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The great wars, the great crash, and steady state growth: Some new evidence about an old stylized fact

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Jones, Charles I., 2005. "Growth and Ideas," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1063-1111, Elsevier.
  2. Thomas A. Garrett, 2009. "War And Pestilence As Labor Market Shocks: U.S. Manufacturing Wage Growth 1914–1919," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 711-725, October.
  3. Mar'ia Jos'e Presno & Manuel Landajo & Paula Fern'andez Gonz'alez, 2024. "Stochastic convergence in per capita CO$_2$ emissions. An approach from nonlinear stationarity analysis," Papers 2402.00567, arXiv.org.
  4. Juan Cuestas & Dean Garratt, 2011. "Is real GDP per capita a stationary process? Smooth transitions, nonlinear trends and unit root testing," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 555-563, December.
  5. Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa‐Santaulària, 2006. "Spurious Regression Under Broken‐Trend Stationarity," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 671-684, September.
  6. Serena Ng & Timothy Vogelsang, 2002. "Analysis Of Vector Autoregressions In The Presence Of Shifts In Mean," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 353-381.
  7. Christopher Laincz & Pietro Peretto, 2006. "Scale effects in endogenous growth theory: an error of aggregation not specification," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 263-288, September.
  8. Yudong Yao & Yan Wang, 2007. "Measuring downside risk and severity for global output," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 23-32.
  9. Osvaldo Meloni, 2005. "Crecimiento potencial y productividad en la Argentina: 1980-1997," Development and Comp Systems 0503001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Steven Cook & Alan Speight, 2006. "International Business Cycle Asymmetry and Time Irreversible Nonlinearities," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(10), pages 1051-1065.
  11. Steven Cook, 2008. "More uncertainty: on the trending nature of real GDP in the US and UK," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 667-670.
  12. Murray, Christian J. & Nelson, Charles R., 2000. "The uncertain trend in U.S. GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 79-95, August.
  13. Frank T. Rothaermel & Charles W. L. Hill, 2005. "Technological Discontinuities and Complementary Assets: A Longitudinal Study of Industry and Firm Performance," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 16(1), pages 52-70, February.
  14. Presno, María José & Landajo, Manuel & Fernández González, Paula, 2018. "Stochastic convergence in per capita CO2 emissions. An approach from nonlinear stationarity analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 563-581.
  15. Tsangyao Chang & Gengnan Chiang & Yichun Zhang, 2009. "Is volume index of gdp per capita stationary in oecd countries? panel stationary tests with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 588-598.
  16. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
  17. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 2000. "Knowledge Dissemination, Capital Accumulation, Trade, and Endogenous Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 637-650, October.
  18. Dan Ben-David & Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 2003. "Unit roots, postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: Evidence from two structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 303-319, April.
  19. Alvaro Pereira & João Jalles & Martin Andresen, 2012. "Structural change and foreign direct investment: globalization and regional economic integration," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 11(1), pages 35-82, April.
  20. Sorensen, Anders, 1999. "R&D, Learning, and Phases of Economic Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(4), pages 429-445, December.
  21. Deleersnyder, B. & Geyskens, I. & Gielens, K. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2002. "How Cannibalistic is the Internet Channel?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-22-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  22. Noriega, Antonio E. & Soria, Luis M. & Velázquez, Ramón, 2008. "International evidence on stochastic and deterministic monetary neutrality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1261-1275, November.
  23. Nyong, M. O. & Udah, E. B., 2012. "Industrial Time Series of Nigeria, 1970-2009: Evolution and Unit Root Testing in the Presence of Multiple Endogenous Structural Breaks," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 12(1).
  24. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1998. "Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 143-170, June.
  25. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
  26. Dan Ben-David & David H. Papell, 1998. "Slowdowns And Meltdowns: Postwar Growth Evidence From 74 Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 561-571, November.
  27. Deleersnyder, B. & Geyskens, I. & Gielens, K.J.P. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2002. "How cannibalistic is the internet channel? A study of the newspaper industry in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands," Other publications TiSEM 16dcb25c-7ea9-4c75-bdf6-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  28. Papell David H. & Prodan Ruxandra, 2012. "The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-31, October.
  29. Abdul Rahman & Samir Saadi, 2008. "Random walk and breaking trend in financial series: An econometric critique of unit root tests," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(3), pages 204-212, August.
  30. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
  31. Nazrul Islam, 2003. "What have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 309-362, July.
  32. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
  33. Peter Dolton & Li Lin, 2011. "From Grants to Loans and Fees: The Demand for Post-Compulsory Education in England and Wales from 1955 to 2008," CEE Discussion Papers 0127, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
  34. David E. Rapach, 2002. "Are Real GDP Levels Nonstationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 473-495, January.
  35. Smyth, Russell & Inder, Brett, 2004. "Is Chinese provincial real GDP per capita nonstationary?: Evidence from multiple trend break unit root tests," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 1-24.
  36. Hiller, Sanne & Kruse, Robinson, 2010. "Milestones of European Integration: Which matters most for Export Openness?," Working Papers 10-7, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Economics.
  37. Blum Matthias & McLaughlin Eoin & Hanley Nick, 2019. "Accounting for Sustainable Development over the Long-Run: Lessons from Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 410-446, December.
  38. Antonio E. Noriega & Araceli Ramírez-Zamora, 1999. "Unit roots and multiple structural breaks in real output," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 14(2), pages 163-188.
  39. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:2:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
  40. Chi-Wei Su & Hsu-Ling Chang, 2013. "Is income converging in China?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(2), pages 341-356, April.
  41. Natalie Hegwood & David H. Papell, 2007. "Are Real GDP Levels Trend, Difference, or Regime‐Wise Trend Stationary? Evidence from Panel Data Tests Incorporating Structural Change," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(1), pages 104-113, July.
  42. Qian, Junhui & Su, Liangjun, 2016. "Shrinkage estimation of common breaks in panel data models via adaptive group fused Lasso," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 86-109.
  43. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
  44. Newbold, Paul & Leybourne, Stephen & Wohar, Mark E., 2001. "Trend-stationarity, difference-stationarity, or neither: further diagnostic tests with an application to U.S. Real GNP, 1875-1993," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 85-102.
  45. Diego Romero‐Ávila, 2007. "The Unit Root Hypothesis for Aggregate Output May Not Hold after All: New Evidence from a Panel Stationarity Test with Multiple Breaks," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 642-658, January.
  46. repec:bla:econom:v:66:y:1999:i:262:p:209-24 is not listed on IDEAS
  47. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David H., 1997. "International trade and structural change," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 513-523, November.
  48. Giovanni Caggiano & Leone Leonida, 2009. "International output convergence: evidence from an autocorrelation function approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 139-162.
  49. Sobreira, Nuno & Nunesz, Luis C. & Rodriguesz, Paulo M. M., 2012. "Neoclassical, semi-endogenous or endogenous growth theory? Evidence based on new structural change tests," Insper Working Papers wpe_291, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  50. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2005. "Health care expenditure and GDP: Are they broken stationary?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 839-854, September.
  51. Charles Nelson & Jeremy Piger & Eric Zivot, 1999. "Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Markov Regime-Switching," Working Papers 0040, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  52. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples," MPRA Paper 29379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu & Shu-Chen Kang & Kuei-Chiu Lee, 2008. "Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in Latin American Countries? Evidence from a Panel Stationary Test with Structural Breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(31), pages 1-12.
  54. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
  55. Lamey, L. & Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Steenkamp, J-B.E.M., 2005. "The Impact of Business-Cycle Fluctuations on Private-Label Share," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-061-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
  56. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2010. "Are business cycles stationary fluctuations around a deterministic trend? Empirical evidence from 79 developing countries," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 649-664.
  57. Marcela Sabaté, 2009. "Vertical Specialization and Nonstationarities in International Trade Series," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp309, IIIS.
  58. Nuno Sobreira & Luis C. Nunes & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2014. "Characterizing Economic Growth Paths Based On New Structural Change Tests," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 845-861, April.
  59. Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "Multiple trend shifts and unit roots in US state income levels: implications for long-run growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 641-661, June.
  60. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Robust analysis of convergence in per capita GDP in BRICS economies," MPRA Paper 86936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Claude Lopez, 2013. "Unit Roots, Level Shifts, and Trend Breaks in Per Capita Output: A Robust Evaluation," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 892-927, November.
  62. Rothaermel, Frank T., 2001. "Complementary assets, strategic alliances, and the incumbent's advantage: an empirical study of industry and firm effects in the biopharmaceutical industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1235-1251, October.
  63. Pedersen, Torben Mark & Elmer, Anne Marie, 2003. "International evidence on the connection between business cycles and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 255-275, June.
  64. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2007. "Are G7 per capita real GDP levels non-stationary, 1870-2001?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 374-379, August.
  65. Kumar Narayan, Paresh, 2005. "The relationship between saving and investment for Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 293-309, August.
  66. repec:hit:hitjcm:v:56:y:2015:i:1:p:117-134 is not listed on IDEAS
  67. Omid Ranjbar & Xiao-Lin Li & Tsangyao Chang & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2015. "Stability of long-run growth in East Asian countries: New evidence from panel stationarity test with structural breaks," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 570-589, June.
  68. Ben-David, D. & Papell, D.H., 1996. "Structural Change and International Trade," Papers 41-96, Tel Aviv.
  69. Robert F. Martin & Teyanna Munyan & Beth Anne Wilson, 2014. "Potential Output and Recessions: Are We Fooling Ourselves?," IFDP Notes 2014-11-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  70. Zheng Ying & Chang-Rui Dong & Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su, 2014. "Are Real GDP Levels Stationary in African Countries?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(3), pages 392-401, September.
  71. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
  72. Natalie D. Hegwood & David H. Papell, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 69(1), pages 72-91, July.
  73. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 466-479, April.
  74. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2019. "Does U.K.’s Real GDP have a Unit Root? Evidence from a Multi-Century Perspective," Working Papers 201926, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  75. Pandey, Alok Kumar & Dixit, Annapurna, 2011. "Inequality, Decomposition of Inequality and Stationarity of State Domestic Product: An Empirical Evidence from Twenty Indian States," MPRA Paper 54237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2014. "Long run time series tests of constant steady-state growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 464-474.
  77. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Is OECD real per capita GDP trend or difference stationary? Evidence from panel unit root tests," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 673-689.
  78. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Are 19 Developed Countries' Real Per Capita GDP levels Non-stationary? A Revisit," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(2), pages 1-11.
  79. Clive Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2000. "Model evaluation based on residual analysis of two similar models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(7), pages 861-867.
  80. Landon-Lane, John S. & Robertson, Peter E., 2009. "Long-run growth in the OECD: A test of the parallel growth paths hypothesis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 346-355, July.
  81. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor & Bart Verpagen, 2019. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in long run time series," LEM Papers Series 2019/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  82. Huang, Yu-Lieh & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 2015. "Uncertain Effects Of Shocks Vs. Uncertain Unit Root: An Alternative View Of U.S. Real Gdp," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 56(1), pages 117-134, June.
  83. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:31:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  84. Lee, Yi-Lung & Ranjbar, Omid & Jahangard, Fateme & Chang, Tsangyao, 2020. "Analyzing slowdown and meltdowns in the African countries: New evidence using Fourier quantile unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 187-198.
  85. Steger, Thomas M., 2002. "Transitional dynamics in R&D-based models of endogenous growth," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 04/2002, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.
  86. Schüler, Yves S., 2018. "Detrending and financial cycle facts across G7 countries: mind a spurious medium term!," Working Paper Series 2138, European Central Bank.
  87. Christopher A. Laincz & Pietro F. Peretto, 2004. "Scale Effects, An Error of Aggregation Not Specification: Empirical Evidence," DEGIT Conference Papers c009_037, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  88. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "Testing the Unit Root Hypothesis When the Alternative is a Trend Break Stationary Process: An Application to Tourist Arrivals in Fiji," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 351-364, September.
  89. Luiz Lima & Jaime de Jesus Filho, 2008. "Further investigation of the uncertain trend in US GDP," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(9), pages 1207-1216.
  90. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2000. "The Great Leap Forward, Economic Reforms, and the Unit Root Hypothesis: Testing for Breaking Trend Functions in China's GDP Data," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 814-827, December.
  91. Emanuele Russo & Neil Foster-McGregor, 2022. "Characterizing growth instability: new evidence on unit roots and structural breaks in countries’ long run trajectories," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 713-756, April.
  92. Hanifi FIRAT, 2016. "Is Real Gdp Stationary? Evidence From Some Unit Root Tests For The Advanced Economies," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 60-80, DECEMBER.
  93. Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Inekwe, John & Ivanovski, Kris & Smyth, Russell, 2020. "Stationarity properties of per capita CO2 emissions in the OECD in the very long-run: A replication and extension analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
  94. Paresh Narayan, 2008. "Is Asian per capita GDP panel stationary?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 439-449, June.
  95. Yi-Chi Chen & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Postwar slowdowns and long-run growth: a Bayesian analysis of structural break models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 897-921, December.
  96. Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2007. "Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in the OECD Countries? Evidence from a Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 9635, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  97. Kornelis, Marcel & Dekimpe, Marnik G. & Leeflang, Peter S.H., 2008. "Does competitive entry structurally change key marketing metrics?," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 173-182.
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