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Fragmentation in the European Monetary Union: Is it really over?

Author

Listed:
  • Bertrand Candelon

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Angelo Luisi

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

  • Francesco Roccazzella

    (Université catholique de Louvain)

Abstract

Sovereign bond market fragmentation represents one of the major challenges European authorities have had to tackle since the outburst of the euro area debt crisis in 2010. By investigating the inter-country shock transmission through a new methodology that reconciles Factor and Global Vector Autoregressive models, we first show that fragmentation risk well preceded the sovereign debt crisis outburst. Most importantly, by analyzing the recent period, we document a rise in fragmentation risk in the euro area during the COVID pandemic. This rise, connected to the pressure on public debts and deficits due to the pandemic period, questions the European integration process and calls for early measures to avoid a new sovereign debt crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Candelon & Angelo Luisi & Francesco Roccazzella, 2021. "Fragmentation in the European Monetary Union: Is it really over?," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2021_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2021_016
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    Cited by:

    1. Costola, Michele & Iacopini, Matteo, 2023. "Measuring sovereign bond fragmentation in the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Roccazzella, Francesco & Candelon, Bertrand, 2022. "Should we care about ECB inflation expectations?," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2022004, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro Area; Sovereign bond; Fragmentation; COVID;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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