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The Real Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Brian Motley, 1983. "Real interest rates, money and government deficits," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sum, pages 31-45.
  2. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O'Rourke, 2024. "The Ends of 27 Big Depressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(1), pages 134-168, January.
  3. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach, 2008. "Real interest rate persistence: evidence and implications," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Nov), pages 609-642.
  4. Litterman, Robert B & Weiss, Laurence M, 1985. "Money, Real Interest Rates, and Output: A Reinterpretation of Postwar U.S. Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(1), pages 129-156, January.
  5. Cebula, Richard & Koch, James, 1988. "An Empirical Note on Deficits, Interest Rates, and International Capital Flows," MPRA Paper 50165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Giovannini, Alberto & Labadie, Pamela, 1991. "Asset Prices and Interest Rates in Cash-in-Advance Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1215-1251, December.
  7. Nakagawa, Hironobu, 2002. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: implications of nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 629-649, April.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
  9. Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Examining real interest parity: Which component reverts quickest and in which regime?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-83.
  10. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "Econometric Analysis of Fisher's Equation," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 125-168, January.
  11. Cozzi, Guido & Galli, Silvia, 2021. "Privatization of knowledge: Did the U.S. get it right?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 179-191.
  12. Basil Dalamagas & Stefanos Tantos, 2016. "Optimal Versus Actual Maturity of Government Debt: The Case of Greece," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(3), pages 25-52, July-Sept.
  13. Tai-Hu Ling, & Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Syed Azizi Wafa Syed Khalid Wafa, 2007. "Real Interest Rates Equalization: The Case of Malaysia and Singapore," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 24-37, August.
  14. Garcia, Rene & Perron, Pierre, 1996. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate under Regime Shifts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 111-125, February.
  15. Daniel, Volker & Steege, Lucas ter, 2020. "Inflation expectations and the recovery from the Great Depression in Germany," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  16. Lewis, Mervyn K., 2009. "The origins of the sub-prime crisis: Inappropriate policies, regulations, or both?," Accounting forum, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 114-126.
  17. Kikuo Iwata & Yasushi Okada & Seiji Adachi & Yasuyuki Iida, 2008. "Lessons from the Inoue Zaisei and the Takahashi Zaisei," Gakushuin Economic Papers, Gakushuin University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 157-182.
  18. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_022 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Manopimoke, Pym, 2019. "The Output Euler Equation And Real Interest Rate Regimes," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 420-447, January.
  21. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
  22. Pelaez, Rolando F., 1995. "The Fisher effect: Reprise," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 333-346.
  23. Kitamura, Yukinobu, 1997. "Indexed Bonds and Monetary Policy: The Real Interest Rate and the Expected Rate of Inflation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(1), pages 1-25, May.
  24. Behzad T. Diba & Seonghwan Oh, 1988. "Have Money-Stock Fluctuations Had a Liquidity Effect on Expected Real Interest Rates," UCLA Economics Working Papers 534, UCLA Department of Economics.
  25. Frederic S. Mishkin & John Simon, 1995. "An Empirical Examination of the Fisher Effect in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 71(3), pages 217-229, September.
  26. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1984. "Are Real Interest Rates Equal across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1345-1357, December.
  27. Chen, Zhaohui & Giovannini, Alberto, 1997. "The determinants of realignment expectations under the EMS: Some empirical regularities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 1687-1707, December.
  28. Jana Riedel, 2020. "On real interest rate convergence among G7 countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 599-626, August.
  29. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2019. "The Fisher puzzle, real rate anomaly, and Wicksell effect," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 128-148.
  30. Kang, In-bong, 2001. "The Yield Curve, Inflation Expectations, and Economic Uncertainty," KDI Policy Studies 2001-01, Korea Development Institute (KDI).
  31. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "Consumption Velocity in a Cash Costly-Credit Model," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/31, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  32. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
  33. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1989. "Prices during the Great Depression: Was the Deflation of 1930-32 really unanticipated?," NBER Working Papers 3174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Chang-Jin Kim & Jaeho Kim, 2013. "Bayesian Inference in Regime-Switching ARMA Models with Absorbing States: The Dynamics of the Ex-Ante Real Interest Rate Under Structural Breaks," Discussion Paper Series 1306, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  35. Karen K. Lewis & Martin D. Evans, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Binder, Carola Conces, 2016. "Estimation of historical inflation expectations," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-31.
  37. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Hasan Olgun, 2007. "Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: is the Fisher relation universal?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 53-68.
  38. Cumby, Robert E. & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1986. "The international linkage of real interest rates: The European-US connection," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 5-23, March.
  39. Suto, Isao & James, John A., 1999. "Savings and early economic growth in the United States and Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 161-183, April.
  40. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "Yield Curve," NBER Working Papers 3550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Carmen M. Reinhart & M. Belen Sbrancia1, 2015. "The liquidation of government debt," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 291-333.
  42. Bidarkota, Prasad V., 1998. "The comparative forecast performance of univariate and multivariate models: an application to real interest rate forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 457-468, December.
  43. Marco BIANCHI, "undated". "A simple and fast method of regime shifts detection based on kernel density estimation," Statistic und Oekonometrie 9316, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  44. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates : Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
  45. Burak Güriş & Yaşar Yaşgül, 2015. "Does the Fisher hypothesis hold for the G7 countries? Evidence from ADL threshold cointegration test," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2549-2557, November.
  46. Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "The Nonadjustment of Nominal Interest Rates: A Study of the Fisher Effect," NBER Working Papers 0836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
  48. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "Choosing the Federal Reserve Chair: Lessons from History," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 129-162, Winter.
  49. Cihan Yalcin & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates : Does It Tell About Future Inflation," Discussion Papers 0002, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  50. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Joshua Aizenman & Gurnain Kaur Pasricha, 2010. "Fiscal fragility: what the past may say about the future," NBER Working Papers 16478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Alisdair McKay, "undated". "Idiosyncratic risk, insurance, and aggregate consumption dynamics: a likelihood perspective," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2013-013, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  53. Victor Zarnowitz, 1989. "Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Causes and Effects of OBserved Changes (SEE ALSO WP3131-Send out together)," NBER Working Papers 3132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Douglas K. Pearce & V. Vance Roley, 1982. "The Reaction of Stock Prices to Unanticipated Changes in Money," NBER Working Papers 0958, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Ito, Hiro, 2003. "Was Japan’s Real Interest Rate Really Too High During the 1990s? The Role of the Zero Interest Rate Bound and Other Factors," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt48k5q6vd, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  56. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
  57. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.
  58. John H. Makin & Vito Tanzi, 1983. "The Level and Volatility of Interest Rates in the United States: The Roles of Expected Inflation, Real Rates, and Taxes," NBER Working Papers 1167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1989. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  60. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1994. "What Ends Recessions?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1994, Volume 9, pages 13-80, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Thomas Mayer, 1998. "Indexed Bonds And Heterogeneous Agents," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 77-84, January.
  62. Telatar, Erdinc & Telatar, Funda & Ratti, Ronald A., 2003. "On the predictive power of the term structure of interest rates for future inflation changes in the presence of political instability: the Turkish economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 931-946, December.
  63. Christina D. Romer & David Romer, 2002. "The evolution of economic understanding and postwar stabilization policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-78.
  64. Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2010. "World real interest rates: a global savings and investment perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2801-2816.
  65. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  66. Dean Croushore, 1997. "The Livingston Survey: still useful after all these years," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Mar, pages 15-27.
  67. Seppala, Juha, 2004. "The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1509-1549, October.
  68. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Tómasson, Helgi & Zoega, Gylfi, 2016. "Around the world with Irving Fisher," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 232-243.
  69. Dong-Hyeon Kim & Shu-Chin Lin & Joyce Hsieh & Yu-Bo Suen, 2018. "The Fisher Equation: A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 162-180, January.
  70. You, Zhongyuan & Goodwin, Barry K. & Guney, Selin, 2023. "A semi-parametric study on dynamic linkages among international real interest rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 215-229.
  71. Chapman, David A., 1997. "The cyclical properties of consumption growth and the real term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 145-172, July.
  72. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
  74. KIM, Jae-Young & PARK, Woong Yong, 2018. "Some Empirical Evidence on Models of the Fisher Relation: Post-Data Comparison," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-68, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
  75. Weber Ernst Juerg, 2010. "The Role of the Real Interest Rate in U.S. Macroeconomic History," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, April.
  76. Noureddine Benlagha, 2014. "Dependence structure between nominal and index-linked bond returns: a bivariate copula and DCC-GARCH approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(31), pages 3849-3860, November.
  77. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_025 is not listed on IDEAS
  78. Jorion, Philippe & Mishkin, Frederic, 1991. "A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 59-80, March.
  79. Nektarios Aslanidis & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "Has the Financial Crisis affected the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, April.
  80. Ito, Hiro, 2003. "Was Japan’s Real Interest Rate Really Too High During the 1990s? The Role of the Zero Interest Rate Bound and Other Factors," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt48k5q6vd, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  81. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
  82. Amaefula C. G, 2016. "The Effects of Inflation and its Risk on Interest Rate: An Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(2), pages 74-78.
  83. Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Monique Reid & Christian Tipoy & Mulatu Zerihun, 2014. "Real interest rate persistence in South Africa: evidence and implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 41-62, February.
  84. Crockett, Jean A., 1998. "Rational expectations, inflation and the nominal interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 349-363.
  85. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  86. Guler, Bulent & Ozlale, Umit, 2005. "Is there a flight to quality due to inflation uncertainty?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 603-607.
  87. Noor Ghazali & Shamshubariah Ramlee, 2003. "A long memory test of the long-run Fisher effect in the G7 countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(10), pages 763-769.
  88. Basil Dalamagas & Stefanos Tantos, 2017. "Optimal Sovereign Debt for an Overdebted Country," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 95-118, June.
  89. Valentina Pacella & Victor Nozais & Lia Talozzi & Majd Abdallah & Demian Wassermann & Stephanie J. Forkel & Michel Thiebaut de Schotten, 2024. "The morphospace of the brain-cognition organisation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
  90. Marco A. Espinosa-Vega & Steven Russell, 1998. "The long-run real effects of monetary policy: Keynesian predictions from a neoclassical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  91. Fletcher, Donna J. & Gulley, O. David, 1996. "Forecasting the real interest rate," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-76.
  92. Scheffel, Eric, 2008. "A Credit-Banking Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2008/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  93. Otto, Glenn D. & Voss, Graham M., 1998. "Is public capital provision efficient?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 47-66, June.
  94. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates: Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
  95. Douglas Dacy & Fuad Hasanov, 2005. "The Rate of Interest or the Rate of Return: Estimating Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution," Macroeconomics 0510012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  96. Bennett T. McCallum, 1988. "Real Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 2480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  97. Victor Zarnowitz, 1999. "Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 69-90, Spring.
  98. Paya, Ivan & Matthews, Kent & Peel, David, 2005. "The term spread and real economic activity in the US inter-war period," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 331-343, June.
  99. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Demiralp, Selva, 2013. "How did the Financial Crisis affect the Real Interest Rate Dynamics in Europe?," Working Papers 2072/211885, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
  100. C. D'Adda & A. E. Scorcu, 1997. "Real Intrest Rate and Growth: An Empirical Note," Working Papers 276, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  101. E. Yuksel & Y. Akdi, 2009. "The effect of different inflation risks on interest rates of the US," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 169-175.
  102. Nicolas Million, 2003. "The Fisher Effect revisited through an efficient non linear unit root testing procedure," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(15), pages 951-954.
  103. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios, 2000. "A note on nonstationarity, structural breaks, and the Fisher effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 695-707, May.
  104. Marques, André M. & Carvalho, André R., 2022. "Testing the neo-fisherian hypothesis in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 407-419.
  105. Richard Hartman & John H. Makin, 1982. "Inflation Uncertainty and Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 0906, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  106. Romer, Christina D., 1992. "What Ended the Great Depression?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 757-784, December.
  107. Paraskevopoulos, Christos C. & Paschakis, John & Smithin, John, 1996. "Is monetary sovereignty an option for the small open economy?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18.
  108. Pym Manopimoke, 2016. "The Output Euler Equation and Real Interest Rate Regimes," PIER Discussion Papers 33, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  109. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  110. Tsay, Wen-Jen, 2000. "Long memory story of the real interest rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 325-330, June.
  111. Martin Ellison & Sang Seok Lee & Kevin Hjortshøj O’Rourke, 2020. "The Ends of 30 Big Depressions," Economics Series Working Papers 896, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  112. Kandrac, John, 2012. "Monetary policy and bank lending to small firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 741-748.
  113. Fritsche Ulrich & Stephan Sabine, 2002. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles. An Assessment of Properties / Frühindikatoren der deutschen Konjunktur. Eine Beurteilung ihrer Eigenschaften," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(3), pages 289-315, June.
  114. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Missing Link Between Inflation Uncertainty And Interest Rates," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(2), pages 222-241, May.
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