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A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
  2. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2019. "The Anchoring Of Inflation Expectations In The Short And In The Long Run," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1959-1977, July.
  3. Beqiraj Elton & Di Bartolomeo Giovanni & Serpieri Carolina, 2017. "Bounded-rationality and heterogeneous agents: Long or short forecasters?," wp.comunite 00132, Department of Communication, University of Teramo.
  4. Alexandre Kohlhas, 2018. "Asymmetric Attention," 2018 Meeting Papers 1040, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Artūras Juodis & Simas Kučinskas, 2023. "Quantifying noise in survey expectations," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), pages 609-650, May.
  6. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
  7. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“A geometric approach to proxy economic uncertainty by a metric of disagreement among qualitative expectations”," IREA Working Papers 201806, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2018.
  8. Elton Beqiraj & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marco Di Pietro & Carolina Serpieri, 2020. "Bounded rationality and heterogeneous expectations: Euler versus anticipated-utility approach," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 130(3), pages 249-273, August.
  9. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
  10. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "“Measuring and assessing economic uncertainty”," AQR Working Papers 2012003, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jul 2020.
  11. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward guidance under disagreement: Evidence from the Fed's dot projections," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-041, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  12. Jonas Dovern & Matthias Hartmann, 2017. "Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 63-77, August.
  13. An, Zidong & Zheng, Xinye, 2023. "Diligent forecasters can make accurate predictions despite disagreeing with the consensus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
  14. Siklos, Pierre, 2017. "What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors," LCERPA Working Papers 0098, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised 01 Apr 2017.
  15. Petar Soric & Oscar Claveria, 2021. ""Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic"," IREA Working Papers 202112, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2021.
  16. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111603, Joint Research Centre.
  17. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-041 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Ruttachai Seelajaroen & Pornanong Budsaratragoon & Boonlert Jitmaneeroj, 2020. "Do monetary policy transparency and central bank communication reduce interest rate disagreement?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 368-393, April.
  19. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2019. "Transmission of uncertainty shocks: Learning from heterogeneous responses on a panel of EU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 62-83.
  20. Tomasz Łyziak & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2023. "Disagreement in Consumer Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2215-2241, December.
  21. Qiu, Yajie & Deschamps, Bruno & Liu, Xiaoquan, 2024. "Uncertainty and macroeconomic forecasts: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 224(C), pages 463-480.
  22. Oscar Claveria, 2020. "Business and consumer uncertainty in the face of the pandemic: A sector analysis in European countries," Papers 2012.02091, arXiv.org.
  23. Czudaj, Robert L., 2025. "Expectation formation and the Phillips curve revisited," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29, pages 1-1, January.
  24. Beckmann, Joscha, 2021. "Measurement and effects of euro/dollar exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 773-790.
  25. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  26. Zidong An & Salem Abo‐Zaid & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2023. "Inattention and the impact of monetary policy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 623-643, June.
  27. Czudaj, Robert L., 2022. "Heterogeneity of beliefs and information rigidity in the crude oil market: Evidence from survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  28. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:31-45 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
  30. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Caio Ferrari Ferreira, 2019. "Does monetary policy credibility mitigate the effects of uncertainty about exchange rate on uncertainties about both inflation and interest rate?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 649-678, October.
  31. Michael Frenkel & Jin-Kyu Jung & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2017. "Rationalizing the Bias in Central Banks' Interest Rate Projections," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 17-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  32. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Lamla, Michael J. & Wood, Andrew, 2019. "The implications of central bank transparency for uncertainty and disagreement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 222-240.
  33. Michael Frenkel & Jin-Kyu Jung & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2022. "Testing for the rationality of central bank interest rate forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1037-1078, March.
  34. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
  35. Heinisch, Katja & Lindner, Axel, 2021. "Economic sentiment: Disentangling private information from public knowledge," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  36. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Uncertainty indicators based on expectations of business and consumer surveys," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(2), pages 483-505, May.
  37. Lien, Donald & Sun, Yuchen & Zhang, Chengsi, 2021. "Uncertainty, confidence, and monetary policy in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1347-1358.
  38. Beckmann, Joscha & Reitz, Stefan, 2020. "Information rigidities and exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  39. Edward P. Herbst & Fabian Winkler, 2021. "The Factor Structure of Disagreement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-046, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  40. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty: A Geometric Indicator of Discrepancy Among Experts’ Expectations," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 95-114, May.
  41. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
  42. Antonecchia, Gianluca, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations, forecast accuracy and firms’ credit demand," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
  43. Fabian Kruger, 2024. "A Kernel Score Perspective on Forecast Disagreement and the Linear Pool," Papers 2412.09430, arXiv.org.
  44. Juan Camilo Anzoátegui Zapata & Juan Camilo Galvis Ciro, 2022. "Efectos de la comunicación del banco central sobre el desacuerdo en las expectativas de la tasa de política monetaria: evidencias para Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 14(2), pages 375-409, June.
  45. Detmers, Gunda-Alexandra, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed’s dot projections," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145768, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  46. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
  47. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
  48. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-015 is not listed on IDEAS
  49. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
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