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Large shocks, small shocks, and economic fluctuations: outliers in macroeconomic times series

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Cited by:

  1. Chan, W.S & Liu, W.N, 2002. "Diagnosing shocks in stock markets of southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 223-232.
  2. E. Ruiz & M.A. Carnero & D. Pereira, 2004. "Effects of Level Outliers on the Identification and Estimation of GARCH Models," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 21, Econometric Society.
  3. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Volatility persistence in crude oil markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 729-742.
  4. Cribari-Neto, Francisco, 1996. "On time series econometrics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 37-60.
  5. Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
  6. F. Javier Trivez & Beatriz Catalan, 2009. "Detecting level shifts in ARMA-GARCH (1,1) Models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 679-697.
  7. Jinliang Li & Chihwa Kao & Wei David Zhang, 2010. "Bounded influence estimator for GARCH models: evidence from foreign exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(11), pages 1437-1445.
  8. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
  9. Preminger, Arie & Franck, Raphael, 2007. "Forecasting exchange rates: A robust regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-84.
  10. Pavel Čížek, 2013. "Reweighted least trimmed squares: an alternative to one-step estimators," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(3), pages 514-533, September.
  11. Rickard Sandberg, 2015. "M-estimator based unit root tests in the ESTAR framework," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1115-1135, November.
  12. W.C Lo & W.S. Chan, 2000. "Diagnosing Shocks in Stock Market Returns of Greater China," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 4(3-4), pages 269-288, September.
  13. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
  14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
  15. Skalin, Joakim & Terasvirta, Timo, 1999. "Another Look at Swedish Business Cycles, 1861-1988," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 359-378, July-Aug..
  16. Kiani, Khurshid M., 2016. "On business cycle fluctuations in USA macroeconomic time series," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 179-186.
  17. Cízek, Pavel, 2011. "Semiparametrically weighted robust estimation of regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 774-788, January.
  18. Pedersen, Torben Mark & Elmer, Anne Marie, 2003. "International evidence on the connection between business cycles and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 255-275, June.
  19. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2019. "How resilient is La Réunion in terms of international tourism attractiveness: an assessment from unit root tests with structural breaks from 1981-2015," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(24), pages 2639-2653, May.
  20. Fiammetta Menchetti & Fabrizio Cipollini & Fabrizia Mealli, 2021. "Causal effect of regulated Bitcoin futures on volatility and volume," Papers 2109.15052, arXiv.org.
  21. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.
  22. Halkos, George & Managi, Shunsuke & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2017. "Analyzing the determinants of terrorist attacks and their market reactions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 57-73.
  23. Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
  24. Tokat, Yesim & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Schwartz, Eduardo, 2000. "The Stable non-Gaussian Asset Allocation: A Comparison with the Classical Gaussian Approach," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9ph6b5gp, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  25. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2006-050 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2004. "Spurious And Hidden Volatility," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-45, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  27. Čίžek, Pavel & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2006. "Robust econometrics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2006-050, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  28. A. Espasa & E. Senra & R. Albacete, 2002. "Forecasting inflation in the European Monetary Union: A disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 402-421.
  29. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
  30. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
  31. George Kapetanios, 2004. "The Impact of Large Structural Shocks on Economic Relationships: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 524, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  32. Martínez, José Manuel, 1998. "Modelling nonlinearities in GDP. Some diferences between us and spanish data," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6259, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  33. Khurshid M. Kiani & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2004. "On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 333-351, July.
  34. Fan, Jianqing & Ke, Yuan & Liao, Yuan, 2021. "Augmented factor models with applications to validating market risk factors and forecasting bond risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 269-294.
  35. Grossi, Luigi & Laurini, Fabrizio, 2009. "A robust forward weighted Lagrange multiplier test for conditional heteroscedasticity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 2251-2263, April.
  36. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Pop, Adrian, 2015. "Risk and ethical investment: Empirical evidence from Dow Jones Islamic indexes," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 33-56.
  37. Mohamed Ali Houfi & Ghassen El Montasser, 2010. "Effets des points aberrants sur les tests de normalité et de linéarité. Applications à la bourse de Tokyo," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(36), pages 15-51, June.
  38. Reese, Simon & Li, Yushu, 2013. "Testing for Structural Breaks in the Presence of Data Perturbations: Impacts and Wavelet Based Improvements," Working Papers 2013:36, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  39. Bidarkota, Prasad V. & Dupoyet, Brice V., 2007. "The impact of fat tails on equilibrium rates of return and term premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 887-905, March.
  40. Jean-Daniel Boyer & Magali Jaoul-Grammare & Sylvie Rivot, 2017. "Prix du blé, régulations et croissance économique : L’analyse cliométrique permet-elle de trancher le débat sur les bleds des années 1750?," Working Papers of BETA 2017-29, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  41. Man Li & Tao Ye & Peijun Shi & Jian Fang, 2015. "Impacts of the global economic crisis and Tohoku earthquake on Sino–Japan trade: a comparative perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 541-556, January.
  42. Olivier Darné & Jean-François Hoarau, 2006. "Testing the purchasing power parity in China," Working Papers hal-04138871, HAL.
  43. Marián Vávra, 2020. "Assessing distributional properties of forecast errors for fan-chart modelling," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2841-2858, December.
  44. Kyrtsou, Catherine & Malliaris, Anastasios G., 2009. "The impact of information signals on market prices when agents have non-linear trading rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 167-176, January.
  45. Danjun Wang & Zhanyang Zhang & Fengwei Wang & Xiaomeng Qiu, 2024. "Quantification of the short-term impact of economic shock events on the gross domestic product of 31 provinces in China from 2005 to 2022," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(8), pages 1-22, August.
  46. Candelon, Bertrand & Metiu, Norbert & Straetmans, Stefan, 2013. "Disentangling economic recessions and depressions," Discussion Papers 43/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  47. Charles, Amelie & Darne, Olivier, 2006. "Large shocks and the September 11th terrorist attacks on international stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 683-698, July.
  48. Olivier Darné & Claude Diebolt, 2006. "Chocs temporaires et permanents dans le PIB de la France, du Royaume-Uni et des États-Unis," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 116(1), pages 65-78.
  49. Rossen Anja, 2016. "On the Predictive Content of Nonlinear Transformations of Lagged Autoregression Residuals and Time Series Observations," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(3), pages 389-409, May.
  50. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2021. "Econometric history of the growth–volatility relationship in the USA: 1919–2017," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 15(2), pages 419-442, May.
  51. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2018. "Does The Great Recession Imply The End Of The Great Moderation? International Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(2), pages 745-760, April.
  52. Fu, Qi & So, Jacky Yuk-Chow & Li, Xiaotong, 2024. "Stable paretian distribution, return generating processes and habit formation—The implication for equity premium puzzle," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  53. Lima Luiz Renato & Xiao Zhijie, 2010. "Testing Unit Root Based on Partially Adaptive Estimation," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-34, June.
  54. Carnero, María Ángeles, 2001. "Outliers and conditional autoregressive heteroscedasticity in time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws010704, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  55. Halkos, George & Zisiadou, Argyro, 2016. "Exploring the effect of terrorist attacks on markets," MPRA Paper 71877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. David Peel & Alan Speight, 1995. "Asymmetry in the variance of economic activity: evidence for long-run UK GDP," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(11), pages 415-418.
  57. Thai-Ha Le & Donghyun Park & Cong-Phu-Khanh Tran & Binh Tran-Nam, 2018. "The Impact of the Hai Yang Shi You 981 Event on Vietnam’s Stock Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(3_suppl), pages 344-375, December.
  58. Fiammetta Menchetti & Fabrizio Cipollini & Fabrizia Mealli, 2021. "Estimating the causal effect of an intervention in a time series setting: the C-ARIMA approach," Papers 2103.06740, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
  59. Tseng Shoiw-Mei, 2015. "Poland’s Trade with East Asia: An Outlier Approach," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 15(2), pages 81-100, December.
  60. Mills, Terence C., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetries and non-linearities in U.K. macroeconomic time series," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 97-124, June.
  61. Lorenzo, Fernando, 1997. "Estimación de la volatilidad de la inflación en presencia de observaciones atípicas y heteroscedasticidad condicional," DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS 3648, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  62. Olivier Darné & Jean‐François Hoarau, 2007. "Further Evidence On Mean Reversion In The Australian Exchange Rate," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 383-395, October.
  63. Van Dijk, Dick & Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1999. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in the Presence of Outliers," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 217-235, April.
  64. Joseph D. Petruccelli & Alina Onofrei & Jayson D. Wilbur, 2009. "A robust Cusum test for SETAR-type nonlinearity in time series," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 266-276.
  65. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2009. "Asymmetries in Macroeconomic Time Series in Eleven Asian Economies," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 8(1), pages 37-54, April.
  66. Blazsek, Szabolcs & Licht, Adrian, 2019. "Markov-switching score-driven multivariate models: outlier-robust measurement of the relationships between world crude oil production and US industrial production," UC3M Working papers. Economics 29030, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  67. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1998. "Censored latent effects autoregression, with an application to US unemployment," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9841, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  68. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Manera, Matteo, 2015. "The role of outliers and oil price shocks on volatility of metal prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 139-150.
  69. Guanghui Cai & Zhimin Wu & Lei Peng, 2021. "Forecasting volatility with outliers in Realized GARCH models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 667-685, July.
  70. Panayotis G. Michaelides & Efthymios G. Tsionas & Angelos T. Vouldis & Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panagiotis Patrinos, 2018. "A Semi-Parametric Non-linear Neural Network Filter: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 637-675, March.
  71. Lee, Jim, 1996. "Testing for a unit root in time series with trend breaks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 503-519.
  72. Byungsoo Kim & Junmo Song & Changryong Baek, 2021. "Robust test for structural instability in dynamic factor models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 73(4), pages 821-853, August.
  73. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  74. Christos Avdoulas & Stelios Bekiros & Sabri Boubaker, 2018. "Evolutionary-based return forecasting with nonlinear STAR models: evidence from the Eurozone peripheral stock markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 307-333, March.
  75. Bouaddi, Mohammed & Larocque, Denis & Normandin, Michel, 2015. "Equity premia and state-dependent risks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 393-409.
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  77. Khurshid Kiani, 2005. "Detecting Business Cycle Asymmetries Using Artificial Neural Networks and Time Series Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 65-89, August.
  78. Tokat, Yesim & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2003. "The stable non-Gaussian asset allocation: a comparison with the classical Gaussian approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 937-969, April.
  79. Zacharias Psaradakis & Marián Vávra, 2015. "A Quantile-based Test for Symmetry of Weakly Dependent Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 587-598, July.
  80. Hafsa Hina & Abdul Qayyum, 2015. "Re-estimation of Keynesian Model by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 123-145.
  81. Luiz Lima & Jaime de Jesus Filho, 2008. "Further investigation of the uncertain trend in US GDP," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(9), pages 1207-1216.
  82. Yoshihiro Ohtsuka, 2018. "Large Shocks and the Business Cycle: The Effect of Outlier Adjustments," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 143-178, April.
  83. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2013. "Estimation of Keynesian Exchange Rate Model of Pakistan by Considering Critical Events and Multiple Cointegrating Vectors," MPRA Paper 52611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  84. Arie Preminger & Shinichi Sakata, 2007. "A model selection method for S-estimation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 294-319, July.
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  89. George Kapetanios & Elias Tzavalis, 2005. "Nonlinear Modelling of Autoregressive Structural Breaks in a US Diffusion Index Dataset," Working Papers 537, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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