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Has the Fed improved U.S. economic performance?

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  • Hogan, Thomas L.

Abstract

This paper finds that U.S. economic performance has not generally improved under the Federal Reserve, with the possible exception of the Great Moderation. We analyze the Fed and pre-Fed periods in terms of the rates and volatilities of inflation and real GDP growth. Comparing the pre-Fed periods to the post-World War II period and the Great Moderation, we find that real GDP growth has been lower under the Fed, while inflation has been higher. The volatilities of inflation and GDP growth have both declined under the Fed, but the reductions occurred mostly during the Great Moderation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hogan, Thomas L., 2015. "Has the Fed improved U.S. economic performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 257-266.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:257-266
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.11.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Bredin, Don & Fountas, Stilianos, 2018. "US inflation and inflation uncertainty over 200 years," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 141-159, August.
    2. Cutsinger, Bryan P., 2020. "On the feasibility of returning to the gold standard," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 88-97.
    3. Peter J. Boettke & Alexander W. Salter & Daniel J. Smith, 2018. "Money as meta-rule: Buchanan’s constitutional economics as a foundation for monetary stability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 529-555, September.
    4. Hogan, Thomas L. & White, Lawrence H., 2021. "Hayek, Cassel, and the origins of the great depression," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 241-251.
    5. Salter, Alexander William & Young, Andrew T., 2018. "Would a free banking system stabilize NGDP growth?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 21-25.
    6. Salter, Alexander W. & Smith, Daniel J., 2019. "Political economists or political economists? The role of political environments in the formation of fed policy under burns, Greenspan, and Bernanke," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 1-13.
    7. Alexander William Salter & Andrew T. Young, 2015. "Would a Free Banking System Target NGDP Growth?," Working Papers 15-08, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    8. Thomas L. Hogan, Daniel J. Smith, Robin Aguiar-Hicks, 2018. "Central Banking without Romance," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 293-314, December.
    9. Rania Adel Al-Bawwab, 2022. "The zecca mint: a self-enforcing monetary constitution in historic venice," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-15, March.
    10. Cachanosky, Nicolás & Salter, Alexander W. & Savanti, Ignacio, 2022. "Can dollarization constrain a populist leader? The case of Rafael Correa in Ecuador," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 430-442.
    11. Glenn L. Furton & Alexander William Salter, 2017. "Money and the rule of law," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 517-532, December.
    12. Salter, Alexander William & Tarko, Vlad, 2017. "Polycentric banking and macroeconomic stability," Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 365-395, June.
    13. Wang, Zanxin & Wei, Wei & Luo, Junwen & Calderon, Margaret, 2019. "The effects of petroleum product price regulation on macroeconomic stability in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 96-105.
    14. Alexander W. Salter & William J. Luther, 2019. "Adaptation and central banking," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 243-256, September.
    15. Peter J. Boettke & Daniel J. Smith, 2016. "Evolving views on monetary policy in the thought of Hayek, Friedman, and Buchanan," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 29(4), pages 351-370, December.
    16. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Federal Reserve; Inflation; GDP; Volatility; Great Moderation; National banking;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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