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The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States

In: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Marini, G. & Scaramozzino, P., 1989. "Monopolistic competition, expected inflation and contract length," Discussion Paper 1989-40, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  2. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Marek Raczko, 2018. "Measuring financial cycle time," BIS Working Papers 755, Bank for International Settlements.
  3. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "The longevity of expansions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 83(Q IV), pages 13-34.
  4. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
  5. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2002. "Did sunspot cause the Great Depression?," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,35, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  6. Yudong Yao & Yan Wang, 2007. "Measuring downside risk and severity for global output," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 23-32.
  7. Hogan, Thomas L., 2015. "Has the Fed improved U.S. economic performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 257-266.
  8. Peter Temin, 1998. "Causes of American business cycles: an essay in economic historiography," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 37-64.
  9. Ellis, Christopher J. & Holden, Steinar, 1997. "Optimal contract length in a reputational model of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 227-243, February.
  10. Watson, Mark W, 1994. "Business-Cycle Durations and Postwar Stabilization of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 24-46, March.
  11. Ritschl, Albrecht & Uebele, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2008. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-1995: A Dynamic Factor Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7069, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
  13. Weder, Mark, 2001. "The Great Demand Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 3067, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1997. "Soutenabilité des déficits et ajustements budgétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 371-395.
  15. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E., 2004. "Financial intermediation, variability and the development process," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 27-54, February.
  16. J. Bradford DeLong, 2002. "Do We Have a "New" Macroeconomy?," NBER Chapters, in: Innovation Policy and the Economy, Volume 2, pages 163-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Charles W. Calomiris & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1985. "Price Flexibility, Credit Rationing, and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S., 1879-1914," NBER Working Papers 1767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Rustam Jamilov & Tobias König & Karsten Müller & Farzad Saidi, 2024. "Two Centuries of Systemic Bank Runs," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_589, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  19. Hanes, Christopher & Rhode, Paul W., 2013. "Harvests and Financial Crises in Gold Standard America," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 201-246, March.
  20. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2009. "Volatility Dynamics of the UK Business Cycle: a Multivariate Asymmetric Garch Approach," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 117, pages 31-46.
  21. J. Bradford De Long, 1999. "Introduction to the Symposium on Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 19-22, Spring.
  22. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan, 2022. "Does oil impact gold during COVID-19 and three other recent crises?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  23. R. Glenn Hubbard & Kenneth L. Judd, 1987. "Finite Lifetimes, Borrowing Constraints, and Short-Run Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 2158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2016. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867–2006: a dynamic factor approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67420, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  25. Schultze, Charles L., 1995. "The Balanced Budget Amendment: Needed? Effective? Efficient?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 48(3), pages 317-28, September.
  26. Philippe Aghion & David Hemous & Enisse Kharroubi, 2009. "Credit Constraints, Cyclical Fiscal Policy and Industry Growth," NBER Working Papers 15119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Young Lee & Changyong Rhee & Taeyoon Sung, 2006. "Fiscal policy in Korea: Before and after the financial crisis," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(4), pages 509-531, August.
  29. Brownlees, Christian & Chabot, Ben & Ghysels, Eric & Kurz, Christopher, 2020. "Back to the future: Backtesting systemic risk measures during historical bank runs and the great depression," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  30. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1992. "Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 993-1005, September.
  31. J. Bradford De Long, 1996. "Keynesianism, Pennsylvania Avenue Style: Some Economic Consequences of the Employment Act of 1946," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 41-53, Summer.
  32. Harald Uhlig & Martin Lettau, 1999. "Rules of Thumb versus Dynamic Programming," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 148-174, March.
  33. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank.
  34. Canton, E.J.F., 1997. "Fiscal Policy in a Stochastic Model of Endogenous Growth," Discussion Paper 1997-63, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  35. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2006. "The Source of Historical Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Long-Run Restrictions," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004, pages 17-73, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. Christina D. Romer, 1987. "Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series," NBER Working Papers 2440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  37. Victor Zarnowitz, 1989. "Cost and Price Movements in Business Cycle Theories and Experience: Causes and Effects of OBserved Changes (SEE ALSO WP3131-Send out together)," NBER Working Papers 3132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Morris Altman, 1992. "Business Cycle Volatility in Developed Market Economies, 1870-1986: Revisions and Conjectures," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 259-275, Summer.
  39. Dagum, Estela Bee, 2010. "Business Cycles and Current Economic Analysis/Los ciclos económicos y el análisis económico actual," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 28, pages 577-594, Diciembre.
  40. Romer, Christina D, 1989. "The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869-1908," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 1-37, February.
  41. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
  42. Christina D. Romer, 1999. "Changes in Business Cycles: Evidence and Explanations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 23-44, Spring.
  43. J. Bradford De Long, "undated". "Keynesianism, Pennsylvania-Avenue Style: Some Economic Consequences of the 1946 Employment Act," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _105, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  44. Giuseppe Schlitzer, 1995. "Have economic fluctuations been dampened? New empirical evidence from Italy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 387-397, October.
  45. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "On the Existence and Interpretation of the "Unit Root" in U.S. GNP," NBER Working Papers 2716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Dennis Wesselbaum, 2020. "Procyclical Debt as Automatic Stabilizer," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 81-102, March.
  47. Ritschl, Albrecht & Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2008. "The U.S. business cycle, 1867-1995: Dynamic factor analysis vs. reconstructed national accounts," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-066, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  48. Harrison, Sharon G. & Weder, Mark, 2006. "Did sunspot forces cause the Great Depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1327-1339, October.
  49. U. Michael Bergman & Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1998. "Historical evidence on business cycles: the international experience," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 42(Jun), pages 65-119.
  50. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Margaret M. McConnell, 2000. "Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed since the Early 1980's?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1464-1476, December.
  51. Canton, Erik, 2001. "Fiscal policy in a stochastic model of endogenous growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 19-47, January.
  52. J. Bradford DeLong, 1998. "Fiscal Policy in the Shadow of the Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. Weber, Christian E., 2002. "Intertemporal non-separability and "rule of thumb" consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 293-308, March.
  54. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Lambe, Brendan J & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2021. "Perceptions of the threat to national security and the stock market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 504-522.
  55. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2021. "Do volatility indices diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven to investors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 214-235.
  56. Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Sarvary, M. & Parker, P.M., 2003. "Weathering Tight Economic Times: The Sales Evolution Of Consumer Durables Over The Business Cycle," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-046-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  57. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne & Stefano Cavaglia & Alison Tarditi, 1992. "Financial Liberalisation and Consumption Behaviour," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9209, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  58. Allen, Steven G, 1992. "Changes in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Wages in the United States, 1891-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 122-140, March.
  59. Canton, E.J.F., 1997. "Fiscal Policy in a Stochastic Model of Endogenous Growth," Other publications TiSEM 3c1fffeb-2496-4f9b-9bf3-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  60. M. Scattaglia, 1994. "Politiche per l'occupazione e Microfondamenti "Keynesiani" dell'economia del lavoro," Working Papers 196, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  61. John Simon, 2001. "The Decline in Australian Output Volatility," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2001-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  62. Cassim, Lucius, 2020. "A Residual-based Test For Multicointegration In Models With Structural Breaks And Threshold Adjustment To Steady State," MPRA Paper 101453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Joseph E. Gagnon & Garry J. Schinasi, 1989. "Savings rates and output variability in industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 363, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  64. Carranza, Luis & Galdón Sánchez, José E., 1997. "Multiple equilibrium, variability and the development process," UC3M Working papers. Economics 6059, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  65. Laurence Ball & David Romer, 1989. "Are Prices Too Sticky?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(3), pages 507-524.
  66. Canton, E.J.F., 1997. "Economic growth and business cycles," Other publications TiSEM 7b903e18-d700-44d6-a7c0-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  67. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Taux d'intérêt réels élevés et financement de l'économie," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(4), pages 671-684.
  68. Karras, Georgios & Lee, Jin Man & Stokes, Houston, 2006. "Why are postwar cycles smoother? Impulses or propagation?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 392-406.
  69. Charles W. Calomiris & R. Glenn Hubbard, 1987. "International Adjustment Under the Classical Gold Standard: Evidence for the U.S. and Britain, 1879-1914," NBER Working Papers 2206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. Kevin X.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Louis Phaneuf, 2004. "Why Does the Cyclical Behavior of Real Wages Change Over Time?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 836-856, September.
  71. Karras, Georgios & Song, Frank, 1996. "Sources of business-cycle volatility: An exploratory study on a sample of OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 621-637.
  72. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
  73. Yılmaz, Oğuzhan, 2024. "Financial development and declining growth volatility: Explanations and an empirical study with the latest FD index," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 457-470.
  74. Bernhard Felderer, 2001. "Warum unterscheiden sich die langfristigen Wachstums- und Produktivitätstrends Europas und der USA?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(01), pages 15-23, March.
  75. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "Tests for Liquidity Constraints: A Critical Survey," NBER Working Papers 1720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  76. Nathan S. Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1988. "The Estimation of Prewar GNP: Methodology and New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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