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A Discounting Rule for the Social Cost of Carbon

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  • Richard G. Newell
  • William A. Pizer
  • Brian C. Prest

Abstract

We develop a discounting rule for estimating the social cost of carbon (SCC) given uncertain economic growth. Diminishing marginal utility of income implies a relationship between the discount rate term structure and economic growth uncertainty. In the classic Ramsey framework, this relationship is governed by parameters reflecting pure time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, yet disagreement remains about the values of these parameters. We calibrate these parameters to match empirical evidence on both the future interest rate term structure and economic growth uncertainty, while also maintaining consistency with discount rates used for shorter-term benefit-cost analysis. Such an integrated approach is crucial amid growth uncertainty, where growth is also a key determinant of climate damages. This results in an empirically driven, stochastic discounting rule to be used in estimating the SCC that also accounts for the correlation between climate damage estimates and discount rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard G. Newell & William A. Pizer & Brian C. Prest, 2022. "A Discounting Rule for the Social Cost of Carbon," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(5), pages 1017-1046.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/718145
    DOI: 10.1086/718145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Discounting the distant future: how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 52-71, July.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1983. "Stochastic Consumption, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Asset Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 249-265, April.
    3. William Nordhaus, 2014. "Estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon: Concepts and Results from the DICE-2013R Model and Alternative Approaches," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 000.
    4. Dario Caldara & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Wen Yao, 2012. "Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 188-206, April.
    5. Thomas S. Lontzek & Yongyang Cai & Kenneth L. Judd & Timothy M. Lenton, 2015. "Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 441-444, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard G. Newell & William A. Pizer & Brian C. Prest, 2024. "The Shadow Price of Capital: Accounting for Capital Displacement in Benefit-Cost Analysis," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(1), pages 49-69.
    2. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2024. "Land-use, climate change and the emergence of infectious diseases: A synthesis," DEOS Working Papers 2409, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    3. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Emmerling, Johannes & Groom, Ben, 2022. "The Social Cost of Carbon with Intragenerational Inequality under Economic Uncertainty," RFF Working Paper Series 22-08, Resources for the Future.
    4. Sterner, Thomas & Ewald, Jens & Sterner, Erik, 2024. "Economists and the climate," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Prest, Brian C., 2023. "Disentangling the Roles of Growth Uncertainty, Discounting, and the Climate Beta on the Social Cost of Carbon," RFF Working Paper Series 23-41, Resources for the Future.
    6. Rennels, Lisa & Rennert, Kevin & Errickson, Frank & Anthoff, David & Wingenroth, Jordan & Prest, Brian C., 2024. "Accounting for Biodiversity Loss Raises the Social Cost of CO2," RFF Working Paper Series 24-23, Resources for the Future.
    7. Adam Michael Bauer & Cristian Proistosescu & Gernot Wagner, 2023. "Carbon Dioxide as a Risky Asset," CESifo Working Paper Series 10278, CESifo.
    8. Christian Azar & Jorge García Martín & Daniel JA. Johansson & Thomas Sterner, 2023. "The social cost of methane," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-22, June.
    9. Christian P. Fries & Lennart Quante, 2023. "Intergenerational Equitable Climate Change Mitigation: Negative Effects of Stochastic Interest Rates; Positive Effects of Financing," Papers 2312.07614, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
    10. Frikk Nesje & Moritz A. Drupp & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom, 2024. "Sense and Sensitivity: An Argument Against Reporting Multiple Net Present Values," CESifo Working Paper Series 11547, CESifo.
    11. Petersen, Claire & Reguant, Mar & Segura, Lola, 2024. "Measuring the impact of wind power and intermittency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2023. "Natural world preservation and infectious diseases: Land-use, climate change and innovation," DEOS Working Papers 2319, Athens University of Economics and Business.

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