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Now-casting Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Manu García
  • Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez

Abstract

En este documento se resume la metodología del Nowcasting de Fedea. Se utiliza un modelo dinámico de factores bayesiano para generar predicciones en tiempo real de la tasa de crecimiento interanual del PIB de la economía española durante el trimestre en curso y el siguiente. La predicción incorpora la información disponible en 18 variables macroeconómicas y se actualiza cada vez que se publican nuevos datos de alguna de ellas.

Suggested Citation

  • Manu García & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2019. "Now-casting Spain," Working Papers 2019-03, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2019-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
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    5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H. Small, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Juan Antolin-Diaz & Thomas Drechsel & Ivan Petrella, 2017. "Tracking the Slowdown in Long-Run GDP Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 343-356, May.
    7. Jushan Bai & Peng Wang, 2015. "Identification and Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 221-240, April.
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    10. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David Small, 2008. "Nowcasting: the real time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6409, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-09 Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 81-156.
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