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Constructing Optimal Density Forecasts from Point Forecast Combinations

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Li, Li & Kang, Yanfei & Li, Feng, 2023. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1287-1302.
  2. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2022. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 29-50, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  3. Ramsey, A., 2018. "Conditional Distributions of Crop Yields: A Bayesian Approach for Characterizing Technological Change," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277253, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty," MPRA Paper 64341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2018. "Estimating inflation persistence by quantile autoregression with quantile-specific unit roots," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 407-430.
  6. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2023. "Forecasting inflation with a zero lower bound or negative interest rates: Evidence from point and density forecasts," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 91(3), pages 171-232, June.
  7. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2024. "Investigating Growth-at-Risk Using a Multicountry Nonparametric Quantile Factor Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 1302-1317, October.
  8. Laurent Ferrara & Joseph Yapi, 2022. "Measuring exchange rate risks during periods of uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 170, pages 202-212.
  9. Sokol, Andrej, 2021. "Fan charts 2.0: flexible forecast distributions with expert judgement," Working Paper Series 2624, European Central Bank.
  10. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Quantile forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-72, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  11. Fernando Eguren-Martin & Andrej Sokol, 2022. "Attention to the Tail(s): Global Financial Conditions and Exchange Rate Risks," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 487-519, September.
  12. Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin, 2016. "The Determinants of Equity Risk and Their Forecasting Implications: A Quantile Regression Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-25, July.
  13. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  14. Bonaccolto, G. & Caporin, M. & Gupta, R., 2018. "The dynamic impact of uncertainty in causing and forecasting the distribution of oil returns and risk," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 446-469.
  15. Alexander, Carol & Han, Yang & Meng, Xiaochun, 2023. "Static and dynamic models for multivariate distribution forecasts: Proper scoring rule tests of factor-quantile versus multivariate GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1078-1096.
  16. Erik Figueiredo & Luiz Renato Lima & Gianluca Orefice, 2016. "Migration and Regional Trade Agreements: A (New) Gravity Estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 99-125, February.
  17. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler & Silvia Maria Matos, 2017. "Applying a microfounded-forecasting approach to predict Brazilian inflation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 137-163, August.
  18. Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza & Marins, Jaqueline Terra Moura, 2017. "Evaluation of exchange rate point and density forecasts: An application to Brazil," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 707-728.
  19. Dimitris Korobilis & Maximilian Schroder, 2022. "Probabilistic Quantile Factor Analysis," Papers 2212.10301, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
  20. Niango Ange Joseph Yapi, 2020. "Exchange rate predictive densities and currency risks: A quantile regression approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-16, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  21. Verena Monschang & Bernd Wilfling, 2022. "A procedure for upgrading linear-convex combination forecasts with an application to volatility prediction," CQE Working Papers 9722, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
  22. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2014. "Microfounded Forecasting," Working Papers Series 372, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  23. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano, 2015. "On the conditional distribution of euro area inflation forecast," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1027, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  24. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Quantile regression forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 11-20.
  25. Luiz Renato Lima & Lucas Lúcio Godeiro, 2023. "Equity‐premium prediction: Attention is all you need," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(1), pages 105-122, January.
  26. González-Ordiano, Jorge Ángel & Mühlpfordt, Tillmann & Braun, Eric & Liu, Jianlei & Çakmak, Hüseyin & Kühnapfel, Uwe & Düpmeier, Clemens & Waczowicz, Simon & Faulwasser, Timm & Mikut, Ralf & Hagenmeye, 2021. "Probabilistic forecasts of the distribution grid state using data-driven forecasts and probabilistic power flow," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
  27. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén & Francisco Marcos Rodrigues Figueiredo, 2015. "Local Unit Root and Inflationary Inertia in Brazil," Working Papers Series 406, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  28. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2024. "A Quantile Nelson-Siegel model," Papers 2401.09874, arXiv.org.
  29. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  30. Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2022. "Modeling tail risks of inflation using unobserved component quantile regressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  31. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
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