IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/r/eee/jobhdp/v107y2008i2p179-191.html
   My bibliography  Save this item

Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as


Cited by:

  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Daniel Benjamin & David R Mandel & Jonathan Kimmelman, 2017. "Can cancer researchers accurately judge whether preclinical reports will reproduce?," PLOS Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(6), pages 1-17, June.
  3. Matthew B. Welsh & Steve H. Begg, 2018. "More-or-less elicitation (MOLE): reducing bias in range estimation and forecasting," EURO Journal on Decision Processes, Springer;EURO - The Association of European Operational Research Societies, vol. 6(1), pages 171-212, June.
  4. Kawamura, Tetsuya & Mori, Tomoharu & Motonishi, Taizo & Ogawa, Kazuhito, 2021. "Is Financial Literacy Dangerous? Financial Literacy, Behavioral Factors, and Financial Choices of Households," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  5. Don A. Moore & Samuel A. Swift & Angela Minster & Barbara Mellers & Lyle Ungar & Philip Tetlock & Heather H. J. Yang & Elizabeth R. Tenney, 2017. "Confidence Calibration in a Multiyear Geopolitical Forecasting Competition," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(11), pages 3552-3565, November.
  6. Joseph R. Radzevick & Don A. Moore, 2011. "Competing to Be Certain (But Wrong): Market Dynamics and Excessive Confidence in Judgment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 93-106, January.
  7. Saemi Park & David V. Budescu, 2015. "Aggregating multiple probability intervals to improve calibration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 10(2), pages 130-143, March.
  8. Ying Han & David V. Budescu, 2022. "Recalibrating probabilistic forecasts to improve their accuracy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 17(1), pages 91-123, January.
  9. Bonaccorsi, Andrea & Apreda, Riccardo & Fantoni, Gualtiero, 2020. "Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  10. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:1:p:29-41 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. repec:cup:judgdm:v:15:y:2020:i:5:p:783-797 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Ferretti, Valentina & Guney, Sule & Montibeller, Gilberto & Winterfeldt, Detlof von, 2016. "Testing best practices to reduce the overconfidence bias in multi-criteria decision analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67179, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  13. Hanea, Anca & Wilkinson, David Peter & McBride, Marissa & Lyon, Aidan & van Ravenzwaaij, Don & Singleton Thorn, Felix & Gray, Charles T. & Mandel, David R. & Willcox, Aaron & Gould, Elliot, 2021. "Mathematically aggregating experts' predictions of possible futures," MetaArXiv rxmh7, Center for Open Science.
  14. Satopää, Ville A. & Baron, Jonathan & Foster, Dean P. & Mellers, Barbara A. & Tetlock, Philip E. & Ungar, Lyle H., 2014. "Combining multiple probability predictions using a simple logit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 344-356.
  15. Wookjae Heo & Abed G. Rabbani & Jae Min Lee, 2021. "Mediation between financial risk tolerance and equity ownership: assessing the role of financial knowledge underconfidence," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(3), pages 169-180, September.
  16. Kris Hardies & Diane Breesch & Joël Branson, 2011. "Male and female auditors' overconfidence," Managerial Auditing Journal, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 105-118, November.
  17. Vetter, J. & Benlian, Alexander & Hess, T., 2011. "Overconfidence in IT Investment Decisions: Why Knowledge can be Boon and Bane at the same Time," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 58030, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  18. Sayyed Sadaqat Hussain Shah & Xia Xinping & Muhammad Asif Khan & Sinan Abdullah Harjan, 2018. "Investor and Manager Overconfidence Bias and Firm Value: Micro-Level Evidence from the Pakistan Equity Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 190-199.
  19. Michał Krawczyk & Maciej Wilamowski, 2015. "Are we all overconfident in the long run? Evidence from one million marathon participants," Working Papers 2015-01, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  20. Bonnie C. Wintle & Ann Nicholson, 2014. "Exploring Risk Judgments in a Trade Dispute Using Bayesian Networks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(6), pages 1095-1111, June.
  21. Patrick Afflerbach & Christopher Dun & Henner Gimpel & Dominik Parak & Johannes Seyfried, 2021. "A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Wisdom of Crowds Phenomenon in Aggregating Expert Judgment," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 63(4), pages 329-348, August.
  22. Andrew Speirs‐Bridge & Fiona Fidler & Marissa McBride & Louisa Flander & Geoff Cumming & Mark Burgman, 2010. "Reducing Overconfidence in the Interval Judgments of Experts," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(3), pages 512-523, March.
  23. David R. Mandel & Robert N. Collins & Evan F. Risko & Jonathan A. Fugelsang, 2020. "Effect of confidence interval construction on judgment accuracy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 15(5), pages 783-797, September.
  24. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115333, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  25. repec:cup:judgdm:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:130-143 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Hanea, A.M. & McBride, M.F. & Burgman, M.A. & Wintle, B.C. & Fidler, F. & Flander, L. & Twardy, C.R. & Manning, B. & Mascaro, S., 2017. "I nvestigate D iscuss E stimate A ggregate for structured expert judgement," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 267-279.
  27. James Wang, 2020. "Screening soft information: evidence from loan officers," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(4), pages 1287-1322, December.
  28. Merkle, Christoph, 2018. "The curious case of negative volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 92-108.
  29. repec:cup:judgdm:v:17:y:2022:i:1:p:91-123 is not listed on IDEAS
  30. Tomas Miklanek, 2017. "Ego-utility and Endogenous Information Acquisition; An Experimental Study," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp582, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  31. Amandha Ganegoda & John Evans, 2014. "A framework to manage the measurable, immeasurable and the unidentifiable financial risk," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(1), pages 5-34, February.
  32. Bradley R. Staats & Diwas S. KC & Francesca Gino, 2018. "Maintaining Beliefs in the Face of Negative News: The Moderating Role of Experience," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(2), pages 804-824, February.
  33. Michał Krawczyk, 2011. "Overconfident for real? Proper scoring for confidence intervals," Working Papers 2011-15, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
  34. Ferretti, Valentina & Montibeller, Gilberto & von Winterfeldt, Detlof, 2023. "Testing the effectiveness of debiasing techniques to reduce overprecision in the elicitation of subjective continuous probability distributions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 661-675.
  35. Merkle, Christoph, 2017. "Financial overconfidence over time: Foresight, hindsight, and insight of investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-87.
  36. Julia P. Prims & Don A. Moore, 2017. "Overconfidence over the lifespan," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(1), pages 29-41, January.
  37. Ogbeide, Henry & Thomson, Mary Elizabeth & Gonul, Mustafa Sinan & Pollock, Andrew Castairs & Bhowmick, Sanjay & Bello, Abdullahi Usman, 2023. "The anti-money laundering risk assessment: A probabilistic approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
  38. Sulian Wang & Chen Wang, 2021. "Quantile Judgments of Lognormal Losses: An Experimental Investigation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 18(1), pages 78-99, March.
IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.