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The High-Yield Spread as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity: Evidence of a Financial Accelerator for the United States

Citations

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Econometrics > Forecasting > Forecasting Economic Activity Using Financial Variables

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 47-54.
  2. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  3. Hännikäinen, Jari, 2017. "When does the yield curve contain predictive power? Evidence from a data-rich environment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1044-1064.
  4. Junttila, Juha & Vataja, Juuso, 2018. "Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 569-583.
  5. Mr. Andrew J Swiston, 2008. "A U.S. Financial Conditions Index: Putting Credit Where Credit is Due," IMF Working Papers 2008/161, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
  7. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2010. "Yield spreads as predictors of economic activity: a real-time VAR analysis," Working Papers 1008, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  8. Kang-Soek LEE, 2007. "A Common Currency for China, Japan and Korea? Evidence from Post-Crisis Macrostructural Shock Symmetry," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 158, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  9. Kang-Soek Lee & Philippe Saucier, 2011. "Should the UK Join the Euro Zone? Evidence from a Synthetic OCA Assessment," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 77-96, June.
  10. Pierre L. Siklos & Yang Zhang, 2010. "Identifying The Shocks Driving Inflation In China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(2), pages 204-223, May.
  11. P�r Österholm & P�r Stockhammar, 2014. "The euro crisis and Swedish GDP growth - a study of spillovers," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(16), pages 1105-1110, November.
  12. Alicia Garcia Herrero & Alvaro Ortiz, 2004. "The Role Of Global Risk Aversion In Explaining Latin American Sovereign Spreads," International Finance 0408001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Mody, Ashoka & Taylor, Mark P., 2007. "Regional vulnerability: The case of East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1292-1310, December.
  14. Mody, Ashoka & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P., 2007. "A cross-country financial accelerator: Evidence from North America and Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 149-165, February.
  15. Kevin Aretz & David A. Peel, 2010. "Spreads versus professional forecasters as predictors of future output change," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(6), pages 517-522.
  16. Sandra Lizarazo & Jose Maria Da-Rocha, 2009. "Money, Credit and Default," Working Papers 0908, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  17. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
  18. Kang-Soek Lee, 2011. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime?," Chapters, in: Wim Meeusen (ed.), The Economic Crisis and European Integration, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  19. P�r Österholm, 2014. "Survey data and short-term forecasts of Swedish GDP growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 135-139, January.
  20. De Graeve, Ferre, 2008. "The external finance premium and the macroeconomy: US post-WWII evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3415-3440, November.
  21. Kiss, Tamás & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "The Relation between the High-Yield Bond Spread and the Unemployment Rate in the Euro Area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
  22. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2016. "Effects of US policy uncertainty on Swedish GDP growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 443-462, March.
  23. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
  24. Christiano, Lawrence & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2010. "Financial factors in economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series 1192, European Central Bank.
  25. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
  26. Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann & Hang Thi Thu Vu, 2021. "The Relationship between Yield Curve and Economic Activity: An Analysis of G7 Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-23, February.
  27. repec:rim:rimwps:34-07 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Gustafsson, Peter & Stockhammar, Pär & Österholm, Pär, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of a decline in housing prices in Sweden," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 242-255.
  29. Sylvia Kaufmann & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2008. "Bank lending in Germany and the UK: are there differences between a bank-based and a market-based country?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(3), pages 266-279.
  30. Yimin Xu & Jakob de Haan, 2016. "Does the Fed's unconventional monetary policy weaken the link between the financial and the real sector?," DNB Working Papers 529, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  31. Massimo Ferrari Minesso & Laura Lebastard & Helena Mezo, 2023. "Text-Based Recession Probabilities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 415-438, June.
  32. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  33. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2013. "High yield spreads, real economic activity, and the financial accelerator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 346-355.
  34. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Papadamou, Stephanos & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2020. "The yield spread's ability to forecast economic activity: What have we learned after 30 years of studies?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 221-232.
  35. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
  36. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:513:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Angelos Kanas & Christos Ioannidis, 2010. "Causality from real stock returns to real activity: evidence of regime-dependence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 180-197.
  38. Dennis Nsafoah & Apostolos Serletis, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Interest Rate Spreads," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 707-727, July.
  39. Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2009. "From Bear Stearns to Anglo Irish: How Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Related to Financial Sector Vulnerability," IMF Working Papers 2009/108, International Monetary Fund.
  40. Nicolas Melissas, 2009. "On Bid Disclosure in OCS Wildcat Auctions," Working Papers 0905, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  41. Jari Hännikäinen, 2015. "Zero lower bound, unconventional monetary policy and indicator properties of interest rate spreads," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(1), pages 47-54, September.
  42. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:2015:y:2015:i:5:id:513:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. Jan Kakes & Cees Ullersma, 2010. "Financial Acceleration of Booms and Busts," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 43(3), pages 321-337.
  44. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  45. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
  46. Vít Pošta & Zdeněk Pikhart, 2015. "Financial Risk and Real Variables: Evidence Based on a SVAR Analysis of the Czech Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2015(5), pages 516-537.
  47. De Pace, Pierangelo & Weber, Kyle D., 2016. "The time-varying leading properties of the high yield spread in the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 203-230.
  48. Evan F. Koenig, 2011. "Monetary policy, financial stability, and the distribution of risk," Working Papers 1111, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  49. Evan F. Koenig, 2013. "Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 57-82, June.
  50. Ms. Sonja Keller & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2010. "International Pricing of Emerging Market Corporate Debt: Does the Corporate Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2010/026, International Monetary Fund.
  51. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
  52. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.
  53. Peter F. Basile & Sung Won Kang & John Landon-Lane & Hugh Rockoff, 2015. "Towards a History of the Junk Bond Market, 1910-1955," Departmental Working Papers 201514, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  54. Malhotra, Karan, 2010. "Autoregressive multifactor APT model for U.S. Equity Markets," MPRA Paper 23418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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