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Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model

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Cited by:

  1. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1904-1937, July.
  2. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Kobielarz, Michał L. & Uras, Burak R., 2018. "Sovereign default, exit and contagion in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1-19.
  3. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
  4. Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Strategic Interactions and Contagion Effects under Monetary Unions," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(10), pages 1618-1629, October.
  5. De Santis, Roberto A., 2020. "Impact of the Asset Purchase Programme on euro area government bond yields using market news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 192-209.
  6. Candelon, Bertrand & Luisi, Angelo & Roccazzella, Francesco, 2022. "Fragmentation in the European Monetary Union: Is it really over?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
  7. Eleonora Cutrini & Giorgio Galeazzi, 2017. "External Public Debt, Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1718-1749, September.
  8. Debarsy, Nicolas & Dossougoin, Cyrille & Ertur, Cem & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2018. "Measuring sovereign risk spillovers and assessing the role of transmission channels: A spatial econometrics approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 21-45.
  9. Kinateder, Harald & Hofstetter, Benedikt & Wagner, Niklas, 2017. "Do liquidity variables improve out-of-sample prediction of sovereign spreads during crisis periods?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 144-150.
  10. Chen, Na & Jin, Xiu, 2020. "Industry risk transmission channels and the spillover effects of specific determinants in China’s stock market: A spatial econometrics approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  11. Chisiridis, Konstantinos & Mouratidis, Kostas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2022. "The north-south divide, the euro and the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
  12. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt Crisis in Europe (2001-2015): A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," MPRA Paper 89998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Elisabetta Croci Angelini & Francesco Farina & Enzo Valentini, 2016. "Contagion across Eurozone’s sovereign spreads and the Core-Periphery divide," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 197-213, February.
  14. Donato Ceci & Marcello Pericoli, 2022. "Sovereign spreads and economic fundamentals: an econometric analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 713, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  15. Guillaume Belly & Lukas Boeckelmann & Carlos Mateo Caicedo Graciano & Alberto Di Iorio & Klodiana Istrefi & Vasileios Siakoulis & Arthur Stalla‐Bourdillon, 2023. "Forecasting sovereign risk in the Euro area via machine learning," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 657-684, April.
  16. Berry A. Harahap & Pakasa Bary & Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma, 2020. "The Determinants of Indonesia’s Business Cycle," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 9(special i), pages 215-235.
  17. Beber, Alessandro & Brandt, Michael & Luisi, Maurizio, 2013. "Eurozone Sovereign Yield Spreads and Diverging Economic Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 9538, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
  19. Liyan Han & Mengchao Qi & Libo Yin, 2016. "Macroeconomic policy uncertainty shocks on the Chinese economy: a GVAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(51), pages 4907-4921, November.
  20. Chen, Na & Jin, Xiu, 2023. "Cross-industry asset allocation with the spatial interaction on multiple risk transmission channels," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  21. Consoli, Sergio & Pezzoli, Luca Tiozzo & Tosetti, Elisa, 2021. "Emotions in macroeconomic news and their impact on the European bond market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
  22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/59bp0vqv2b8k7a185vg2hert9v is not listed on IDEAS
  23. De Santis, Roberto A., 2015. "A measure of redenomination risk," Working Paper Series 1785, European Central Bank.
  24. Kobielarz, Michal, 2018. "The economics of monetary unions," Other publications TiSEM b0293536-68ec-4905-bffd-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  25. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
  26. Capasso, Salvatore & D'Uva, Marcella & Fiorelli, Cristiana & Napolitano, Oreste, 2023. "Cross-border Italian sovereign risk transmission in EMU countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  27. Tomoo Inoue & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2022. "How does unconventional monetary policy affect the global financial markets?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1013-1036, March.
  28. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 711-724, April.
  29. Ms. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Mr. Christian A Johnson, 2014. "Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe: The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece," IMF Working Papers 2014/076, International Monetary Fund.
  30. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/59bp0vqv2b8k7a185vg2hert9v is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Philippe Martin & Thomas Philippon, 2017. "Inspecting the Mechanism: Leverage and the Great Recession in the Eurozone," SciencePo Working papers hal-03391984, HAL.
  32. Massimo Amato & Everardo Belloni & Carlo A. Favero & Lucio Gobbi & Francesco Saraceno, 2024. "Stabilising market expectations through a market tool: a proposal for an enhanced TPI," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 597-615, July.
  33. Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko & Mehdi Hosseinkouchack & Alexis Meyer-Cirkel, 2014. "Global Financial Transmission into Sub-Saharan Africa – A Global Vector Autoregression Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2014/241, International Monetary Fund.
  34. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Commodity Price Shocks on Asian Economies," Discussion papers 17009, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  35. Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2016. "Using connectedness analysis to assess financial stress transmission in EMU sovereign bond market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 126-145.
  36. Roberto A. De Santis, 2019. "Redenomination Risk," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2173-2206, December.
  37. Zornitsa Todorova, 2020. "Network Risk in the European Sovereign CDS Market," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 12(2), pages 137-154, December.
  38. Stefano Neri & Stefano Siviero, 2019. "The non-standard monetary policy measures of the ECB: motivations, effectiveness and risks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 486, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  39. Li, Hong & Shi, Yanlin, 2021. "Forecasting mortality with international linkages: A global vector-autoregression approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 59-75.
  40. Li, Liyao & Yang, Zhenlin, 2020. "Estimation of fixed effects spatial dynamic panel data models with small T and unknown heteroskedasticity," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  41. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Claeys, Peter & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2016. "How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 216-235.
  42. Giuseppe Grande & Sergio Masciantonio & Andrea Tiseno, 2014. "The interest-rate sensitivity of the demand for sovereign debt. Evidence from OECD countries (1995-2011)," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 988, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  43. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "How Does Unconventional Monetary Policy Affect the Global Financial Markets?: Evaluating Policy Effects by Global VAR Models," Discussion papers 19031, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  44. Inoue,Tomoo & Kaya,Demet & Ohshige,Hitoshi, 2015. "The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region : an application of the GVAR model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.
  45. Piotr Kębłowski, 2021. "GVAR: A Case of Spurious Cross-Sectional Cointegration," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 175-187, June.
  46. Sergio Consoli & Luca Tiozzo Pezzoli & Elisa Tosetti, 2022. "Neural forecasting of the Italian sovereign bond market with economic news," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(S2), pages 197-224, December.
  47. Corsi, Fulvio & Lillo, Fabrizio & Pirino, Davide & Trapin, Luca, 2018. "Measuring the propagation of financial distress with Granger-causality tail risk networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 18-36.
  48. Christian Leschinski, Christian & Bertram, Philip, 2013. "Contagion Dynamics in EMU Government Bond Spreads," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-515, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  49. Sophie Béreau & Nicolas Debarsy & Cyrille Dossougoin & Jean-Yves Gnabo, 2022. "Contagion in the Banking Industry: a Robust-to-Endogeneity Analysis," Working Papers halshs-03513049, HAL.
  50. María Lorena Mari del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2017. "Dollarization and the relationship between EMBI and fundamentals in Latin American Countries," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 40(112), pages 14-30, Enero.
  51. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2022. "Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 79-127, February.
  52. Deng, Chao & Su, Xiaojian & Wang, Gangjin & Peng, Cheng, 2022. "The existence of flight-to-quality under extreme conditions: Evidence from a nonlinear perspective in Chinese stocks and bonds' sectors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
  53. Chen, Y. & He, M. & Rudkin, S., 2017. "Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 248-260.
  54. Francesco Calvori & Matteo Dentella & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Spreads within the Euro Area: When Fears Become Excess Fears," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2016_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  55. Paweł Tobera, 2019. "Ocena ratingowa a koszt obsługi długu publicznego w krajach Europy Środkowo-Wschodniej w latach 2005–2017," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 1, pages 87-109.
  56. Timo Bettendorf, 2019. "Spillover effects of credit default risk in the euro area and the effects on the Euro: A GVAR approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 296-312, January.
  57. Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Konstantakis, Konstantinos N., 2018. "Debt dynamics in Europe: A Network General Equilibrium GVAR approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 175-202.
  58. Filipa Fernandes & Charalampos Stasinakis & Zivile Zekaite, 2019. "Forecasting government bond spreads with heuristic models: evidence from the Eurozone periphery," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 87-118, November.
  59. Annari De Waal & Reneé van Eyden, 2016. "The Impact of Economic Shocks in the Rest of the World on South Africa: Evidence from a Global VAR," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(3), pages 557-573, March.
  60. Suh, Sangwon, 2015. "Measuring sovereign risk contagion in the Eurozone," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-65.
  61. Eleonora Cutrini and Giorgio Galeazzi, 2014. "Contagion in the Euro crisis: capital flows and trade linkages," Working Papers 44-2014, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised Nov 2014.
  62. Favero Carlo A. & Missale Alessandro, 2016. "Contagion in the EMU – The Role of Eurobonds with OMTs," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 555-584, November.
  63. Wang, Bo & Xiao, Yang, 2024. "Measuring spatial impacts and tracking cross-border risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 50-84.
  64. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2019. "News Releases, Credit Rating Announcements, and Anti-Crisis Measures as Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Peripheral Euro-Area Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 149-173, April.
  65. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2018. "Risk perceptions and fundamental effects on sovereign spreads," Working Papers 250, Bank of Greece.
  66. Britta Niehof, 2014. "Spillover Effects in Government Bond Spreads: Evidence from a GVAR Model," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201458, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  67. Marco Di Pietro & Luigi Marattin & Raoul Minetti, 2021. "Public debt, sovereign spreads and the unpleasant arithmetic of fiscal consolidations," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 155-178, August.
  68. Ryan R. Brady, 2021. "Direct Forecasting for Applied Regional Analysis," Departmental Working Papers 67, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
  69. Capasso Salvatore & D’Uva Marcella, & Fiorelli Cristiana & Napolitano Oreste, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Country-Specific Sovereign Risk on Financial and Banking System in EMU: the Role of Italy," CSEF Working Papers 654, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  70. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
  71. Montes-Rojas, Gabriel, 2017. "Reduced form vector directional quantiles," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 20-30.
  72. Reboredo, Juan C. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2015. "Systemic risk in European sovereign debt markets: A CoVaR-copula approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 214-244.
  73. Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Kizys, Renatas, 2020. "Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  74. Motto, Roberto & Özen, Kadir, 2022. "Market-stabilization QE," Working Paper Series 2640, European Central Bank.
  75. Lotfi, Somayyeh & Milidonis, Andreas & Zenios, Stavros A., 2024. "Mispricing of debt expansion in the eurozone sovereign credit market," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  76. Moisă Altăr & Alexandru-Adrian Cramer & Adam-Nelu Altăr-Samuel, 2015. "Sovereign Financial Asset Market Linkages across Europe During the Euro Zone Debt Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 29-49, December.
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