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Bootstrap Conditional Distribution Tests In the Presence of Dynamic Misspecification
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Cited by:
- Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008.
"Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
08-050/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Discussion Papers 2008-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Dijk, D. van & Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-03, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013.
"Advances in Forecasting under Instability,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1203-1324,
Elsevier.
- Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Advances in Forecasting Under Instability," Working Papers 11-20, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Norman Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2006.
"Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output,"
Departmental Working Papers
200619, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 201103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Malte Knüppel, 2015.
"Evaluating the Calibration of Multi-Step-Ahead Density Forecasts Using Raw Moments,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 270-281, April.
- Knüppel, Malte, 2011. "Evaluating the calibration of multi-step-ahead density forecasts using raw moments," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,32, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Jonas Dovern & Hans Manner, 2020.
"Order‐invariant tests for proper calibration of multivariate density forecasts,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 440-456, June.
- Jonas Dovern & Hans Manner, 2018. "Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Graz Economics Papers 2018-09, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
- Jonas Dovern & Hans Manner, 2018. "Order Invariant Tests for Proper Calibration of Multivariate Density Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 7023, CESifo.
- Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2024. "Predictive ability tests with possibly overlapping models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(1).
- Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 510-514, October.
- Igor L. Kheifets, 2015.
"Specification tests for nonlinear dynamic models,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(1), pages 67-94, February.
- Igor Kheifets, 2014. "Specification Tests for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," Working Papers w0209, New Economic School (NES).
- Igor Kheifets, 2014. "Specification Tests for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1937, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2014.
- Igor Kheifets, 2014. "Specification Tests for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," Working Papers w0209, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Zaichao Du, 2016.
"Nonparametric bootstrap tests for independence of generalized errors,"
Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 55-83, February.
- Zaichao Du, 2009. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Tests for Independence of Generalized Errors," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-023, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2019.
"Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 638-657.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Economics Working Papers 1416, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2017.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2015. "Alternative Tests for Correct Specification of Conditional Predictive Densities," Working Papers 758, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Fabio Busetti, 2017.
"Quantile Aggregation of Density Forecasts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(4), pages 495-512, August.
- Fabio Busetti, 2014. "Quantile aggregation of density forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 979, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145547, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010.
"Combining inflation density forecasts,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
- Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper 2008/22, Norges Bank.
- Amisano, Gianni & Giacomini, Raffaella, 2007.
"Comparing Density Forecasts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 177-190, April.
- Gianni Amisano & Raffaella Giacomini, 2005. "Comparing Density Forecsts via Weighted Likelihood Ratio Tests," Working Papers ubs0504, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Lan Bai & Xiafei Li & Yu Wei & Guiwu Wei, 2022. "Does crude oil futures price really help to predict spot oil price? New evidence from density forecasting," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3694-3712, July.
- Gordy, Michael B. & McNeil, Alexander J., 2020.
"Spectral backtests of forecast distributions with application to risk management,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
- Michael B. Gordy & Alexander J. McNeil, 2017. "Spectral backtests of forecast distributions with application to risk management," Papers 1708.01489, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2019.
- Michael B. Gordy & Alexander J. McNeil, 2018. "Spectral Backtests of Forecast Distributions with Application to Risk Management," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-021, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Nii Ayi Armah & Norman Swanson, 2010.
"Seeing Inside the Black Box: Using Diffusion Index Methodology to Construct Factor Proxies in Large Scale Macroeconomic Time Series Environments,"
Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5-6), pages 476-510.
- Nii Ayi Armah & Norman R. Swanson, 2008. "Seeing inside the black box: Using diffusion index methodology to construct factor proxies in large scale macroeconomic time series environments," Working Papers 08-25, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Seeing Inside the Black Box: Using Diffusion Index Methodology to Construct Factor Proxies in Largescale Macroeconomic Time Series Environments," Departmental Working Papers 201105, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Lee, Tae-Hwy & Mishra, Santosh, 2004. "Forecasting volatility: A reality check based on option pricing, utility function, value-at-risk, and predictive likelihood," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 629-645.
- Ricardo Gonçalves Silva, 2004. "Bayesian Semiparametric Regression for Autoregressive Models with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrics 0405002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2013.
"Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 199-212.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2013. "Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Economics Working Papers 1368, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sehkposyan, 2013. "Conditional Predictive Density Evaluation in the Presence of Instabilities," Working Papers 688, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adél Bosch & Rangan Gupta & Francois Stofberg, 2013.
"The out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear models of real exchange rate behaviour: The case of the South African Rand,"
European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 10(1), pages 121-148, April.
- Goodness C. Aye & Mehmet Balcilar & Adel Bosch & Rangan Gupta & Francois Stofberg, 2013. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of non-linear models of real exchange rate behaviour: The case of the South African Rand," Working Papers 201304, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Perez-Rodriguez, Jorge V. & Torra, Salvador & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 2005. "STAR and ANN models: forecasting performance on the Spanish "Ibex-35" stock index," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 490-509, June.
- Gergely Akos Ganics, 2017. "Optimal density forecast combinations," Working Papers 1751, Banco de España.
- Xiao-Ming Li & Qing Xu, 2007. "Evaluating density forecasts of the model with a conditional skewed-t distribution for China's stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 213-227.
- Kheifets, Igor & Velasco, Carlos, 2017.
"New goodness-of-fit diagnostics for conditional discrete response models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 135-149.
- Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2013. "New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1924, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2017. "New Goodness-of-fit Diagnostics for Conditional Discrete Response Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1924R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2012. "Efficient evaluation of multidimensional time-varying density forecasts, with applications to risk management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 343-352.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2004.
"Some recent developments in predictive accuracy testing with nested models and (generic) nonlinear alternatives,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 185-199.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "Some Recent Developments in Predictive Accuracy Testing With Nested Models and (Generic) Nonlinear Alternatives," Departmental Working Papers 200316, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Goncalves, Silvia & White, Halbert, 2004.
"Maximum likelihood and the bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 199-219, March.
- Goncalves, Silvia & White, Halbert, 2000. "Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1bj657ff, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Goncalves, Silvia & White, Halbert, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8hx21540, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Silvia Gonçalves & Halbert White, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-41, CIRANO.
- Xiangjin Shen & Hiroki Tsurumi, 2011. "Comparison of Bayesian Model Selection Criteria and Conditional Kolmogorov Test as Applied to Spot Asset Pricing Models," Departmental Working Papers 201126, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Shaw, Charles, 2018. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in crypto-asset returns," MPRA Paper 90437, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Li, Fuchun, 2007.
"Testing The Parametric Specification Of The Diffusion Function In A Diffusion Process,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 221-250, April.
- Fuchun Li, 2005. "Testing the Parametric Specification of the Diffusion Function in a Diffusion Process," Staff Working Papers 05-35, Bank of Canada.
- Charles Shaw, 2018. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in crypto-asset returns," Papers 1804.07978, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
- Alexander, Carol & Lazar, Emese & Stanescu, Silvia, 2021. "Analytic moments for GJR-GARCH (1, 1) processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 105-124.
- Kheifets, Igor L., 2018. "Multivariate specification tests based on a dynamic Rosenblatt transform," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-14.
- Han, Heejoon & Linton, Oliver & Oka, Tatsushi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2016.
"The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 251-270.
- Heejoon Han & Oliver Linton & Tatsushi Oka & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2014. "The cross-quantilogram: measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," CeMMAP working papers 06/14, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Heejoon Han & Oliver Linton & Tatsushi Oka & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2014. "The cross-quantilogram: measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," CeMMAP working papers CWP06/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Heejoon Han & Oliver Linton & Tatsushi Oka & Yoon-Jae Whang, 2014. "The Cross-Quantilogram: Measuring Quantile Dependence and Testing Directional Predictability between Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1452, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2012.
"Model Adequacy Checks for Discrete Choice Dynamic Models,"
Working Papers
w0170, New Economic School (NES).
- Igor Kheifets & Carlos Velasco, 2012. "Model Adequacy Checks for Discrete Choice Dynamic Models," Working Papers w0170, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Perera, Indeewara & Silvapulle, Mervyn J., 2023. "Bootstrap specification tests for dynamic conditional distribution models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 949-971.
- Lee, Seojeong, 2014.
"Asymptotic refinements of a misspecification-robust bootstrap for generalized method of moments estimators,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 398-413.
- Seojeong Lee, 2013. "Asymptotic Refinements of a Misspecification-Robust Bootstrap for Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Discussion Papers 2013-09, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Seojeong Lee, 2018. "Asymptotic Refinements of a Misspecification-Robust Bootstrap for Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Papers 1806.01450, arXiv.org.
- Ko, Stanley I.M. & Park, Sung Y., 2013. "Multivariate density forecast evaluation: A modified approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 431-441.
- Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0608, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2006.
"Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust To Parameter Instability,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 20-38, February.
- Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," Data 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barbara Rossi, 2005. "Are Exchange Rates Really Random Walks? Some Evidence Robust to Parameter Instability," International Finance 0503006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael P. Clements, 2017.
"Assessing Macro Uncertainty in Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 420-433, July.
- Michael P. Clements, 2015. "Assessing Macro Uncertainty In Real-Time When Data Are Subject To Revision," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2015-02, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
- Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
- González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "A Test for Comparing Multiple Misspecified Conditional Distributions," Departmental Working Papers 200314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Liu, Li & Bu, Ruijun & Pan, Zhiyuan & Xu, Yuhua, 2019. "Are financial returns really predictable out-of-sample?: Evidence from a new bootstrap test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 124-135.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006.
"Predictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy tests,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 187-228.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predective Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests," Departmental Working Papers 200423, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Dr. James Mitchell, 2008. "Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 320, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Delgado, Miguel A. & Carlos Escanciano, J., 2007. "Nonparametric tests for conditional symmetry in dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 652-682, December.
- Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2011.
"Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 215-230, August.
- Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Post-Print hal-00834423, HAL.
- Zhiyuan Pan & Xianchao Sun, 2014. "Hedging Strategy Using Copula and Nonparametric Methods: Evidence from China Securities Index Futures," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 107-121.
- Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2004. "A test for the distributional comparison of simulated and historical data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 185-193, November.
- Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2014. "A unified approach to validating univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 22-44.
- Jason Brown & Nida Çakır Melek & Johannes Matschke & Sai Sattiraju, 2023. "The Missing Tail Risk in Option Prices," Research Working Paper RWP 23-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- esposito, francesco paolo & cummins, mark, 2015. "Multiple hypothesis testing of market risk forecasting models," MPRA Paper 64986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zhang, Shulin & Song, Peter X.-K. & Shi, Daimin & Zhou, Qian M., 2012. "Information ratio test for model misspecification on parametric structures in stochastic diffusion models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(12), pages 3975-3987.
- Herman J. Bierens & Li Wang, 2017. "Weighted simulated integrated conditional moment tests for parametric conditional distributions of stationary time series processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1-3), pages 103-135, March.
- Kolassa, Stephan, 2016. "Evaluating predictive count data distributions in retail sales forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 788-803.
- Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
- Bhardwaj, Geetesh & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2008.
"A Simulation-Based Specification Test for Diffusion Processes,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 176-193, April.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson & Geetesh Bhardwaj, 2006. "A Simulation Based Specification Test for Diffusion Processes," Departmental Working Papers 200614, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.