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Discounting the Distant Future: How Much Do Uncertain Rates Increase Valuations?

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Cited by:

  1. Pizer, William A. & Kopp, Raymond, 2005. "Calculating the Costs of Environmental Regulation," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1307-1351, Elsevier.
  2. Hepburn, Cameron & Groom, Ben, 2007. "Gamma discounting and expected net future value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 99-109, January.
  3. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2020. "Checking the Evidence for Declining Discount Rates," MPRA Paper 102233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Wahba, Mohammed & Hope, Chris, 2006. "The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3305-3316, November.
  5. Farsi, Mehdi, 2010. "Risk aversion and willingness to pay for energy efficient systems in rental apartments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3078-3088, June.
  6. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel & Zilberman, David, 2015. "Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 394-406.
  7. Gluzberg, Victor E. & Katz, Yuri A., 2019. "Planetary boundaries of consumption growth: Declining social discount rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 521(C), pages 362-374.
  8. Gollier, Christian, 2012. "A theory of rational short-termism with uncertain betas," LERNA Working Papers 12.14.371, LERNA, University of Toulouse.
  9. Gollier, Christian, 2010. "Expected net present value, expected net future value, and the Ramsey rule," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 142-148, March.
  10. Michael, Jeffrey A., 2007. "Episodic flooding and the cost of sea-level rise," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 149-159, June.
  11. Steve Newbold & Charles Griffiths & Christopher C. Moore & Ann Wolverton & Elizabeth Kopits, 2010. "The "Social Cost of Carbon" Made Simple," NCEE Working Paper Series 201007, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Aug 2010.
  12. Kevin Rennert & Brian C. Prest & William A. Pizer & Richard G. Newell & David Anthoff & Cora Kingdon & Lisa Rennels & Roger Cooke & Adrian E. Raftery & Hana Sevcikova & Frank Errickson, 2021. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 223-305.
  13. Richard G. Newell & William A. Pizer & Brian C. Prest, 2022. "A Discounting Rule for the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(5), pages 1017-1046.
  14. Phoebe Koundouri & Amerissa Giannouli & Laura Airoldi & Bilge Bas & Stefanie Broszeit & Nilay Elginoz & Elias Giannakis & Fabio Zagonari & Yukiko Krontira & Aris Moussoulides & Stella Tsani & Dimitris, 2017. "Socio-economic Analysis of a Selected Multi-use Offshore Site in the Mediterranean Sea," DEOS Working Papers 1717, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  15. Phoebe Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis & Ben Groom & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "Discounting the distant future: How much does model selection affect the certainty equivalent rate?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 641-656.
  16. Eric Fesselmeyer & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2022. "Declining discount rates in Singapore's market for privately developed apartments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 330-350, March.
  17. Ermoliev, Y. & Ermolieva, T. & Fischer, G. & Makowski, M. & Nilsson, S. & Obersteiner, M., 2008. "Discounting, catastrophic risks management and vulnerability modeling," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(4), pages 917-924.
  18. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2020. "Discounting And Climate Policy," OxCarre Working Papers 244, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  19. Mark A. Moore & Anthony E. Boardman & Aidan R. Vining & David L. Weimer & David H. Greenberg, 2004. "“Just give me a number!” Practical values for the social discount rate," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 789-812.
  20. Tol, Richard S. J., 2008. "The Social Cost of Carbon: Trends, Outliers and Catastrophes," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-22.
  21. Christian Gollier & Phoebe Koundouri & Theologos Pantelidis, 2008. "Declining discount rates: Economic justifications and implications for long-run policy [‘Regime switches in interest rates’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 23(56), pages 758-795.
  22. Kollenberg, Sascha & Taschini, Luca, 2016. "Emissions trading systems with cap adjustments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 20-36.
  23. Sun, Lili & van Kooten, G. Cornelis & Voss, Graham M., 2005. "Divergence between WTA and WTP Revisited: Livestock Grazing on Public Range," Working Papers 37014, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
  24. Hultkrantz, Lars & A. Krüger, Niclas & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2014. "Risk-adjusted long-term social rates of discount for transportation infrastructure investment," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 70-81.
  25. Lawrence H. Goulder & Roberton C. Williams, 2012. "The Choice Of Discount Rate For Climate Change Policy Evaluation," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(04), pages 1-18.
  26. Roger Cooke, 2013. "Uncertainty analysis comes to integrated assessment models for climate change…and conversely," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 467-479, April.
  27. Koen Vermeylen, 2013. "The Consumption Discount Rate for the Distant Future (if we do not die out)," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-201/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
  28. J. Doyne Farmer & John Geanakoplos & Matteo G. Richiardi & Miquel Montero & Josep Perelló & Jaume Masoliver, 2024. "Discounting the Distant Future: What Do Historical Bond Prices Imply about the Long-Term Discount Rate?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-25, February.
  29. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2015. "Declining discount rates and the Fisher Effect: Inflated past, discounted future?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 32-49.
  30. Defrancesco, Edi & Gatto, Paola & Rosato, Paolo, 2014. "A ‘component-based’ approach to discounting for natural resource damage assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-9.
  31. Stavins, Robert & Barrett, Scott & Aldy, Joseph, 2003. "13 + 1: A Comparison of Global Climate Change Policy Architectures," RFF Working Paper Series dp-03-26, Resources for the Future.
  32. Knoke, Thomas & Gosling, Elizabeth & Paul, Carola, 2020. "Use and misuse of the net present value in environmental studies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
  33. Tol, Richard S.J., 2013. "Targets for global climate policy: An overview," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 911-928.
  34. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Emmerling, Johannes & Groom, Ben, 2022. "The Social Cost of Carbon with Intragenerational Inequality under Economic Uncertainty," RFF Working Paper Series 22-08, Resources for the Future.
  35. Parry, Ian W H & Pizer, William A & Fischer, Carolyn, 2003. "How Large Are the Welfare Gains from Technological Innovation Induced by Environmental Policies?," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 237-255, May.
  36. Dosi, Cesare, 2001. "Environmental value, valuation methods, and natural disaster damage assessment," Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo 5722, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
  37. Mahkameh Zarekarizi & Vivek Srikrishnan & Klaus Keller, 2020. "Neglecting Uncertainties Biases House-Elevation Decisions to Manage Riverine Flood Risks," Papers 2001.06457, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
  38. Sun, Lili & van Kooten, G. Cornelis & Voss, Graham M., 2009. "What accounts for the divergence between ranchers' WTA and WTP for public forage?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 271-279, July.
  39. Gollier, Christian, 2004. "The Consumption-Based Determinants of the Term Structure of Discount Rates," IDEI Working Papers 296, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  40. Hansen, Anders Chr., 2006. "Do declining discount rates lead to time inconsistent economic advice?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 138-144, November.
  41. Jarisch, Isabelle & Bödeker, Kai & Bingham, Logan Robert & Friedrich, Stefan & Kindu, Mengistie & Knoke, Thomas, 2022. "The influence of discounting ecosystem services in robust multi-objective optimization – An application to a forestry-avocado land-use portfolio," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  42. Ben Groom & David Maddison Pr., 2019. "New Estimates of the Elasticity of Marginal Utility for the UK," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(4), pages 1155-1182, April.
  43. Wojciech Rybicki, 2012. "Discounting and ideas of intergenerational equity and sustainability," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 22(1), pages 63-84.
  44. Lint Barrage, 2019. "The Nobel Memorial Prize for William D. Nordhaus," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(3), pages 884-924, July.
  45. Mikhail Pakhnin, 2021. "Collective Choice with Heterogeneous Time Preferences," CESifo Working Paper Series 9141, CESifo.
  46. Moritz Drupp & Mark Freeman & Ben Groom & Frikk Nesje, 2015. "Discounting disentangled: an expert survey on the determinants of the long-term social discount rate," GRI Working Papers 196a, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  47. Gollier, Christian, 2009. "Should we Discount the Far-Distant Future at its Lowest Possible Rate?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-14.
  48. Blasch, Julia & Ohndorf, Markus, 2015. "Altruism, moral norms and social approval: Joint determinants of individual offset behavior," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 251-260.
  49. Christian Gollier, 2008. "Discounting with fat-tailed economic growth," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 171-186, December.
  50. Colin Hunt & Seth Baum, 2009. "The ‘hidden’ social costs of forestry offsets," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 107-120, February.
  51. Gulli, Francesco, 2006. "Social choice, uncertainty about external costs and trade-off between intergenerational environmental impacts: The emblematic case of gas-based energy supply decentralization," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 282-305, May.
  52. Koundouri, Phoebe & Groom, Ben, 2009. "Sustainability and the Economics of the Environment: Cost-Benefit Analysis and the Dynamics of the Long-Run Discount Rate," MPRA Paper 38278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Martin Weitzman, 2012. "The Ramsey Discounting Formula for a Hidden-State Stochastic Growth Process," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 53(3), pages 309-321, November.
  54. Lars Peter Hansen, 2008. "Modeling the Long Run: Valuation in Dynamic Stochastic Economies," NBER Working Papers 14243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Matsushita, Kyohei & Yamane, Fumihiro, 2012. "Pollution from the electric power sector in Japan and efficient pollution reduction," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1124-1130.
  56. Ben Groom & Phoebe Koundouri & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Theologos Pantelidis, 2005. "Declining Discount Rates: Evidence from the UK," DEOS Working Papers 0503, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  57. Laurie Johnson & Chris Hope, 2012. "The social cost of carbon in U.S. regulatory impact analyses: an introduction and critique," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 2(3), pages 205-221, September.
  58. Owen, Anthony D., 2006. "Renewable energy: Externality costs as market barriers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 632-642, March.
  59. Hultkrantz, Lars & Mantalos, Panagiotis, 2018. "Hedging with trees: Tail-hedge discounting of long-term forestry returns," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 52-57.
  60. David Anthoff & Richard Tol, 2009. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Balanced Growth Equivalent: An Application of FUND," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 351-367, July.
  61. Richard B. Howarth, 2009. "Discounting, Uncertainty, and Revealed Time Preference," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 24-40.
  62. Cass R. Sunstein, 2014. "On Not Revisiting Official Discount Rates: Institutional Inertia and the Social Cost of Carbon," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 547-551, May.
  63. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Cropper, Maureen L. & Gollier, Christian & Groom, Ben & Heal, Geoffrey M. & Newell, Richard G. & Nordhaus, William D. & Pindyck, Robert S. & Pizer, William A. & Portney, Paul R. & , 2012. "How Should Benefits and Costs Be Discounted in an Intergenerational Context? The Views of an Expert Panel," RFF Working Paper Series dp-12-53, Resources for the Future.
  64. Marten, Alex L. & Newbold, Stephen C., 2012. "Estimating the social cost of non-CO2 GHG emissions: Methane and nitrous oxide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 957-972.
  65. Robert S. Pindyck, 2006. "Uncertainty In Environmental Economics," NBER Working Papers 12752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Jin, Jianjun & Wan, Xinyu & Lin, Yongsheng & Kuang, Foyuan & Ning, Jing, 2019. "Public willingness to pay for the research and development of solar energy in Beijing, China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  67. Zhu, Xueqin & Smulders, Sjak & de Zeeuw, Aart, 2019. "Discounting in the presence of scarce ecosystem services," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
  68. Szekeres, Szabolcs, 2022. "Answering the social discount rate question," MPRA Paper 115848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  69. Barrage, Lint, 2018. "Be careful what you calibrate for: Social discounting in general equilibrium," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 33-49.
  70. Yuri Ermoliev & Tatiana Ermolieva & Guenther Fischer & Marek Makowski, 2010. "Extreme events, discounting and stochastic optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 9-19, June.
  71. Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2005. "Economic growth and the environment," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 23, pages 1219-1271, Elsevier.
  72. Паламарчук Е.С., 2013. "Оценка Риска В Линейных Экономических Системах При Отрицательных Временных Предпочтениях," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 49(3), pages 99-116, июль.
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  75. Kolstad, Charles D. & Toman, Michael, 2005. "The Economics of Climate Policy," Handbook of Environmental Economics, in: K. G. Mäler & J. R. Vincent (ed.), Handbook of Environmental Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1561-1618, Elsevier.
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  80. Gollier, Christian & Weitzman, Martin L., 2010. "How should the distant future be discounted when discount rates are uncertain?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 350-353, June.
  81. Karp, Larry, 2005. "Global warming and hyperbolic discounting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 261-282, February.
  82. Maureen L. Cropper & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom & William A. Pizer, 2014. "Declining Discount Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 538-543, May.
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  86. Pedro Diaz Simal & Saul Torres Ortega & Bilge Bas & Nilay Elginoz & Raul Guanche Garcia & Fernando Del-Jesus & Elias Giannakis & Amerissa Giannouli & Phoebe Koundouri & Aris Moussoulides & Stella Tsan, 2017. "Socio-economic Assessment of a Selected Multi-use Offshore Site in the Atlantic," DEOS Working Papers 1716, Athens University of Economics and Business.
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  118. Trapnell, Lindsay N. & Malcolm, Bill, 2008. "Net Benefits from growing lucerne (Medicago sativa) on the Broken Plains of north eastern Victoria," 2008 Conference (52nd), February 5-8, 2008, Canberra, Australia 5972, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  119. Jolanta Bijańska & Krzysztof Wodarski & Aneta Aleksander, 2022. "Analysis of the Financing Options for Pro-Ecological Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-30, March.
  120. Freeman, Mark C. & Groom, Ben, 2016. "How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent long term social discount rate?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 152-168.
  121. Gabriella Maselli & Antonio Nesticò, 2021. "The Role of Discounting in Energy Policy Investments," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-18, September.
  122. Katz, Yuri A., 2017. "Value of the distant future: Model-independent results," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 269-276.
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  125. David Pearce & Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri, 2003. "Valuing the Future: Recent advances in social discounting," DEOS Working Papers 0308, Athens University of Economics and Business.
  126. Desheng Wu & Shuzhen Chen, 2017. "Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(8), pages 1522-1531, August.
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