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New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctations

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  • Whelan, Karl

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

The one-sector Solow-Ramsey model informs how most modern researchers characterize macroeconomic trends and cycles, and evidence supporting the model’s balanced growth predictions is often cited. This paper shows, however, that the inclusion of recent data leads to the balanced growth predictions being rejected. An alternative balanced growth hypothesis-that the ratio of nominal consumption to nominal investment is stationery-is put forward, and new measures of the stochastic trends and cycles in aggregate US data are derived based on this hypothesis. The contrasting behaviour of real and nominal ratios is consistent with a two-sector model of economic growth, with separate production technologies for consumption and investment and two stochastic trends underlying the long-run behaviour of all macroeconomic series. Empirical estimates of these stochastic trends are presented based on a structural VAR and the role played in the business cycle by shocks to these trends is discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Whelan, Karl, 2004. "New Evidence on Balanced Growth, Stochastic Trends, and Economic Fluctations," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:7/rt/04
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    Cited by:

    1. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Great Ratios, Balanced Growth and Stochastic Trends: Evidence for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_20, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    2. Mehdi Senouci, 2012. "Technical change in a neoclassical two-sector model of optimal growth," Working Papers halshs-00589627, HAL.
    3. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    4. Michal Andrle & Tibor Hledik & Ondra Kamenik & Jan Vlcek, 2009. "Implementing the New Structural Model of the Czech National Bank," Working Papers 2009/2, Czech National Bank.
    5. Peter N. Ireland, 2009. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation and the Recent Behavior of Money Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1040-1052, June.
    6. Lavan Mahadeva & Juan Carlos parra, 2008. "Testing a DSGE model and its partner database," Borradores de Economia 4507, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Jordi Gali, 2005. "Trends in hours, balanced growth, and the role of technology in the business cycle," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Jul), pages 459-486.
    8. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July.
    9. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2015. "Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Studies in Economics 1518, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    10. Sun Xiaojin & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2019. "What cycles? Data detrending in DSGE models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-23, June.
    11. Romero-Ávila, Diego, 2009. "Multiple Breaks, Terms of Trade Shocks and the Unit-Root Hypothesis for African Per Capita Real GDP," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1051-1068, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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