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Indexed Bonds and Monetary Policy: The Real Interest Rate and the Expected Rate of Inflation

Author

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  • Kitamura, Yukinobu

    (Keio U and Bank of Japan)

Abstract

This paper presents a method for deriving the real interest rate and the expected rate of inflation from the market information contained in indexed government bonds. It also discusses the implications and potential use for monetary policy of the information derived about the real interest rate and the expected rate of inflation. In theory, the real interest rate represents the marginal product of capital or the discount rate used in intertemporal market exchanges. Therefore, it acts to signal conditions in the real economy. The expected rate of inflation represents the average expectation of market participants about future inflation. Therefore, it affects the economic decisions of market participants. It contains information about the judgment of market players, which is useful as a leading indicator of the future price level. This paper uses data on U.K. government-indexed bonds. It shows that the derived real interest rate and the expected rate of inflation provide very useful information for monetary policy. This paper also shows that the Fisher equation and the rational expectations hypothesis are incompatible, and that the expected rate of inflation obtained from the Fisher equation is far more stable than the realized rate of inflation and the expected rate of inflation obtained from the rational expectations hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitamura, Yukinobu, 1997. "Indexed Bonds and Monetary Policy: The Real Interest Rate and the Expected Rate of Inflation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(1), pages 1-25, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:15:y:1997:i:1:p:1-25
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    File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/me15-1-1.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
    2. Gibson, William E, 1970. "Price Expectations Effects on Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(1), pages 19-34, March.
    3. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1981. "The real interest rate: An empirical investigation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 151-200, January.
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-830, June.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:5:p:1095-1112 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mark Deacon & Andrew Derry, 1994. "Deriving Estimates of Inflation Expectations from the Prices of UK Government Bonds," Bank of England working papers 23, Bank of England.
    8. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    9. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(3), pages 280-280.
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    Cited by:

    1. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Curi, Alexandre, 2017. "Disagreement in expectations about public debt, monetary policy credibility and inflation risk premium," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 46-61.
    2. Masahiro Hori & Satoshi Shimizutani, 2005. "Price expectations and consumption under deflation: evidence from Japanese household survey data," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 127-151, November.
    3. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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