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Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: methodological considerations regarding ramp up and sampling

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  1. Penyalver, Domingo & Turró, Mateu & Williamson, John B., 2019. "Measuring the value for money of transport infrastructure procurement; an intergenerational approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 238-254.
  2. West , Jens & Börjesson , Maria & Engelson , Leonid, 2016. "Forecasting effects of congestion charges," Working papers in Transport Economics 2016:9, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  3. Hoque, Jawad Mahmud & Erhardt, Gregory D. & Schmitt, David & Chen, Mei & Wachs, Martin, 2021. "Estimating the uncertainty of traffic forecasts from their historical accuracy," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 339-349.
  4. Lise Arena & Eamonn Molloy, 2010. "The Governance Paradox in Megaprojects," Post-Print halshs-00721622, HAL.
  5. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Bester, Dirk W., 2021. "The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 395-419, October.
  6. Parthasarathi, Pavithra & Levinson, David, 2010. "Post-construction evaluation of traffic forecast accuracy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 428-443, November.
  7. Flyvbjerg, Bent, 2018. "Planning Fallacy or Hiding Hand: Which is the Better Explanation?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 383-386.
  8. Hugosson, Muriel Beser, 2005. "Quantifying uncertainties in a national forecasting model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 531-547, July.
  9. Einat Tenenboim & Nira Munichor & Yoram Shiftan, 2023. "Justifying toll payment with biased travel time estimates: Behavioral findings and route choice modeling," Transportation, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 477-511, April.
  10. Sevcíková, Hana & Raftery, Adrian E. & Waddell, Paul A., 2011. "Uncertain benefits: Application of Bayesian melding to the Alaskan Way Viaduct in Seattle," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(6), pages 540-553, July.
  11. Nicolaisen, Morten Skou & Næss, Petter, 2015. "Roads to nowhere: The accuracy of travel demand forecasts for do-nothing alternatives," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 57-63.
  12. Olsson, Nils O.E. & Krane, Hans Petter & Rolstadås, Asbjørn & Veiseth, Mads, 2010. "Influence of reference points in ex post evaluations of rail infrastructure projects," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 251-258, August.
  13. Love, Peter E.D. & Ika, Lavagnon A. & Ahiaga-Dagbui, Dominic D., 2019. "On de-bunking ‘fake news’ in a post truth era: Why does the Planning Fallacy explanation for cost overruns fall short?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 397-408.
  14. Sciara, Gian-Claudia, 2012. "Financing congressional earmarks: Implications for transport policy and planning," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(8), pages 1328-1342.
  15. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Quality Control and Due Diligence in Project Management: Getting Decisions Right by Taking the Outside View," Papers 1302.2544, arXiv.org.
  16. Huimin Liu & Canhui Jiang & Yan Liu & Marcel Hertogh & Xue Lyu, 2018. "Optimism Bias Evaluation and Decision-Making Risk Forecast on Bridge Project Cost Based on Reference Class Forecasting: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-29, October.
  17. Manzo, Stefano & Nielsen, Otto Anker & Prato, Carlo Giacomo, 2015. "How uncertainty in input and parameters influences transport model :output A four-stage model case-study," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 64-72.
  18. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bent Flybjerg & Eric J. E. Molin & Bert van Wee, 2013. "Cost overruns in Large-Scale Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Explanations and Their Theoretical Embeddedness," Papers 1307.2176, arXiv.org.
  19. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2006. "Cost Overruns and Demand Shortfalls in Urban Rail and Other Infrastructure," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 9-30, February.
  20. Carole Turley Voulgaris, 2020. "Trust in forecasts? Correlates with ridership forecast accuracy for fixed-guideway transit projects," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2439-2477, October.
  21. Bent Flyvbjerg & Cass R. Sunstein, 2015. "The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large," Papers 1509.01526, arXiv.org.
  22. Odeck, James, 2013. "How accurate are national road traffic growth-rate forecasts?—The case of Norway," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 102-111.
  23. Bent Flyvbjerg & Eamonn Molloy, 2011. "Delusion, Deception and Corruption in Major Infrastructure Projects: Causes, Consequences and Cures," Chapters, in: Susan Rose-Ackerman & Tina Søreide (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Corruption, Volume Two, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  24. Mouter, Niek & Annema, Jan Anne & van Wee, Bert, 2013. "Ranking the substantive problems in the Dutch Cost–Benefit Analysis practice," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 241-255.
  25. Stefano Moroni, 2014. "Grandi e piccole opere Per un?azione pubblica responsabile," SCIENZE REGIONALI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(3), pages 103-112.
  26. Brett Crowe, 2014. "Toll road Traffic Forecasts, Their Failures and How to Fix Them," Development Discussion Papers 2014-09, JDI Executive Programs.
  27. Penyalver, Domingo & Turró, Mateu & Zavala-Rojas, Diana, 2018. "Intergenerational perception of the utility of major transport projects," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 97-111.
  28. Salling, Kim Bang & Banister, David, 2009. "Assessment of large transport infrastructure projects: The CBA-DK model," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(9-10), pages 800-813, November.
  29. Cavallaro, Federico & Costa, Carlo & De Biasi, Ilaria & Fabio, Alberto & Nocera, Silvio, 2024. "Sustainable pathways for mitigating externalities in long-distance terrestrial transport," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 207-221.
  30. Susilo, Yusak O. & Kitamura, Ryuichi, 2008. "Structural changes in commuters' daily travel: The case of auto and transit commuters in the Osaka metropolitan area of Japan, 1980-2000," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-115, January.
  31. Athias, Laure & Nunez, Antonio, 2008. "The more the merrier? Number of bidders, information dispersion, renegotiation and winner’s curse in toll road concessions," MPRA Paper 10539, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Hironori Kato & Yuichiro Kaneko & Masashi Inoue, 2010. "Comparative analysis of transit assignment: evidence from urban railway system in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area," Transportation, Springer, vol. 37(5), pages 775-799, September.
  33. Massimo Florio & Silvia Vignetti, 2013. "The use of ex post Cost-Benefit Analysis to assess the long-term effects of Major Infrastructure Projects," Working Papers 201302, CSIL Centre for Industrial Studies.
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