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Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection

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Cited by:

  1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
  2. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Models and Forecasts of Australian Macroeconomic Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1024, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  3. Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Herman K, 2003. "Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to U.S. Consumption and Income," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 547-563, October.
  4. Fabio Canova, 2004. "Testing for Convergence Clubs in Income Per Capita: A Predictive Density Approach," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(1), pages 49-77, February.
  5. Yan Qian & Zijun Wang, 2021. "A model selection approach to jointly testing for structural breaks and cointegration with application to the Eurocurrency interest rates market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 799-825, August.
  6. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
  7. Phillips, Peter C. B. & McFarland, James W., 1997. "Forward exchange market unbiasedness: the case of the Australian dollar since 1984," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 885-907, December.
  8. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "Data Dependent Rules For Selection Of The Number Of Leads And Lags In The Dynamic Ols Cointegrating Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1425-1441, October.
  9. Grassi, S. & Proietti, T., 2014. "Characterising economic trends by Bayesian stochastic model specification search," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 359-374.
  10. Chao, John C. & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1999. "Model selection in partially nonstationary vector autoregressive processes with reduced rank structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-271, August.
  11. Lee, Ji Hyung & Shi, Zhentao & Gao, Zhan, 2022. "On LASSO for predictive regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 229(2), pages 322-349.
  12. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
  13. Choi, In & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2012. "Model selection criteria for the leads-and-lags cointegrating regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 224-238.
  14. Sugita, Katsuhiro, 2008. "Bayesian analysis of a Markov switching temporal cointegration model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 257-274, March.
  15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 423-470, December.
  16. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Automated Discovery In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 3-20, February.
  17. Vos, A.F., 1993. "A fair comparison between regression models of different dimension," Serie Research Memoranda 0078, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  18. Houssa, Romain, 2013. "Uncertainty about welfare effects of consumption fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 35-62.
  19. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-273, July.
  20. Magris Martin & Iosifidis Alexandros, 2021. "Approximate Bayes factors for unit root testing," Papers 2102.10048, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  21. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Unit Root Testing In Practice: Dealing With Uncertainty Over The Trend And Initial Condition," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 587-636, June.
  22. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(2), pages 436-451, May.
  23. Patrick Marsh, "undated". "A Measure of Distance for the Unit Root Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 05/02, Department of Economics, University of York.
  24. Phillips, Peter C B & McFarland, James W & McMahon, Patrick C, 1996. "Robust Tests of Forward Exchange Market Efficiency with Empirical Evidence from the 1920s," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, Jan.-Feb..
  25. Qu, Zhongjun & Perron, Pierre, 2007. "A Modified Information Criterion For Cointegration Tests Based On A Var Approximation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 638-685, August.
  26. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1994. "Nonstationary Time Series and Cointegration: Recent Books and Themes for the Future," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1081, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  27. Harris, David & Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Testing For A Unit Root In The Presence Of A Possible Break In Trend," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1545-1588, December.
  28. Kleibergen, Frank, 2004. "Invariant Bayesian inference in regression models that is robust against the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 227-258, December.
  29. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian model selection and prediction with empirical applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 289-331, September.
  30. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2012. "Testing for unit roots in the presence of uncertainty over both the trend and initial condition," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 188-195.
  31. Gael Martin, 2001. "Bayesian Analysis Of A Fractional Cointegration Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 217-234.
  32. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2002. "Priors, posteriors and bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 223-249, December.
  33. Burak Saltoglu, 1998. "Speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium: an application with US Stock Price and Dividend data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 367-375.
  34. Pesaran, Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Real-Time Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 212-231, February.
  35. Lorenzo Trapani, 2021. "Testing for strict stationarity in a random coefficient autoregressive model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 220-256, April.
  36. Aaron Schiff & Peter Phillips, 2000. "Forecasting New Zealand's real GDP," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 159-181.
  37. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1995. "Bayesian prediction a response," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 351-365, September.
  38. Werner Ploberger & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1998. "Rissanen's Theorem and Econometric Time Series," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1197, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  39. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October.
  40. Ayat, Leila & Burridge, Peter, 2000. "Unit root tests in the presence of uncertainty about the non-stochastic trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 71-96, March.
  41. Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
  42. Ho, Paul, 2023. "Global robust Bayesian analysis in large models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 608-642.
  43. Han, Chirok & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Sul, Donggyu, 2014. "X-Differencing And Dynamic Panel Model Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 201-251, February.
  44. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1995. "Automated Forecasts of Asia-Pacific Economic Activity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1103, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  45. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
  46. Reschenhofer, Erhard, 1996. "Approximating the Bayes factor," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 241-245, October.
  47. David I. Harvey, & Stephen J. Leybourne, & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root when uncertain about the trend [Revised to become 07/03 above]," Discussion Papers 06/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  48. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1992. "Bayes Methods for Trending Multiple Time Series with an Empirical Application to the US Economy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1025, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  49. Munehisa Kasuya & Tomoki Tanemura, 2000. "Small Scale Bayesian VAR Modeling of the Japanese Macro Economy Using the Posterior Information Criterion and Monte Carlo Experiments," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series Research and Statistics D, Bank of Japan.
  50. Kim, Jae-Young, 2012. "Model selection in the presence of nonstationarity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 247-257.
  51. Kleibergen, F.R. & Paap, R., 1996. "Priors, Posterior Odds and Lagrange Multiplier Statistics in Bayesian Analyses of Cointegration," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9668-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
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