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Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?

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Cited by:

  1. Tabellini, Guido, 1988. "Learning and the volatility of exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 243-250, June.
  2. Hans Dewachter & Dirk Veestraeten, 2001. "Measuring convergence speed of asset prices toward a pre-announced target," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 591-601.
  3. Nandwa, Boaz & Mohan, Ramesh, 2007. "A Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Low-Income Countries: Evidence from Kenya," MPRA Paper 5581, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Robert A. Jarrow, 2015. "Asset Price Bubbles," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 201-218, December.
  5. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
  6. Jiang, George J., 1998. "Jump-diffusion model of exchange rate dynamics : estimation via indirect inference," Research Report 98A40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  7. Takatoshi Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1996. "Is There Private Information in the FX Market? The Tokyo Experiment," Working Papers _005, University of California at Berkeley, Haas School of Business.
  8. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  9. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
  10. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
  11. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  12. David S. Bates, 1993. "Jumps and Stochastic Volatility: Exchange Rate Processes Implicit in thePHLX Deutschemark Options," NBER Working Papers 4596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick & Paul Kaplan, 1986. "An Evaluation of Recent Evidence on Stock Market Bubbles," NBER Working Papers 1971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Éric Jondeau, 1996. "Les modèles monétaires de taux de change : un examen empirique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 53-65.
  15. Bettendorf, Timo & Chen, Wenjuan, 2013. "Are there bubbles in the Sterling-dollar exchange rate? New evidence from sequential ADF tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 350-353.
  16. Lux, Thomas & Sornette, Didier, 2002. "On Rational Bubbles and Fat Tails," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 589-610, August.
  17. Djeutem, Edouard & Kasa, Kenneth, 2013. "Robustness and exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 27-39.
  18. M. Faizul Islam & Mohammad S. Hasan, 2006. "The Monetary Model of the Dollar-Yen Exchange Rate Determination: A Cointegration Approach," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 5(2), pages 129-145, August.
  19. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente & Mark E. Wohar, 2004. "Monetary Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Different Nominal Regimes," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 179-193, April.
  20. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
  21. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  22. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "Monetary-based models of the exchange rate: a panel perspective," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-19, January.
  23. Nicholas Sarantis, 1994. "The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 698-711, December.
  24. Ikeda, Shinsuke & Shibata, Akihisa, 1995. "Fundamentals uncertainty, bubbles, and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 199-222, May.
  25. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-012 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Marian Micu, 2005. "Extracting expectations from currency option prices: a comparison of methods," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 226, Society for Computational Economics.
  27. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
  28. Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989. "On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
  29. Michael Frömmel & Darko B. Vukovic & Jinyuan Wu, 2022. "The Dollar Exchange Rate, Adjustment to the Purchasing Power Parity, and the Interest Rate Differential," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(23), pages 1-17, November.
  30. Wu, Yangru, 1995. "Are there rational bubbles in foreign exchange markets? Evidence from an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 27-46, February.
  31. Meese, Richard & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1986. "Was it real? The exchange rate -- Interest differential relation: 1973-1984," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 297-298, June.
  32. Ahmed, Mumtaz & Bashir, Uzma & Ullah, Irfan, 2021. "Testing for explosivity in US-Pak Exchange Rate via Sequential ADF Procedures," MPRA Paper 109607, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Adawo, Monday A. & Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2013. "Monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon: evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 46407, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  34. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:50:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  35. Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya & Xiao, Zhijie, 2024. "Sequential monitoring of stock market price changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 156-172.
  36. Szabo Andrea, 2015. "Testing Monetary Exchange Rate Models With Panel Cointegration Tests," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 643-651, July.
  37. Anderson, Keith & Brooks, Chris & Katsaris, Apostolos, 2010. "Speculative bubbles in the S&P 500: Was the tech bubble confined to the tech sector?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-361, June.
  38. Engel, C., 1996. "A Model of Foreign Exchange Rate Indetermination," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-13, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  39. Wihlborg, Clas, 1987. "Speculation, Bubbles, and Sunspots under Structural Uncertainty," Working Paper Series 180, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  40. Diba, Behzad T. & Grossman, Herschel I., 1988. "Rational inflationary bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 35-46, January.
  41. Eray Gemici & Muslum Polat & Remzi Gök & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mohammed Arshad Khan & Yunus Kilic, 2023. "Do Bubbles in the Bitcoin Market Impact Stock Markets? Evidence From 10 Major Stock Markets," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
  42. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
  43. Daan Steenkamp, 2017. "How bubbly is the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2017/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  44. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2005. "Current account, exchange rate dynamics and the predictability: the experience of Malaysia and Singapore," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 255-270, July.
  45. Benjamin J. C. Kim & David Karemera, 2006. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of alternative nominal exchange rate models: the case of long memory," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 369-380.
  46. Dettoni, Robinson & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2024. "Stock market prices and Dividends in the US: Bubbles or Long-run equilibria relationships?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  47. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 1999. "Time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange and equity markets: evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 291-316, November.
  48. Amigo Dobaño, L., 2003. "Estimación de modelos de “nueva información”: aplicación a los mercados de cambio en períodos de menor y/o mayor espectación," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 21, pages 5-26, Abril.
  49. Billio, Monica & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2000. "Value-at-Risk: a multivariate switching regime approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 531-554, December.
  50. Wu, Yih-Jiuan, 1998. "Exchange rate forecasting: an application of radial basis function neural networks," ISU General Staff Papers 1998010108000013540, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  51. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
  52. Ho Yeol Lim, 2003. "Asset price movements and monetary policy in South Korea," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 313-337, Bank for International Settlements.
  53. van Norden, Simon, 1996. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 219-251, May-June.
  54. Wihlborg, Clas, 1990. "The incentive to acquire information and financial market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 347-365, June.
  55. Husted, Steven & MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "The Asian currency crash: were badly driven fundamentals to blame?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 537-550.
  56. Andrea Bobula & Giuseppe De Arcangelis, 1997. "Speculative bubbles and excess returns in European exchange rates. Evidence from a nonparametric approach," Working Papers in Public Economics 23, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
  57. Ithurbide, Philippe, 1987. "Le marché de l’or et les bulles rationnelles," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 63(4), pages 331-356, décembre.
  58. Baffes, John & Ajwad, Mohamed I., 1998. "Detecting price links in the world cotton market," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1944, The World Bank.
  59. Everaert Gerdie, 2011. "Estimation and Inference in Time Series with Omitted I(1) Variables," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, January.
  60. Durlauf, Steven N. & Hall, Robert E., 1988. "Bounds on the Variances of Specification Errors in Models with Expectations," CEPR Publications 244420, Stanford University, Center for Economic Policy Research.
  61. James M. Nason & John H. Rogers, 2008. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: a generalization," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  62. Kirman, Alan & Teyssiere, Gilles, 2005. "Testing for bubbles and change-points," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 765-799, April.
  63. Takatoshi Ito & V. Vance Roley, 1988. "Intraday Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Movements: News or Noise?," NBER Working Papers 2703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  64. Otavio De Medeiros, 2005. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Brazil," Finance 0503019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2004. "Evidence of fueling of the 2000 new economy bubble by foreign capital inflow: implications for the future of the US economy and its stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 412-440.
  66. Ekpeno L. Effiong, 2014. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Monetary Fundamentals: A Cointegrated SVAR Approach for Nigeria," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(2), pages 205-221, June.
  67. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome W., 2019. "Does the long-run monetary model hold for Sub-Saharan Africa? A time series and panel-cointegration study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 279-303.
  68. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & M. Masih, A. Mansur & Azali, M., 2002. "The stock market and the ringgit exchange rate: a note," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 471-486, December.
  69. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
  70. Robert P. Flood & Robert J. Hodrick, 1989. "Testable Implications of Indeterminacies in Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Working Papers 2903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  71. Mark Taylor, 1987. "Risk premia and foreign exchange: A multiple time series approach to testing uncovered interest-rate parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 123(4), pages 579-591, December.
  72. Bettendorf, Timo & Chen, Wenjuan, 2012. "Are there bubbles in the Sterling-dollar Exchange Rate? New evidence from Sequential ADF Tests," Discussion Papers 2012/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  73. Maldonado, Wilfredo L. & Tourinho, Octávio A.F. & Valli, Marcos, 2012. "Exchange rate bubbles: Fundamental value estimation and rational expectations test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1033-1059.
  74. Simon J. Broome & Morley, B., 2003. "Stock Prices and the Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: An Empirical Investigation," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1321103.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  75. Cruz-Aké, Salvador & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco & Cabrera-Ramos, Agustín, 2013. "Irracionalidad En Los Mercados Inmobiliarios De Los Eu," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Benemerita Universidad Autónoma de Puebla (ed.), Política Económica: Análisis Monetario, Regional e Institucional, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 49-82, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
  76. Peter H. Sullivan, 2013. "Finding a Connection Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals, How Should We Model Revisions to Forecasting Strategies?," 2013 Papers psu387, Job Market Papers.
  77. Reed, Jason R., 2019. "The forward premium puzzle and Markov-switching adaptive learning," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-17.
  78. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
  79. Tolhurst, Tor N., 2018. "A Model-Free Bubble Detection Method: Application to the World Market for Superstar Wines," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274387, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  80. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
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  83. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
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  85. Gary Gorton & James Dow, 1991. "Trading, Communication and the Response of Price to New Information," NBER Working Papers 3687, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  86. Dimitris Kirikos, 1996. "The role of the forecast-generating process in assessing asset market models of the exchange rate: a non-linear case," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 125-144.
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