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Forecasting spikes in electricity prices

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Clements, A.E. & Hurn, A.S. & Li, Z., 2016. "Strategic bidding and rebidding in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 24-36.
  2. Stephen Machin & Olivier Marie & Sunčica Vujić, 2012. "Youth Crime and Education Expansion," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(4), pages 366-384, November.
  3. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
  4. Stylianos Loizidis & Georgios Konstantinidis & Spyros Theocharides & Andreas Kyprianou & George E. Georghiou, 2023. "Electricity Day-Ahead Market Conditions and Their Effect on the Different Supervised Algorithms for Market Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-29, June.
  5. Figueiredo, Nuno Carvalho & Silva, Patrícia Pereira da & Bunn, Derek, 2016. "Weather and market specificities in the regional transmission of renewable energy price effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 188-200.
  6. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Nicolás, 2014. "The modeling and forecasting of extreme events in electricity spot markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 477-490.
  7. Raviv, Eran & Bouwman, Kees E. & van Dijk, Dick, 2015. "Forecasting day-ahead electricity prices: Utilizing hourly prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 227-239.
  8. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert & Sven Husmann, 2014. "Efficient Modeling and Forecasting of the Electricity Spot Price," Papers 1402.7027, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2014.
  9. Eichler, M. & Türk, D., 2013. "Fitting semiparametric Markov regime-switching models to electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 614-624.
  10. Marwan, Marwan, 2020. "The impact of probability of electricity price spike and outside temperature to define total expected cost for air conditioning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
  11. Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
  12. Pawel Maryniak & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Forecasting the occurrence of electricity price spikes in the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  13. Tafakori, Laleh & Pourkhanali, Armin & Fard, Farzad Alavi, 2018. "Forecasting spikes in electricity return innovations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 508-526.
  14. A. Stan Hurn & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2016. "A Smooth Transition Logit Model of The Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 707-733, June.
  15. Lynch & John Curtis, 2016. "The effects of wind generation capacity on electricity prices and generation costs: a Monte Carlo analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 133-151, January.
  16. Ping Jiang & Feng Liu & Yiliao Song, 2016. "A Hybrid Multi-Step Model for Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Price Based on Optimization, Fuzzy Logic and Model Selection," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-27, August.
  17. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  18. Michael Polson & Vadim Sokolov, 2018. "Deep Learning for Energy Markets," Papers 1808.05527, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2019.
  19. Mira Watermeyer & Thomas Mobius & Oliver Grothe & Felix Musgens, 2023. "A hybrid model for day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Combining fundamental and stochastic modelling," Papers 2304.09336, arXiv.org.
  20. Eichler, M. & Grothe, O. & Manner, H. & Türk, D.D.T., 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  21. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Erten, Ibrahim, 2022. "Price spikes, temporary price caps, and welfare effects of regulatory interventions on wholesale electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
  22. Liu, Luyao & Bai, Feifei & Su, Chenyu & Ma, Cuiping & Yan, Ruifeng & Li, Hailong & Sun, Qie & Wennersten, Ronald, 2022. "Forecasting the occurrence of extreme electricity prices using a multivariate logistic regression model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
  23. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2016. "Electricity price forecasting using sale and purchase curves: The X-Model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 435-454.
  24. Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses & Antonio Muñoz, 2016. "Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-27, March.
  25. Rangga Handika & Chi Truong & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Modelling price spikes in electricity markets - the impact of load, weather and capacity," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  26. Eichler, M. & Türk, D.D.T., 2012. "Fitting semiparametric Markov regime-switching models to electricity spot prices," Research Memorandum 035, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  27. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert, 2015. "Electricity Price Forecasting using Sale and Purchase Curves: The X-Model," Papers 1509.00372, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
  28. Nadja Klein & Michael Stanley Smith & David J. Nott, 2023. "Deep distributional time series models and the probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 493-511, June.
  29. Pagnier, Laurent & Jacquod, Philippe, 2018. "How fast can one overcome the paradox of the energy transition? A physico-economic model for the European power grid," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 550-560.
  30. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
  31. Ergemen, Yunus Emre & Haldrup, Niels & Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir, 2016. "Common long-range dependence in a panel of hourly Nord Pool electricity prices and loads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
  32. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  33. Lin Han & Ivor Cribben & Stefan Trueck, 2022. "Extremal Dependence in Australian Electricity Markets," Papers 2202.09970, arXiv.org.
  34. Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
  35. George P Papaioannou & Christos Dikaiakos & Anargyros Dramountanis & Dionysios S Georgiadis & Panagiotis G Papaioannou, 2017. "Using nonlinear stochastic and deterministic (chaotic tools) to test the EMH of two Electricity Markets the case of Italy and Greece," Papers 1711.10552, arXiv.org.
  36. Nishio, Kazuki & Hoshino, Takahiro, 2022. "Joint modeling of effects of customer tier program on customer purchase duration and purchase amount," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
  37. Lars Ivar Hagfors & Hilde Hørthe Kamperud & Florentina Paraschiv & Marcel Prokopczuk & Alma Sator & Sjur Westgaard, 2016. "Prediction of extreme price occurrences in the German day-ahead electricity market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1929-1948, December.
  38. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
  39. Galarneau-Vincent, Rémi & Gauthier, Geneviève & Godin, Frédéric, 2023. "Foreseeing the worst: Forecasting electricity DART spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  40. Perera, Indeewara & Silvapulle, Mervyn J., 2021. "Bootstrap based probability forecasting in multiplicative error models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 1-24.
  41. Hung Do & Rabindra Nepal & Russell Smyth, 2020. "Interconnectedness in the Australian National Electricity Market: A Higher‐Moment Analysis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(315), pages 450-469, December.
  42. Maciej Kostrzewski & Jadwiga Kostrzewska, 2021. "The Impact of Forecasting Jumps on Forecasting Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-17, January.
  43. Stephen Haben & Julien Caudron & Jake Verma, 2021. "Probabilistic Day-Ahead Wholesale Price Forecast: A Case Study in Great Britain," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-37, August.
  44. Segnon Mawuli & Lau Chi Keung & Wilfling Bernd & Gupta Rangan, 2022. "Are multifractal processes suited to forecasting electricity price volatility? Evidence from Australian intraday data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 26(1), pages 73-98, February.
  45. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  46. Pawel Maryniak & Stefan Trueck & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Carbon pricing, forward risk premiums and pass-through rates in Australian electricity futures markets," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/10, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  47. Laurent Pagnier & Philippe Jacquod, 2017. "How fast can one overcome the paradox of the energy transition? A physico-economic model for the European power grid," Papers 1706.00330, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2018.
  48. Adam Clements & Joanne Fuller & Stan Hurn, 2013. "Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 508-521, December.
  49. Jerzy Rembeza & Grzegorz Przekota, 2022. "Influence of the Industry’s Output on Electricity Prices: Comparison of the Nord Pool and HUPX Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-15, August.
  50. Hryshchuk, Antanina & Lessmann, Stefan, 2018. "Deregulated day-ahead electricity markets in Southeast Europe: Price forecasting and comparative structural analysis," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-009, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
  51. Andersson, Jonas & Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh, 2023. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices using an augmented LMARX-model," Discussion Papers 2023/11, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  52. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  53. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
  54. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Efficient modeling and forecasting of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 98-111.
  55. Bikeri Adline & Kazushi Ikeda, 2023. "A Hawkes Model Approach to Modeling Price Spikes in the Japanese Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-20, February.
  56. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2019. "Modelling and forecasting wind drought," Working Paper Series 18219, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.
  57. Nazifi, Fatemeh & Trück, Stefan & Zhu, Liangxu, 2021. "Carbon pass-through rates on spot electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
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