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Parimutuel betting markets as information aggregation devices: experimental results
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- Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
- Steven Gjerstad, 2004. "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," Microeconomics 0411002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Martin B. Haugh & Raghav Singal, 2021. "How to Play Fantasy Sports Strategically (and Win)," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 72-92, January.
- Németh, András, 2005. "Hírpiacok szimulációja [Simulation of news markets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 249-274.
- Barreda Tarrazona, Iván J. & Grimalda, Gianluca & Morone, Andrea & Nuzzo, Simone & Teglio, Andrea, 2017. "Centralizing information improves market efficiency more than increasing information: Results from experimental asset markets," Kiel Working Papers 2072, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Martin Barner & Francesco Feri & Charles R. Plott, 2005.
"On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market,"
Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 73-107, January.
- Barner, Martin & Feri, Francesco & Plott, Charles, 2004. "On the Microstructure of Price Determination and Information Aggregation with Sequential and Asymmetric Information Arrival in an Experimental Asset Market," Working Papers 1204, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- McKenzie, Jordi, 2013. "Predicting box office with and without markets: Do internet users know anything?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 70-80.
- Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2005.
"Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1403-1426, December.
- Mathias Drehmann & Joerg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2002. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Experimental 0210001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Joerg & Roider, Andreas, 2003. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt6zf5469f, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas, 2004. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 7, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
- Mathias Drehmann & Jörg Oechssler, 2004. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 55, Econometric Society.
- Mathias Drehmann & Joerg Oechssler & Andreas Roider, 2002. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Finance 0210005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Roider, Andreas & Mathias Drehmann & Jorg Oechssler, 2003. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 177, Royal Economic Society.
- Drehmann, Mathias & Oechssler, Jörg & Roider, Andreas, 2002. "Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets: An Internet Experiment," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 25/2002, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
- Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2023.
"When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3697-3729, June.
- Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik O. Kimbrough, 2023. "When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?," Post-Print hal-04325683, HAL.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Information Aggregation and the Cognitive Make-up of Traders," Working Papers 20-18, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
- Frédéric Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2007.
"Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets,"
Papers on Strategic Interaction
2005-12, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
- Frédéric Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2012. "Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754582, HAL.
- Frederic Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2007. "Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," Jena Economics Research Papers 2007-033, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
- Frédéric Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2012. "Information Aggregation and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," Post-Print halshs-00754582, HAL.
- Johan Perols & Kaushal Chari & Manish Agrawal, 2009. "Information Market-Based Decision Fusion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 827-842, May.
- Enke, Benjamin & Schwerter, Frederik & Zimmermann, Florian, 2024. "Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
- Gordon Rausser & Leo Simon & Jinhua Zhao, 2015.
"Rational exaggeration and counter-exaggeration in information aggregation games,"
Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 59(1), pages 109-146, May.
- Rausser, Gordon C & Simon, Leo K & Zhao, Jinhua, 2015. "Rational exaggeration and counter-exaggeration in information aggregation games," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt1dv9r9t4, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020.
"The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2018. "The Distribution of Information and the Price Efficiency of Markets," Working Papers 18-09, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2019. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Post-Print halshs-02393564, HAL.
- Feeney, Rob & King, Stephen P., 2001.
"Sequential parimutuel games,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 165-173, August.
- Feeney, R. & King, S.P., 2000. "Sequential Parimutuel Games," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 736, The University of Melbourne.
- Frederic Koessler & Ch. Noussair & A. Ziegelmeyer, 2005. "Individual Behavior and Beliefs in Experimental Parimutuel Betting Markets," THEMA Working Papers 2005-08, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Martin Spann & Bernd Skiera, 2009. "Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 55-72.
- Johan Almenberg & Ken Kittlitz & Thomas Pfeiffer, 2009. "An Experiment on Prediction Markets in Science," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(12), pages 1-7, December.
- Koessler, Frédéric & Noussair, Charles & Ziegelmeyer, Anthony, 2008.
"Parimutuel betting under asymmetric information,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(7-8), pages 733-744, July.
- Frédéric KOESSLER & Anthony ZIEGELMEYER, 2002. "Parimutuel Betting under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers of BETA 2002-17, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Frederic Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2006. "Parimutuel Betting under Asymmetric Information," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2006-05, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
- Frederic Koessler & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2004. "Parimutuel Betting under Asymmetric Information," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2003-34, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group.
- Frédéric Koessler & Charles Noussair & Anthony Ziegelmeyer, 2008. "Parimutuel betting under asymmetric information," Post-Print halshs-00754275, HAL.
- Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020.
"The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
- Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2018. "The Distribution of Information and the Price Efficiency of Markets," Working Papers 18-09, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2019. "The Distribution of Information and the Price Efficiency of Markets," Post-Print hal-02312304, HAL.
- Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2019. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Post-Print halshs-02393564, HAL.
- Christopher P. Chambers & Federico Echenique & Alan D. Miller, 2023.
"Decreasing Impatience,"
American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 527-551, August.
- Christopher P. Chambers & Federico Echenique & Alan D. Miller, 2021. "Decreasing Impatience," Papers 2103.03290, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
- Chambers, Christopher P & Echenique, Federico & Miller, Alan D, 2023. "Decreasing Impatience," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2mk6969c, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Ottaviani, Marco & Sørensen, Peter Norman, 2003.
"Late Informed Betting and the Favourite-Longshot Bias,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sørensen, 2003. "Late Informed Betting and the Favorite-Longshot Bias," Discussion Papers 03-33, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Elena Asparouhova & Peter Bossaerts, 2017. "Experiments on Percolation of Information in Dark Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 518-544.
- Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2013.
"Experimental Research On Asset Pricing,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 554-569, July.
- Noussair, C.N. & Tucker, S., 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Discussion Paper 2013-020, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Noussair, C.N. & Tucker, S., 2013. "Experimental Research On Asset Pricing," Other publications TiSEM d5f4235c-17a8-407b-800b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Axelrod, Boris S. & Kulick, Ben J. & Plott, Charles R. & Roust, Kevin A., 2009. "The design of improved parimutuel-type information aggregation mechanisms: Inaccuracies and the long-shot bias as disequilibrium phenomena," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 170-181, February.
- Hedtrich, F. & Loy, J.-P. & Müller, R.A.E., 2010. "Prognosen auf Agrarmärkten: Prediction Markets – eine innovative Prognosemethode auch für die Landwirtschaft?," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 45, March.
- Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022.
"Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
- Giovanni Angelini & Luca De Angelis & Carl Singleton, 2019. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2019-20, Department of Economics, University of Reading, revised 01 Apr 2021.
- Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013.
"Prediction Markets In The Laboratory,"
Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 589-603, July.
- Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013. "Prediction Markets in the Laboratory," Working Papers 13-05, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
- Ronald Peeters & Leonard Wolk, 2019. "Elicitation of expectations using Colonel Blotto," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(1), pages 268-288, March.
- Kajii, Atsushi & Watanabe, Takahiro, 2017.
"Favorite–longshot bias in pari-mutuel betting: An evolutionary explanation,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 56-69.
- Atsushi Kajii & Takahiro Watanabe, 2014. "Favorite-Longshot Bias in Parimutuel Betting: an Evolutionary Explanation," KIER Working Papers 907, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Jason Shachat & Anthony Westerling, 2006.
"Information aggregation in a catastrophe futures market,"
Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 477-495.
- Jason Shachat & Anthony Westerling, 2004. "Information Aggregation in a Catastrophe Futures Markets," Experimental 0403002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2021.
"Information aggregation and the cognitive make-up of market participants,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Brice Corgnet & Mark Desantis & David Porter, 2021. "Information Aggregation and the Cognitive Make-up of Market Participants," Post-Print hal-03188235, HAL.
- Alipourfard, Nazanin & Arendt, Beatrix & Benjamin, Daniel Jacob & Benkler, Noam & Bishop, Michael Metcalf & Burstein, Mark & Bush, Martin & Caverlee, James & Chen, Yiling & Clark, Chae, 2021. "Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence (SCORE)," SocArXiv 46mnb, Center for Open Science.
- Andrea Albertazzi & Friederike Mengel & Ronald Peeters, 2021. "Benchmarking information aggregation in experimental markets," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(4), pages 1500-1516, October.
- Sung, Ming-Chien & McDonald, David C.J. & Johnson, Johnnie E.V. & Tai, Chung-Ching & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2019. "Improving prediction market forecasts by detecting and correcting possible over-reaction to price movements," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(1), pages 389-405.
- David Court & Benjamin Gillen & Jordi McKenzie & Charles R. Plott, 2018.
"Two information aggregation mechanisms for predicting the opening weekend box office revenues of films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses,"
Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(1), pages 25-54, January.
- David Court & Benjamin Gillen & Jordi McKenzie & Charles Plott, 2015. "Two Information Aggregation Mechanisms for Predicting the Opening Weekend Box Office Revenues of Films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses," Natural Field Experiments 00541, The Field Experiments Website.
- Lambert, Nicolas S. & Langford, John & Wortman Vaughan, Jennifer & Chen, Yiling & Reeves, Daniel M. & Shoham, Yoav & Pennock, David M., 2015. "An axiomatic characterization of wagering mechanisms," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 389-416.
- Linardi, Sera, 2017. "Accounting for noise in the microfoundations of information aggregation," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 334-353.
- Katarína Kálovcová & Andreas Ortmann, 2009.
"Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox,"
Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 3(3), pages 33-44, December.
- Katarina Kalovcova & Andreas Ortmann, 2009. "Understanding the Plott-Wit-Yang Paradox," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp397, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Koessler, Frédéric & Noussair, Charles & Ziegelmeyer, Anthony, 2012. "Information aggregation and belief elicitation in experimental parimutuel betting markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 195-208.