IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/annopr/v177y2010i1p9-1910.1007-s10479-009-0606-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Extreme events, discounting and stochastic optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Yuri Ermoliev
  • Tatiana Ermolieva
  • Guenther Fischer
  • Marek Makowski

Abstract

The paper analyzes the implications of extreme events on the proper choice of discounting. Any discounting with constant or declining rates can be linked to random “stopping time” events, which define the internal discount-related horizons of evaluations. Conversely, any stopping time induces a discounting, in particular, with the standard discount rates. The expected duration of the stopping time horizon for discount rates obtained from capital markets does not exceed a few decades and, as such, these rates may significantly underestimate the net benefits of long-term decisions. The alternative undiscounted stopping time criterion allows to induce social discounting focusing on arrival times of potential extreme events rather then horizons of market interests. Induced discount rates are conditional on the degree of social commitment to mitigate risk. In general, extreme events affect these rates, which alter the optimal mitigation efforts that, in turn, change events. The use of undiscounted stopping time criteria requires stochastic optimisation methods. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Yuri Ermoliev & Tatiana Ermolieva & Guenther Fischer & Marek Makowski, 2010. "Extreme events, discounting and stochastic optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 9-19, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:177:y:2010:i:1:p:9-19:10.1007/s10479-009-0606-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-009-0606-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10479-009-0606-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10479-009-0606-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Newell, Richard G. & Pizer, William A., 2003. "Discounting the distant future: how much do uncertain rates increase valuations?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 52-71, July.
    2. T.Y. Ermolieva, 1997. "The Design of Optimal Insurance Decisions in the Presence of Catastrophic Risks," Working Papers ir97068, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    3. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1996. "The Theory of Risk-Bearing: Small and Great Risks," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 12(2-3), pages 103-111, May.
    4. Y.M. Ermoliev & T.Y. Ermolieva & G.J. MacDonald & V.I. Norkin, 2000. "Stochastic Optimization of Insurance Portfolios for Managing Exposure to Catastrophic Risks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 99(1), pages 207-225, December.
    5. Shane Frederick & George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue, 2002. "Time Discounting and Time Preference: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 351-401, June.
    6. Y. Ermoliev & L. Hordijk, 2006. "Facets of Robust Decisions," Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, in: Coping with Uncertainty, pages 3-28, Springer.
    7. Kenneth A. Froot, 1997. "The Limited Financing of Catastrophe Risk: An Overview," NBER Working Papers 6025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Geoffrey Heal & Bengt Kriström, 2002. "Uncertainty and Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 22(1), pages 3-39, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anna Timonina, 2015. "Multi-stage stochastic optimization: the distance between stochastic scenario processes," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 171-195, January.
    2. Emilio L. Cano & Javier M. Moguerza & Tatiana Ermolieva & Yurii Yermoliev, 2017. "A strategic decision support system framework for energy-efficient technology investments," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 25(2), pages 249-270, July.
    3. Ludovic Gaudard & Franco Romerio, 2015. "Natural hazard risk in the case of an emergency: the real options’ approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 473-488, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ermoliev, Y. & Ermolieva, T. & Fischer, G. & Makowski, M. & Nilsson, S. & Obersteiner, M., 2008. "Discounting, catastrophic risks management and vulnerability modeling," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(4), pages 917-924.
    2. Tatiana Ermolieva & Yuri Ermoliev & Guenther Fischer & Istvan Galambos, 2003. "The Role of Financial Instruments in Integrated Catastrophic Flood Management," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 7(3-4), pages 207-230, September.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck, 2006. "Uncertainty In Environmental Economics," NBER Working Papers 12752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Ermoliev, Yuri M. & Ermolieva, Tatiana Y. & MacDonald, Gordon J. & Norkin, Vladimir I. & Amendola, Aniello, 2000. "A system approach to management of catastrophic risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 452-460, April.
    5. Hansen, Anders Chr., 2006. "Do declining discount rates lead to time inconsistent economic advice?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 138-144, November.
    6. Antonio Nesticò & Gabriella Maselli & Patrizia Ghisellini & Sergio Ulgiati, 2023. "A Dual Probabilistic Discounting Approach to Assess Economic and Environmental Impacts," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(1), pages 239-265, May.
    7. Knoke, Thomas & Paul, Carola & Härtl, Fabian, 2017. "A critical view on benefit-cost analyses of silvicultural management options with declining discount rates," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 58-69.
    8. Karp, Larry, 2005. "Global warming and hyperbolic discounting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 261-282, February.
    9. David Pearce & Ben Groom & Cameron Hepburn & Phoebe Koundouri, 2003. "Valuing the Future: Recent advances in social discounting," DEOS Working Papers 0308, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    10. Saez, Carmen Almansa & Requena, Javier Calatrava, 2007. "Reconciling sustainability and discounting in Cost-Benefit Analysis: A methodological proposal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 712-725, February.
    11. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    12. Dean T. Jamison & Julian Jamison, 2010. "Characterizing the amount and speed of discounting procedures," Working Papers 10-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Tatiana Ermolieva & Petr Havlik & Yuri Ermoliev & Nikolay Khabarov & Michael Obersteiner, 2021. "Robust Management of Systemic Risks and Food-Water-Energy-Environmental Security: Two-Stage Strategic-Adaptive GLOBIOM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.
    14. Groom, Ben & Hepburn, Cameron & Koundouri, Phoebe & Pearce, David, 2007. "Implications of declining discount rates: Climate Change Policy in the UK," MPRA Paper 38428, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    16. Defrancesco, Edi & Gatto, Paola & Rosato, Paolo, 2014. "A ‘component-based’ approach to discounting for natural resource damage assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 1-9.
    17. Gonzalo Edwards, 2003. "The effect of a constant or a declining discount rate on optimal investment timing," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(10), pages 657-659.
    18. Eric Fesselmeyer & Haoming Liu & Alberto Salvo, 2022. "Declining discount rates in Singapore's market for privately developed apartments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 330-350, March.
    19. Robert S. Pindyck, 2013. "The Climate Policy Dilemma," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 7(2), pages 219-237, July.
    20. Hepburn, Cameron & Koundouri, Phoebe & Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Pantelidis, Theologos, 2009. "Social discounting under uncertainty: A cross-country comparison," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 140-150, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:177:y:2010:i:1:p:9-19:10.1007/s10479-009-0606-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.