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Back to the future: Backtesting systemic risk measures during historical bank runs and the great depression

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  • Brownlees, Christian
  • Chabot, Ben
  • Ghysels, Eric
  • Kurz, Christopher

Abstract

We evaluate the performance of two popular systemic risk measures, CoVaR and SRISK, during eight financial panics in the era before FDIC insurance. Bank stock price and balance sheet data were not readily available for this period. We rectify this shortcoming by constructing a novel dataset for the New York banking system before 1933. Our evaluation exercise focuses on two challenges: ranking systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) and financial crisis prediction. We find that CoVaR and SRISK meet the SIFI ranking challenge. That is, they help identify systemic institutions in periods of distress beyond what is explained by standard risk measures up to six months before panics. In contrast, aggregate CoVaR and SRISK are only somewhat effective at predicting financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Brownlees, Christian & Chabot, Ben & Ghysels, Eric & Kurz, Christopher, 2020. "Back to the future: Backtesting systemic risk measures during historical bank runs and the great depression," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:113:y:2020:i:c:s0378426620300030
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105736
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    3. Baumöhl, Eduard & Bouri, Elie & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Výrost, Tomáš, 2020. "Increasing systemic risk during the Covid-19 pandemic: A cross-quantilogram analysis of the banking sector," EconStor Preprints 222580, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Borri, Nicola & Giorgio, Giorgio di, 2022. "Systemic risk and the COVID challenge in the european banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Sanjiv R. Das & Kris James Mitchener & Angela Vossmeyer, 2018. "Bank Regulation, Network Topology, and Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Great Depression," CESifo Working Paper Series 7425, CESifo.
    6. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Olivier Scaillet, 2021. "Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5730-5754, September.
    7. Colletaz, Gilbert & Levieuge, Grégory & Popescu, Alexandra, 2018. "Monetary policy and long-run systemic risk-taking," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 165-184.
    8. Daniel Traian PELE & Alexandra Ioana CONDA & Raul Cristian BAG & Miruna MAZURENCU-MARINESCU-PELE & Vasile Alecsandru STRAT, 2023. "Financial Risk Meter for The Romanian Stock Market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 5-24, March.
    9. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    10. Ladley, Daniel & Rousseau, Peter L., 2023. "Panic and propagation in 1873: A network analytic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    11. Karamysheva, Madina & Seregina, Ekaterina, 2022. "Prudential policies and systemic risk: The role of interconnections," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    12. Mitchener, Kris & Das, Sanjiv & Vossmeyer, Angela, 2018. "Bank Regulation, Network Topology, and Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 13416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2024. "Measuring spatial impacts and tracking cross-border risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 50-84.
    14. Busch, Pascal & Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Marincas, Vlad & Meller, Barbara & Wildmann, Nadya, 2021. "How useful is market information for the identification of G-SIBs?," Occasional Paper Series 260, European Central Bank.
    15. Fina Kamani, Eric, 2019. "The effect of non-traditional banking activities on systemic risk: Does bank size matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 297-305.
    16. Kremer, Manfred & Chavleishvili, Sulkhan, 2021. "Measuring Systemic Financial Stress and its Impact on the Macroeconomy," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242346, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Engle, Robert F. & Fahr, Stephan & Kremer, Manfred & Manganelli, Simone & Schwaab, Bernd, 2021. "The risk management approach to macro-prudential policy," Working Paper Series 2565, European Central Bank.
    18. Sanjiv R. Das & Kris James Mitchener & Angela Vossmeyer, 2022. "Bank Regulation, Network Topology, and Systemic Risk: Evidence from the Great Depression," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1261-1312, August.
    19. Liu, Ruicheng & Pun, Chi Seng, 2022. "Machine-Learning-enhanced systemic risk measure: A Two-Step supervised learning approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systemic Risk; Financial Crises; Risk Measures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • N21 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

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