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Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility
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Cited by:
- David Alaminos & M. Belén Salas & Manuel A. Fernández-Gámez, 2022. "Quantum Computing and Deep Learning Methods for GDP Growth Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 803-829, February.
- Valentina Aprigliano & Alessandro Borin & Francesco Paolo Conteduca & Simone Emiliozzi & Marco Flaccadoro & Sabina Marchetti & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Forecasting Italian GDP growth with epidemiological data," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2020. "Nowcasting Tail Risks to Economic Activity with Many Indicators," Working Papers 20-13R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 22 Sep 2020.
- Timmermann, Allan & Pettenuzzo, Davide & Valkanov, Rossen, 2014.
"A Bayesian MIDAS Approach to Modeling First and Second Moment Dynamics,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
10160, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Rossen Valkanov & Allan Timmermann, 2014. "A Bayesian MIDAS Approach to Modeling First and Second Moment Dynamics," Working Papers 76, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Jonas Krampe & Luca Margaritella, 2021. "Factor Models with Sparse VAR Idiosyncratic Components," Papers 2112.07149, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
- Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnák, 2016.
"Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models,"
Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 165-185, December.
- Michal Franta & David Havrlant & Marek Rusnak, 2014. "Forecasting Czech GDP Using Mixed-Frequency Data Models," Working Papers 2014/08, Czech National Bank.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018.
"Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 799-815, December.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Marcellino Massimiliano, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," Working Papers (Old Series) 1622, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1639, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
- Valentina Aprigliano & Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2017.
"A daily indicator of economic growth for the euro area,"
International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1/2), pages 43-63.
- Valentina Aprigliano & Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino & Gianluigi Mazzi & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "A daily indicator of economic growth for the euro area," Working Papers 570, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan & Valkanov, Rossen, 2016. "A MIDAS approach to modeling first and second moment dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 315-334.
- Hassani, Hossein & Rua, António & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Thomakos, Dimitrios, 2019.
"Monthly forecasting of GDP with mixed-frequency multivariate singular spectrum analysis,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1263-1272.
- António Rua & Hossein Hassani, 2019. "Monthly Forecasting of GDP with Mixed Frequency Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis," Working Papers w201913, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2015.
"Realtime nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 178(4), pages 837-862, October.
- Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Papers (Old Series) 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Krist'of N'emeth & D'aniel Hadh'azi, 2024. "Generating density nowcasts for U.S. GDP growth with deep learning: Bayes by Backprop and Monte Carlo dropout," Papers 2405.15579, arXiv.org.
- Libero Monteforte & Valentina Raponi, 2019.
"Short‐term forecasts of economic activity: Are fortnightly factors useful?,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 207-221, April.
- Libero Monteforte & Valentina Raponi, 2018. "Short term forecasts of economic activity: are fortnightly factors useful?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1177, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Allayioti, Anastasia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2024. "The role of comovement and time-varying dynamics in forecasting commodity prices," Working Paper Series 2901, European Central Bank.
- Rusnák, Marek, 2016.
"Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
- Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank.
- Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmueller, 2020.
"Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 73-105, January.
- Christian Glocker & Philipp Wegmüller, 2017. "Business Cycle Dating and Forecasting with Real-time Swiss GDP Data," WIFO Working Papers 542, WIFO.
- Luiz Renato Lima & Lucas Lúcio Godeiro & Mohammed Mohsin, 2021. "Time-Varying Dictionary and the Predictive Power of FED Minutes," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(1), pages 149-181, January.
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013.
"Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237,
Elsevier.
- Reichlin, Lucrezia & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Banbura, Marta, 2012. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," CEPR Discussion Papers 9112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Bańbura, Marta & Modugno, Michele, 2013. "Now-casting and the real-time data flow," Working Paper Series 1564, European Central Bank.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-026, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Antolín-Díaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2024.
"Advances in nowcasting economic activity: The role of heterogeneous dynamics and fat tails,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
- Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2023. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: The Role of Heterogeneous Dynamics and Fat Tails," CEPR Discussion Papers 17800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013.
"A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
- Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Working Paper 2013/06, Norges Bank.
- Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2018.
"Business cycle narratives,"
Working Paper
2018/3, Norges Bank.
- Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2019. "Business Cycle Narratives," CESifo Working Paper Series 7468, CESifo.
- Ana Arencibia Pareja & Ana Gomez-Loscos & Mercedes de Luis López & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2020. "A Short Term Forecasting Model for the Spanish GDP and itsDemand Components," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 43(85), pages 1-30.
- Guido Bulligan & Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Pietro Cova & Davide Fantino & Alberto Locarno & Lisa Rodano, 2017. "The Bank of Italy econometric model: an update of the main equations and model elasticities," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1130, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
- repec:bny:wpaper:0044 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul Labonne, 2022. "Asymmetric Uncertainty: Nowcasting Using Skewness in Real-time Data," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2022-23, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
- Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017.
"Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
- Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," Discussion Papers 1604, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Jan 2016.
- Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 81869, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86243, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2016. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," Bank of England working papers 587, Bank of England.
- Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2022. "Bayesian Multivariate Quantile Regression with alternative Time-varying Volatility Specifications," Papers 2211.16121, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
- Jacopo Cimadomo & Antonello D'Agostino, 2016.
"Combining Time Variation and Mixed Frequencies: an Analysis of Government Spending Multipliers in Italy,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1276-1290, November.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2015. "Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy," Working Paper Series 1856, European Central Bank.
- Antonello D’Agostino & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2015. "Combining time-variation and mixed-frequencies: an analysis of government spending multipliers in Italy," Working Papers 7, European Stability Mechanism.
- Ankargren, Sebastian & Jonéus, Paulina, 2021.
"Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs,"
Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 97-113.
- Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Simulation smoothing for nowcasting with large mixed-frequency VARs," Papers 1907.01075, arXiv.org.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020.
"Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model,"
OECD Statistics Working Papers
2020/01, OECD Publishing.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
- Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An Extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," PSE Working Papers halshs-02443364, HAL.
- Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022.
"Monetary policy transmission and income inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1555-1585, August.
- Ahiadorme, Johnson Worlanyo, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission and income inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 104084, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Petrella, Ivan & Drechsel, Thomas & Antolin-Diaz, Juan, 2014. "Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain," CEPR Discussion Papers 10272, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fumio Hayashi & Yuta Tachi, 2023. "Nowcasting Japan’s GDP," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1699-1735, April.
- Hauber, Philipp, 2022. "Real-time nowcasting with sparse factor models," EconStor Preprints 251551, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
- Dhaene, Geert & Wu, Jianbin, 2020. "Incorporating overnight and intraday returns into multivariate GARCH volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(2), pages 471-495.
- Foroni, Claudia & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2015.
"Markov-switching mixed-frequency VAR models,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 692-711.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Foroni, Claudia, 2014. "Markov-Switching Mixed-Frequency VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 9815, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Han Liu & Yongjing Wang & Haiyan Song & Ying Liu, 2023. "Measuring tourism demand nowcasting performance using a monotonicity test," Tourism Economics, , vol. 29(5), pages 1302-1327, August.
- Andrea Carriero & Francesco Corsello & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2020. "The economic drivers of volatility and uncertainty," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1285, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- repec:bny:wpaper:0046 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cem Cakmakli & Hamza Demircan, 2020. "Using Survey Information for Improving the Density Nowcasting of US GDP with a Focus on Predictive Performance during Covid-19 Pandemic," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2016, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2020.
"Assessing nowcast accuracy of US GDP growth in real time: the role of booms and busts,"
Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 7-27, January.
- Boriss Siliverstovs, 2019. "Assessing Nowcast Accuracy of US GDP Growth in Real Time: The Role of Booms and Busts," Working Papers 2019/01, Latvijas Banka.
- Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016.
"Common Faith or Parting Ways? A Time Varying Parameters Factor Analysis of Euro-Area Inflation,"
Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 539-565,
Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
- Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "Common faith or parting ways? A time varying parameters factor analysis of euro-area inflation," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 1515, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
- Manu García & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2019. "Now-casting Spain," Working Papers 2019-03, FEDEA.
- Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
- Sebastian Ankargren & Paulina Jon'eus, 2019. "Estimating Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR Models," Papers 1912.02231, arXiv.org.
- Robert Lehmann & Magnus Reif & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2020. "ifoCAST: Der neue Prognosestandard des ifo Instituts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(11), pages 31-39, November.
- Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Fiedler, Salomon & Groll, Dominik & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Potjagailo, Galina, 2018. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2018 - Deutsche Wirtschaft näher am Limit [German Economy Spring 2018 - German economy closer to its limit]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Chenxing Li & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2024.
"An infinite hidden Markov model with stochastic volatility,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2187-2211, September.
- Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M & Yang, Qiao, 2022. "An Infinite Hidden Markov Model with Stochastic Volatility," MPRA Paper 115456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Leippold, Markus & Yang, Hanlin, 2019. "Particle filtering, learning, and smoothing for mixed-frequency state-space models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 25-41.
- repec:bny:wpaper:0064 is not listed on IDEAS