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Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series

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  • Christina D. Romer

Abstract

This paper uses simple time series techniques to analyze changes in the short-run behavior of 38 physical production series for 1889-1984. The main finding is that fluctuations in these output series in the periods 1889-1914 and 1947-1984 are very similar, while those in the period 1922- 1939 are anomalous. Relative to the prewar era, the postwar era exhibits only a slight damping of fluctuations and no increase in the persistence of short-run movements. At the same time, the correlation between the growth rates of the 38 goods is very low in both the prewar and postwar eras and has declined slightly over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Christina D. Romer, 1987. "Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Individual Production Series," NBER Working Papers 2440, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:2440
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    1. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 679-734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. John W. Kendrick, 1961. "Productivity Trends in the United States," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kend61-1.
    4. Arthur F. Burns, 1934. "Production Trends in the United States Since 1870," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn34-1.
    5. Martin Neil Baily, 1978. "Stabilization Policy and Private Economic Behavior," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(1), pages 11-60.
    6. Robert J. Barro, 1986. "The Behavior of United States Deficits," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 361-394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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