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Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles

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  • Simon van Norden

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

This paper develops a new test for speculative bubbles, which is applied to data for the Japanese yen, the German mark and the Canadian dollar exchange rates from 1977 to 1991. The test assumes that bubbles display aparticular kind of regime-switching behaviour, which is shown to imply coefficient restrictions on a simple switching-regression model of exchange rate innovations. Test results are sensitive to the specification of exchange rate fundamentals and other factors. Evidence most consistent with the bubble hypothesis is found using an overshooting model of the Canadian dollar and a PPP model of the Japanese yen.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon van Norden, 1995. "Regime Switching as a Test for Exchange Rate Bubbles," Econometrics 9502001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Aug 1995.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpem:9502001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
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