IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v57y2011i1p93-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Competing to Be Certain (But Wrong): Market Dynamics and Excessive Confidence in Judgment

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph R. Radzevick

    (Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213)

  • Don A. Moore

    (Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California 94720)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate how market competition contributes to the expression of overconfidence among those competing for influence. We find evidence that market competition exacerbates the tendency to express excessive confidence. This evidence comes from experiments in which advisors attempt to sell their advice. In the first, advisors must compete with other advice sellers. In the second, advisors and their customers are paired. Advisors are overconfident in both studies and it helps advisors sell their advice. However, competition between advisors in the market further exacerbates overconfidence. In a third study, we demonstrate that the market competition drives overconfidence even when advisors vary in quality. We also investigate the strategic expressions and interpretations of confidence by both sides in the exchange. This paper was accepted by Peter Wakker, decision analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph R. Radzevick & Don A. Moore, 2011. "Competing to Be Certain (But Wrong): Market Dynamics and Excessive Confidence in Judgment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(1), pages 93-106, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:1:p:93-106
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1100.1255
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1255
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1255?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Jr. & Robert L. Winkler, 2007. "Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(11), pages 1745-1755, November.
    2. Moore, Don A. & Klein, William M.P., 2008. "Use of absolute and comparative performance feedback in absolute and comparative judgments and decisions," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 60-74, September.
    3. Frances Westley & Henry Mintzberg, 1989. "Visionary leadership and strategic management," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(S1), pages 17-32, June.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    5. Sniezek, Janet A. & Buckley, Timothy, 1995. "Cueing and Cognitive Conflict in Judge-Advisor Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 159-174, May.
    6. Francis J. Flynn & Barry M. Staw, 2004. "Lend me your wallets: the effect of charismatic leadership on external support for an organization," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 309-330, April.
    7. Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-137, February.
    8. William P. Bottom & Kevin Gibson & Steven E. Daniels & J. Keith Murnighan, 2002. "When Talk Is Not Cheap: Substantive Penance and Expressions of Intent in Rebuilding Cooperation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(5), pages 497-513, October.
    9. George A. Akerlof, 1970. "The Market for "Lemons": Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 84(3), pages 488-500.
    10. Mathew L. A. Hayward & Dean A. Shepherd & Dale Griffin, 2006. "A Hubris Theory of Entrepreneurship," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 160-172, February.
    11. Sniezek, Janet A. & Van Swol, Lyn M., 2001. "Trust, Confidence, and Expertise in a Judge-Advisor System," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 288-307, March.
    12. Reinhard Selten, 1998. "Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-61, June.
    13. McKenzie, Craig R.M. & Liersch, Michael J. & Yaniv, Ilan, 2008. "Overconfidence in interval estimates: What does expertise buy you?," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 179-191, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lejarraga, Tomás & Lejarraga, José, 2020. "Confidence and the description–experience distinction," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 201-212.
    2. Pirinsky, Christo, 2013. "Confidence and economic attitudes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 139-158.
    3. Aghazadeh, Sanaz & Hoang, Kris, 2020. "How does audit firm emphasis on client relationship quality influence auditors’ inferences about and responses to potential persuasion in client communications?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    4. Leiby, Justin, 2018. "The role of consultants and management prestige in management control system adoption," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-13.
    5. Song, Zhuzhu & Tang, Wansheng & Zhao, Ruiqing & Zhang, Guoqing, 2021. "Inventory strategy of the risk averse supplier and overconfident manufacturer with uncertain demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    6. Aghazadeh, Sanaz & Joe, Jennifer R., 2022. "Auditors' response to management confidence and misstatement risk," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    7. W. Robert Knechel & Justin Leiby, 2016. "If You Want My Advice: Status Motives and Audit Consultations About Accounting Estimates," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(5), pages 1331-1364, December.
    8. Asmus Leth Olsen, 2018. "Precise performance: Do citizens rely on numerical precision as a cue of confidence?," Journal of Behavioral Public Administration, Center for Experimental and Behavioral Public Administration, vol. 1(1).
    9. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Victor Richmond R. Jose & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., 2017. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 1110-1130, April.
    10. Mitchell Hoffman, 2014. "Training Contracts, Worker Overconfidence, and the Provision of Firm-Sponsored General Training," 2014 Meeting Papers 203, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Haran, Uriel & Mazar, Asaf & Hurwitz, Mordechai & Moran, Simone, 2022. "Confidently at your service: Advisors alter their stated confidence to be helpful," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    12. Jain, Tarun & Hazra, Jishnu & Cheng, T.C.E., 2018. "Sourcing under overconfident buyer and suppliers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 93-109.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pirinsky, Christo, 2013. "Confidence and economic attitudes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 139-158.
    2. Cédric Gutierrez & Thomas Åstebro & Tomasz Obloj, 2020. "The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(2), pages 308-329, March.
    3. Sah, Sunita & Moore, Don A. & MacCoun, Robert J., 2013. "Cheap talk and credibility: The consequences of confidence and accuracy on advisor credibility and persuasiveness," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 246-255.
    4. Prokudina, Elena & Renneboog, Luc & Tobler, Philippe, 2015. "Does Confidence Predict Out-of-Domain Effort?," Discussion Paper 2015-055, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Gino, Francesca, 2008. "Do we listen to advice just because we paid for it? The impact of advice cost on its use," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 234-245, November.
    6. Wu, Meng-Wen & Xu, Li & Shen, Chung-hua & Zhang, Ke-Kun, 2021. "Overconfident CEOs and shadow banking in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Logg, Jennifer M. & Minson, Julia A. & Moore, Don A., 2019. "Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 90-103.
    8. Tetsushi Sonobe & Keijiro Otsuka, 2012. "The Role of Training in Fostering Cluster-Based Micro and Small Enterprises Development," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-099, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Elena Kulchina, 2016. "A path to value creation for foreign entrepreneurs," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7), pages 1240-1262, July.
    10. Giau Bui, Dien & Chen, Yehning & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2021. "Risk-taking of bank CEOs and corporate innovation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Jiatao Li & Yi Tang, 2013. "The Social Influence of Executive Hubris," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 83-107, February.
    12. Athreya, Kartik B., 2014. "Big Ideas in Macroeconomics: A Nontechnical View," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262019736, April.
    13. An, Suwei, 2023. "Essays on incentive contracts, M&As, and firm risk," Other publications TiSEM dd97d2f5-1c9d-47c5-ba62-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Bonaccio, Silvia & Dalal, Reeshad S., 2006. "Advice taking and decision-making: An integrative literature review, and implications for the organizational sciences," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 127-151, November.
    15. Palmeira, Mauricio, 2020. "Advice in the presence of external cues: The impact of conflicting judgments on perceptions of expertise," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 82-96.
    16. Bassem Salhi, 2021. "RETRACTED: The Relationship between CEO Psychological Biases, Corporate Governance and Corporate Social Responsibility," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-19, July.
    17. Jodlbauer, Barbara & Jonas, Eva, 2011. "Forecasting clients' reactions: How does the perception of strategic behavior influence the acceptance of advice?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 121-133, January.
    18. Miglo Anton, 2021. "Crowdfunding Under Market Feedback, Asymmetric Information And Overconfident Entrepreneur," Entrepreneurship Research Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-19, October.
    19. John J. Nay & Martin Van der Linden & Jonathan M. Gilligan, 2016. "Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change," Papers 1603.08961, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
    20. Persson, Lars & Seiler, Thomas, 2022. "Entrepreneurial optimism and creative destruction," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:57:y:2011:i:1:p:93-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.