaria Gobba & Enrico Dall’Olio & Alberto Modenese & Michele De Maria & Luca Campi & Gian Maria Cavallini, 2017. "Work-Related Eye Injuries: A Relevant Health Problem. Main Epidemiological Data from a Highly-Industrialized Area of Northern Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-12, June.
  70. Michael Siegrist & Joseph Árvai, 2020. "Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2191-2206, November.
  71. L. Robin Keller & Yitong Wang, 2017. "Information Presentation in Decision and Risk Analysis: Answered, Partly Answered, and Unanswered Questions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(6), pages 1132-1145, June.
  72. Angelis, A. & Linch, M. & Montibeller, G. & Molina-Lopez, T. & Zawada, A. & Orzel, K. & Arickx, F. & Espin, J. & Kanavos, P., 2020. "Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for HTA across four EU Member States: Piloting the Advance Value Framework," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
  73. Feng, Jian Rui & Zhao, Meng-ke & Lu, Shou-xiang, 2024. "Accident spread and risk propagation mechanism in complex industrial system network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
  74. Marttunen, Mika & Haag, Fridolin & Belton, Valerie & Mustajoki, Jyri & Lienert, Judit, 2019. "Methods to inform the development of concise objectives hierarchies in multi-criteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 277(2), pages 604-620.
  75. Aubert, Alice H. & Esculier, Fabien & Lienert, Judit, 2020. "Recommendations for online elicitation of swing weights from citizens in environmental decision-making," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 7(C).
  76. Almeida, N. & Trindade, M. & Komljenovic, D. & Finger, M., 2022. "A conceptual construct on value for infrastructure asset management," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  77. Ewa Roszkowska, 2020. "The extention rank ordering criteria weighting methods in fuzzy enviroment," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 30(2), pages 91-114.
  78. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 661-675.
  79. Vicki Bier, 2020. "The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2207-2217, November.
  80. Banus Kam Leung Low & Siu Shing Man & Alan Hoi Shou Chan & Saad Alabdulkarim, 2019. "Construction Worker Risk-Taking Behavior Model with Individual and Organizational Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(8), pages 1-13, April.
  81. Ramona Ludolph & Peter J. Schulz, 2018. "Debiasing Health-Related Judgments and Decision Making: A Systematic Review," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 38(1), pages 3-13, January.
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