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The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: statistical tests and economic value

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Cited by:

  1. Corrado Macchiarelli, 2013. "On the Joint Test of the Uncovered Interest Parity and the Ex-ante Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 519-535, August.
  2. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Tsiakas, Ilias, 2011. "Spot and forward volatility in foreign exchange," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 496-513, June.
  3. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
  4. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 72-88, January.
  5. Karstanje, Dennis & Sojli, Elvira & Tham, Wing Wah & van der Wel, Michel, 2013. "Economic valuation of liquidity timing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5073-5087.
  6. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Chardin Wese Simen, 2019. "The term structure of systematic and idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 435-460, April.
  7. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "The economic value of predicting bond risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 247-267.
  8. Benedikt Ballensiefen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2023. "Safe Asset Carry Trade," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 223-265.
  9. João F. Caldeira & Guilherme V. Moura & Francisco J. Nogales & André A. P. Santos, 2017. "Combining Multivariate Volatility Forecasts: An Economic-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 247-285.
  10. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  11. Thornton, Daniel L., 2014. "Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 202-213.
  12. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 65-81.
  13. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
  14. Huiqing Li & Yang Su, 2021. "The nonlinear causal relationship between short‐ and long‐term interest rates: An empirical assessment of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 332-355, December.
  15. Dubiel-Teleszynski, Tomasz & Kalogeropoulos, Konstantinos & Karouzakis, Nikolaos, 2024. "Sequential learning and economic benefits from dynamic term structure models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123659, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  16. Hernandis, Lucía & Torró, Hipòlit, 2013. "The information content of Eonia swap rates before and during the financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5316-5328.
  17. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
  18. Rui Liu, 2019. "Forecasting Bond Risk Premia with Unspanned Macroeconomic Information," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-62, March.
  19. repec:mul:jdp901:doi:10.12831/73630:y:2013:i:1:p:11-25 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2010. "A century of equity premium predictability and the consumption-wealth ratio: An international perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 313-331, June.
  21. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Giulia Sestieri, 2012. "The Predictive Information Content of External Imbalances for Exchange Rate Returns: How Much Is It Worth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 100-115, February.
  22. Ilias Tsiakas, 2010. "The Economic Gains Of Trading Stocks Around Holidays," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-26, March.
  23. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas & Steffensen, Sigurd A.M., 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 841-858.
  24. Ranaldo, Angelo & Schaffner, Patrick & Vasios, Michalis, 2021. "Regulatory effects on short-term interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 750-770.
  25. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
  26. Jiyoung Lee, 2015. "Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 419-450, September.
  27. Kavita Sirichand & Stephen G. Hall, 2016. "Decision‐Based Forecast Evaluation of UK Interest Rate Predictability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 93-112, March.
  28. Andrea Buraschi & Andrea Carnelli, 2013. "The economic value of predictability in portfolio management," Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 5-22, January.
  29. Wu, Chih-Chiang & Wu, Chang-Che, 2017. "The asymmetry in carry trade and the U.S. dollar," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 304-313.
  30. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  31. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Asymmetries in Yield Curves: Some Empirical Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 79155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Kotomin, Vladimir, 2011. "A test of the expectations hypothesis in very short-term international rates in the presence of preferred habitat for liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 49-55, February.
  33. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  34. Cao, Zhen & Han, Liyan & Zhang, Qunzi, 2022. "Stock return predictability in China: Power of oil price trend," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  35. Santos, André Alves Portela & Ferreira, Alexandre R., 2017. "On the choice of covariance specifications for portfolio selection problems," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(1), May.
  36. King, Michael & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2010. "Timing exchange rates using order flow: The case of the Loonie," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2917-2928, December.
  37. McAndrews, James & Sarkar, Asani & Wang, Zhenyu, 2017. "The effect of the term auction facility on the London interbank offered rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-152.
  38. Ranaldo, Angelo & Rupprecht, Matthias, 2016. "The Forward Premium in Short-Term Rates," Working Papers on Finance 1619, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Sep 2019.
  39. Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios & Eckhard Platen, 2012. "Alternative Term Structure Models for Reviewing Expectations Puzzles," Research Paper Series 305, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  40. Judit Temesváry, 2014. "Explaining the Differences between Local Currency versus FX-denominated Loans and Deposits in the Central-Eastern European Economies," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1405, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
  41. Chang‐Che Wu & MeiChi Huang & Chih‐Chiang Wu, 2021. "The role of asymmetry and dynamics in carry trade and general financial markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 331-353, May.
  42. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  43. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  44. Stephen Hall & Kavita Sirichand, 2010. "Economic Value of Stock and Interest Rate Predictability in the UK," Discussion Papers in Economics 10/13, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  45. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  46. Fabrizio Iacone, 2009. "A Semiparametric Analysis of the Term Structure of the US Interest Rates," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 475-490, August.
  47. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Riccardo Costantini, 2014. "Bond Returns and Market Expectations," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 708-729.
  48. Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A. P., 2019. "Comparing Forecasts of Extremely Large Conditional Covariance Matrices," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 29291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  49. Andrea Berardi & Michael Markovich & Alberto Plazzi & Andrea Tamoni, 2021. "Mind the (Convergence) Gap: Bond Predictability Strikes Back!," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(12), pages 7888-7911, December.
  50. Michael W. McCracken & Giorgio Valente, 2018. "Asymptotic Inference for Performance Fees and the Predictability of Asset Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 426-437, July.
  51. Konstantinos Bisiotis & Stelios Psarakis & Athanasios N. Yannacopoulos, 2022. "Affine Term Structure Models: Applications in Portfolio Optimization and Change Point Detection," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(21), pages 1-33, November.
  52. Nicholas Addai Boamah, 2016. "Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rate: the case of Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, January.
  53. Tan, Xueping & Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wang, Xinyu, 2022. "Forecasting European carbon returns using dimension reduction techniques: Commodity versus financial fundamentals," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 944-969.
  54. Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Yu‐Hsi Chou, 2010. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from Long‐Horizon Regression Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(1), pages 63-88, February.
  55. Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P. & Ruiz, Esther, 2020. "Comparing high-dimensional conditional covariance matrices: Implications for portfolio selection," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
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