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Jump-diffusion model of exchange rate dynamics : estimation via indirect inference

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  • Jiang, George J.

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

This paper investigates asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle. A two-state Markov Switching Model is employed to model both recessions and expansions. For the United States and Germany, strong evidence is found that monetary policy is more effective in a recession than during a boom. Also some evidence is found for asymmetry in the United Kingdom and Belgium. In the Netherlands, monetary policy is not very effective in either regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, George J., 1998. "Jump-diffusion model of exchange rate dynamics : estimation via indirect inference," Research Report 98A40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    • Handle: RePEc:gro:rugsom:98a40
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    File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/174869231
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chien-Hsiu Lin & Shih-Kuei Lin & An-Chi Wu, 2015. "Foreign exchange option pricing in the currency cycle with jump risks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 755-789, May.
    2. Tomáš Bunčák, 2016. "Exchange Rates Forecasting: Can Jump Models Combined with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Help?," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(5), pages 527-546.
    3. Yoel Hecht & Helena Pompushko, 2005. "Normality, Modal Risk Level, and Exchange-Rate Jumps," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2005.01b, Bank of Israel.
    4. Sandun Perera & Winston Buckley & Hongwei Long, 2018. "Market-reaction-adjusted optimal central bank intervention policy in a forex market with jumps," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(1), pages 213-238, March.
    5. Mi-Hsiu Chiang & Chang-Yi Li & Son-Nan Chen, 2016. "Pricing currency options under double exponential jump diffusion in a Markov-modulated HJM economy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 459-482, April.
    6. Bunčák, Tomáš, 2013. "Jump Processes in Exchange Rates Modeling," MPRA Paper 49882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tomáš Bunčák, . "Exchange Rates Forecasting: Can Jump Models Combined with Macroeconomic Fundamentals Help?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-20.

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