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Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations
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Cited by:
- Driffill, John & Sola, Martin & Kenc, Turalay & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2004.
"On Model Selection and Markov Switching: A Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John Driffill & Turalay Kenc & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2008. "On Model Selection and Markov-Switching: An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts," Department of Economics Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
- Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012.
"On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
- BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen, 2009. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2009061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- BAUWENS, Luc & ROMBOUTS, Jeroen VK, 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," LIDAM Reprints CORE 2403, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V.K. Rombouts, 2009. "On Marginal Likelihood Computation in Change-point Models," Cahiers de recherche 0942, CIRPEE.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013.
"Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model,"
Working Papers
2013:17, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2014.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between Eurozone and US Booms and Busts: A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching VAR Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-142/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 01 Nov 2014.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Paper 2013/20, Norges Bank.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "Interactions between eurozone and US booms and busts: A Bayesian panel Markov-switching VAR model," Working Papers No 8/2014, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022.
"Contagious switching,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
- Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Daniel Soques, 2019. "Contagious Switching," Working Papers 2019-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Feb 2021.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
- Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022.
"Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
- Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2017. "Why has the US economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Working Papers 2017-14, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jun 2019.
- Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2020. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Discussion Paper Series 2001, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
- Zeynep Senyuz, 2011.
"Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, September.
- Senyuz, Zeynep, 2009. "Factor Analysis of Permanent and Transitory Dynamics of the U.S. Economy and the Stock Market," MPRA Paper 26855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2010.
- Karl Whelan, 2004.
"New evidence on balanced growth, stochastic trends, and economic fluctuations,"
Open Access publications
10197/218, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Whelan, Karl, 2006. "New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 5910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Whelan, Karl, 2004. "New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctations," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016.
"Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," Working Paper 2015/09, Norges Bank.
- Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
- Xiaoyu Zhang & Fanghui Pan, 2019. "The Dependence of China’s Monetary Policy Rules on Interest Rate Regimes: Empirical Analysis Based on a Pseudo Output Gap," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-15, May.
- Stuart J. Fowler, 2005.
"Income Inequality, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle,"
Working Papers
200507, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Stuart J. Fowler, 2005. "Income Inequality, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 184, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007.
"Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
- James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Staff Reports 159, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Park, Cyn-Young & Majuca, Ruperto & Yap, Josef, 2010.
"The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications,"
Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration
45, Asian Development Bank.
- Yap, Josef T. & Majuca, Ruperto P. & Park, Cyn-Young, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia: Impact and Policy Implications," Discussion Papers DP 2010-11, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
- Cyn-Young Park & Ruperto P. Majuca & Josef T. Yap, 2010. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and Potential Output in Asia : Impact and Policy Implications," Finance Working Papers 23101, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Blonigen, Bruce A. & Piger, Jeremy & Sly, Nicholas, 2014.
"Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 239-247.
- Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger & Nicholas Sly, 2012. "Comovement in GDP Trends and Cycles Among Trading Partners," NBER Working Papers 18032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005.
"Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?,"
IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, April.
- Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2003. "Did Output Recover From the Asian Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 2003/048, International Monetary Fund.
- Jangryoul Kim, 2011. "Legacy of the Two Crises: The Case of Malaysia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 31-48, December.
- Yi Wen & Huabin Wu, 2011.
"Dynamics of externalities: a second-order perspective,"
Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 187-206.
- Yi Wen & Huabin Wu, 2008. "Dynamics of externalities: a second-order perspective," Working Papers 2008-044, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Mateusz Pipień & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2019.
"The heterogeneity of convergence in transition countries,"
Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 75-105, January.
- Mateusz Pipieñ & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2017. "The Heterogeneity of Convergence in Transition Countries," Lodz Economics Working Papers 7/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
- Jan R. Kim & Keunsuk Chung, 2016. "House prices and business cycles: The case of the UK," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 131-146, June.
- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2012.
"Combination schemes for turning point predictions,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 402-412.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-123/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Papers 2012_15, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Combination schemes for turning point predictions," Working Paper 2012/04, Norges Bank.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007.
"The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
- Chang‐Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger & Richard Startz, 2003. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycle," Working Papers UWEC-2003-36, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2005. "The dynamic relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. business cycles," Working Papers 2001-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Guisinger, Amy Y. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2024.
"Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements,"
Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 132-149.
- Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Daniel Soques, 2020. "Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements," Working Papers 2020-052, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Aug 2021.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
- Rothman Philip A, 2008. "Reconsideration of the Markov Chain Evidence on Unemployment Rate Asymmetry," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-18, September.
- Eric Girardin, 2004.
"Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia,"
Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
- Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-dependent synchronization of growth cycles between Japan and East Asia," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- He, Dong & Liao, Wei & Wu, Tommy, 2015.
"Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis,"
Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 10-28.
- Dong He & Wei Liao & Tommy Wu, 2014. "Hong Kong's Growth Synchronisation with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis," Working Papers 152014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Mr. Dong He & Wei Liao & Tommy Wu, 2015. "Hong Kong’s Growth Synchronization with China and the U.S.: A Trend and Cycle Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2015/082, International Monetary Fund.
- Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2011.
"Output Fluctuations Persistence: Do Cyclical Shocks Matter?,"
Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 28-52, January.
- Silvestro Di Sanzo, 2006. "Output fluctuations persistence: Do cyclical shocks matter?," Working Papers 2006_21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
- Stuart J. Fowler, 2005. "Fiscal Spending Shocks and the Price of Investment: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," Working Papers 200502, Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
- Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
- Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
- Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
- Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2014.
"Beta-product dependent Pitman–Yor processes for Bayesian inference,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 49-72.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen, 2013. "Beta-Product Dependent Pitman-Yor Processes for Bayesian Inference," Working Papers 2013:13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:10:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
- Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.
- Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
- Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics.
- Li, Wei & Xu, Wei & Zhao, Junfeng & Jin, Yanfei, 2007. "Stochastic stability and bifurcation in a macroeconomic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 702-711.
- Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Thompson, Mark A., 2008. "Component structure for nonstationary time series: Application to benchmark oil prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 971-983, December.
- Yu-Lieh Huang & Chao-Hsi Huang, 2007. "The persistence of Taiwan's output fluctuations: an empirical study using innovation regime-switching model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2673-2679.
- Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta Saxena, 2008. "Business cycle dynamics in a small open economy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(15), pages 1153-1157.
- Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005.
"Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?,"
Macroeconomics
0508007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ms. Valerie Cerra & Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2005. "Eurosclerosis or Financial Collapse: Why Did Swedish Incomes Fall Behind?," IMF Working Papers 2005/029, International Monetary Fund.
- James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
- Driffill John & Kenc Turalay & Sola Martin & Spagnolo Fabio, 2009. "The Effects of Different Parameterizations of Markov-Switching in a CIR Model of Bond Pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.