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GVAR: A Case of Spurious Cross-Sectional Cointegration

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  • Piotr Kębłowski

    (University of Łódź)

Abstract

Global Vector Autoregressive models came to be used quite widely in empirical studies using macroeconomic non-stationary panel data for the global economy. In this paper, it is shown that when the loading matrix of the cointegrating vectors is not block-diagonal and the cross-sectional spillovers of disequilibrium exist, the use of the GVAR model leads to spurious cross-sectional long-run relationships. Moreover, the results of Monte Carlo simulation show that the GVAR model is outperformed by other valid econometric approaches in terms of the maximum likelihood estimator of long-run coefficients, when the cointegrating vectors matrix is block-diagonal.

Suggested Citation

  • Piotr Kębłowski, 2021. "GVAR: A Case of Spurious Cross-Sectional Cointegration," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 175-187, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:psc:journl:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:175-187
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global VAR; GVAR; panel VAR; PVAR; spurious cross-sectional cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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