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Business Cycle Asymmetries in Stock Returns: Evidence from Higher Order Moments and Conditional Densities

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Cited by:

  1. Zeng, Songlin & Bec, Frédérique, 2015. "Do stock returns rebound after bear markets? An empirical analysis from five OECD countries," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-61.
  2. David Nawrocki & Tonis Vaga, 2014. "A bifurcation model of market returns," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 509-528, March.
  3. Esfandiar Maasoumi & Jeffrey Racine, 2009. "A Robust Entropy-Based Test of Asymmetry for Discrete and Continuous Processes," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1-3), pages 246-261.
  4. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2006. "Stock returns and inflation in Greece: A Markov switching approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 76-94.
  6. Lieven Baele & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2005. "Structural versus Temporary Drivers of Country and Industry Risk," International Finance 0511005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Anthony S. Tay & Aamir R. Hashmi, 2004. "Global and Regional Sources of Risk in Equity Markets: Evidence from Factor Models with Time-Varying Conditional Skewness," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 634, Econometric Society.
  8. L. Baele & R. Vander Vennet & A. Van Landschoot, 2004. "Bank Risk Strategies and Cyclical Variation in Bank Stock Returns," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/217, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  9. Barigozzi, Matteo & Massacci, Daniele, 2025. "Modelling large dimensional datasets with Markov switching factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
  10. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
  11. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2009. "Extracting bull and bear markets from stock returns," Working Papers tecipa-369, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  12. Xuan Vinh Vo & Thi Tuan Anh Tran, 2021. "Higher-order comoments and asset returns: evidence from emerging equity markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 323-340, February.
  13. Elliott, Graham & Timmermann, Allan, 2004. "Optimal forecast combinations under general loss functions and forecast error distributions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 47-79, September.
  14. Hess, Martin K., 2003. "What drives Markov regime-switching behavior of stock markets? The Swiss case," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 527-543.
  15. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan, 2008. "Multivariate regimeswitching GARCH with an application to international stock markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  16. Nguyen, Hoang & Javed, Farrukh, 2023. "Dynamic relationship between Stock and Bond returns: A GAS MIDAS copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 272-292.
  17. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Testing for sign and amplitude asymmetries using threshold autoregressions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 623-654, April.
  18. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2010. "Do higher oil prices push the stock market into bear territory?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 490-495, March.
  19. Esparcia, Carlos & Díaz, Antonio, 2024. "The football world upside down: Traditional equities as an alternative for the new fan tokens? A portfolio optimization study," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  20. Sean D. Campbell, 2002. "Specification Testing and Semiparametric Estimation of Regime Switching Models: An Examination of the US Short Term Interest Rate," Working Papers 2002-26, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  21. Shiu‐Sheng Chen, 2007. "Does Monetary Policy Have Asymmetric Effects on Stock Returns?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2‐3), pages 667-688, March.
  22. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
  23. Ayelen Banegas, 2016. "Predictability of Growth in Emerging Markets: Information in Financial Aggregates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1174, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  24. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2013. "Assessing the number of components in a normal mixture: an alternative approach," MPRA Paper 50303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  25. Javed Farrukh & Podgórski Krzysztof, 2017. "Tail Behavior and Dependence Structure in the APARCH Model," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-48, July.
  26. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.
  27. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-050/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  28. Zeng, Jhih-Hong & Peng, Chi-Lu & Chen, Ming-Chi & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2013. "Wealth effects on the housing markets: Do market liquidity and market states matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 488-495.
  29. Opschoor, Anne & van Dijk, Dick & van der Wel, Michel, 2014. "Predicting volatility and correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 435-447.
  30. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
  31. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376, March.
  32. Lieven Baele & Geert Bekaert & Koen Inghelbrecht & Min Wei, 2020. "Flights to Safety," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(2), pages 689-746.
  33. Isah Wada, 2019. "Dynamic Effects of Crude Oil Price Movements: a Sectoral Examination," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 22(71), pages 17-28, March.
  34. Camacho, Maximo & Perez Quiros, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar, 2014. "Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 520-535.
  35. Baele, Lieven & Inghelbrecht, Koen, 2009. "Time-varying Integration and International diversification strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 368-387, June.
  36. Lhuissier, Stéphane, 2022. "Financial conditions and macroeconomic downside risks in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  37. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green shoots in the euro area. A real time measure," Working Papers 1026, Banco de España.
  38. Hashmi, Aamir R. & Tay, Anthony S., 2007. "Global regional sources of risk in equity markets: Evidence from factor models with time-varying conditional skewness," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 430-453, April.
  39. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy & Yong Song, 2012. "Components of Bull and Bear Markets: Bull Corrections and Bear Rallies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 391-403, February.
  40. Chien-Chiang Lee & Chin-Yu Wang & Jhih-Hong Zeng, 2017. "Housing price–volume correlations and boom–bust cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1423-1450, June.
  41. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Business Cycle Asymmetries In Stock Returns: Robust Evidence," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2), pages 99-120.
  42. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012. "Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? A long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 695-716.
  43. Anne Opschoor & Dick van Dijk & Michel van der Wel, 2013. "Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-113/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  44. Martin Hess, 2006. "Timing and diversification: A state-dependent asset allocation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 189-204.
  45. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
  46. Mai Shibata, 2014. "The Influence of Japan’s Unsecured Overnight Call Rate on Bull and Bear Markets and Market Turns," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 21(4), pages 331-349, November.
  47. Massacci, Daniele, 2014. "A two-regime threshold model with conditional skewed Student t distributions for stock returns," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 9-20.
  48. Wee, Damien C.H. & Chen, Feng & Dunsmuir, William T.M., 2022. "Likelihood inference for Markov switching GARCH(1,1) models using sequential Monte Carlo," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 50-68.
  49. Wai‐Sum Chan & Li‐Xin Zhang & Siu Hung Cheung, 2009. "Temporal aggregation of Markov‐switching financial return models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(3), pages 359-383, May.
  50. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2011. "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 215-230, August.
  51. Chan, Raymond H. & Chow, Sheung-Chi & Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2022. "Central moments, stochastic dominance, moment rule, and diversification with an application," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  52. John M. Maheu & Thomas McCurdy, 2003. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-38, CIRANO.
  53. Duong, Diep & Swanson, Norman R., 2015. "Empirical evidence on the importance of aggregation, asymmetry, and jumps for volatility prediction," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 606-621.
  54. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012. "Simple VARs cannot approximate Markov switching asset allocation decisions: An out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3546-3566.
  55. Monica Billio & Silvio Di Sanzo, 2015. "Granger-causality in Markov switching models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 956-966, May.
  56. repec:ptu:bdpart:b200512 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
  58. Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2010. "Estimation Methods Comparison of SVAR Models with a Mixture of Two Normal Distributions," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 279-314, September.
  59. repec:hal:journl:peer-00834423 is not listed on IDEAS
  60. Bijsterbosch, Martin & Guérin, Pierre, 2013. "Characterizing very high uncertainty episodes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 239-243.
  61. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
  62. González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
  63. Kim, Tae-Hwan & White, Halbert, 2004. "On more robust estimation of skewness and kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 56-73, March.
  64. Geweke, John, 2007. "Interpretation and inference in mixture models: Simple MCMC works," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3529-3550, April.
  65. Massacci, Daniele, 2013. "A switching model with flexible threshold variable: With an application to nonlinear dynamics in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(2), pages 199-203.
  66. Ane, Thierry & Ureche-Rangau, Loredana, 2006. "Stock market dynamics in a regime-switching asymmetric power GARCH model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 109-129.
  67. David Ardia, 2009. "Bayesian estimation of a Markov-switching threshold asymmetric GARCH model with Student-t innovations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 12(1), pages 105-126, March.
  68. Ayben Koy, 2017. "Modelling Nonlinear Dynamics of Oil Futures Market," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 2(1), pages 23-42, June.
  69. Bali, Turan G. & Demirtas, K. Ozgur & Levy, Haim, 2008. "Nonlinear mean reversion in stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 767-782, May.
  70. José Ferreira Machado, 2006. "Identifying asset price booms and busts with quantile regressions," Working Papers w200608, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  71. Jun Tu, 2010. "Is Regime Switching in Stock Returns Important in Portfolio Decisions?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(7), pages 1198-1215, July.
  72. Victoria Atanasov, 2016. "Conditional interest rate risk and the cross‐section of excess stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 23-32, September.
  73. Jian Yang & Yinggang Zhou & Zijun Wang, 2010. "Conditional Coskewness in Stock and Bond Markets: Time-Series Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 2031-2049, November.
  74. Qing Xu & Terry Childs, 2013. "Evaluating forecast performances of the quantile autoregression models in the present global crisis in international equity markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(2), pages 105-117, January.
  75. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  76. Richard D. F. Harris & Murat Mazibas, 2022. "A component Markov regime‐switching autoregressive conditional range model," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 650-683, April.
  77. Chiu-Lan Chang & Paul L. Hsueh, 2013. "An Investigation of the Flight-to-Quality Effect: Evidence from Asia-Pacific Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S4), pages 53-69, September.
  78. Marco Bazzi & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2017. "Time-Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 458-478, May.
  79. Shum, Wai Yan, 2020. "Modelling conditional skewness: Heterogeneous beliefs, short sale restrictions and market declines," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  80. Atanasov, Victoria, 2016. "Conditional interest rate risk and the cross-section of excess stock returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 23-32.
  81. Christopher S. Withers & Saralees Nadarajah & Shou Hsing Shih, 2015. "Moments and Cumulants of a Mixture," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 541-564, September.
  82. Tom Boot & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Optimal forecasts from Markov switching models," DNB Working Papers 452, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  83. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2010. "House price dynamics, conditional higher-order moments, and density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1029-1039, September.
  84. Peñaranda, Francisco, 2003. "Evaluation of joint density forecasts of stock and bond returns: predictability and parameter uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  85. Klaus Grobys, 2012. "Active PortofolioManagement in the Presence of Regime Switching: What Are the Benefits of Defensive Asset Allocation Strategies If the Investor Faces Bear Markets?," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 4(1), pages 015-031, June.
  86. Shiu-Sheng Chen, 2012. "Consumer confidence and stock returns over market fluctuations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(10), pages 1585-1597, October.
  87. Juan Reboredo, 2010. "Nonlinear effects of oil shocks on stock returns: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3735-3744.
  88. Vanden, Joel M., 2005. "Equilibrium analysis of volatility clustering," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 374-417, June.
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