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The Reliability of Real Time Estimates of the Euro Area Output Gap

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Cited by:

  1. Buncic, Daniel & Müller, Oliver, 2017. "Measuring the output gap in Switzerland with linear opinion pools," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 153-171.
  2. Alessandro Cianci, 2016. "Disoccupazione strutturale in Italia e regole europee di bilancio," a/ Working Papers Series 1601, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
  3. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased? Evidence from stability and convergence programmes and the European Commission’s Spring forecasts," Papers WP681, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  4. Martin Gächter & Aleksandra Riedl & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2012. "Business Cycle Synchronization in the Euro Area and the Impact of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 33-60.
  5. Jed Armstrong, 2015. "The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s output gap indicator suite and its real-time properties," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2015/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  6. L. Marattin & S. Meraglia, 2015. "Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union under Asymmetric Information," Working Papers wp1018, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  7. Katharina Glass & Ulrich Fritsche, 2015. "Real-time Macroeconomic Data and Uncertainty," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201406, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
  8. de Carvalho, Miguel & Rua, António, 2017. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 185-198.
  9. Duarte, Cláudia & Maria, José R. & Sazedj, Sharmin, 2020. "Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 126-146.
  10. Rusnák, Marek, 2016. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in real time," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 26-39.
  11. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Musso, Alberto, 2011. "The reliability of real-time estimates of the euro area output gap," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1842-1856, July.
  12. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, Potential Output and the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence from Selected Advanced and CESEE Economies," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 52-75.
  13. Romain Bouis & Ane Kathrine Christensen & Boris Cournède, 2013. "Deleveraging: Challenges, Progress and Policies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1077, OECD Publishing.
  14. Gerhard Kempkes, 2014. "Cyclical Adjustment in Fiscal Rules: Some Evidence on Real-Time Bias for EU-15 Countries," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 70(2), pages 278-315, June.
  15. Maritta Paloviita & Markus Haavio & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Juha Kilponen, 2021. "What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 125-169, June.
  16. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2022. "Reliable Real-Time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 152-168, January.
  17. Jan Capek, 2014. "Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: Do Real-Time Data Matter?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 64(6), pages 457-475, December.
  18. Granados, Camilo & Parra-Amado, Daniel, 2024. "Estimating the output gap after COVID: How to address unprecedented macroeconomic variations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  19. Aastveit, Knut Are & Trovik, Tørres, 2014. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 180-193.
  20. Dominik Bernhofer & Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2014. "Finance, potential output and the business cycle," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 14, pages 235-264, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  21. Ince, Onur & Papell, David H., 2013. "The (un)reliability of real-time output gap estimates with revised data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 713-721.
  22. Cláudia Duarte, 2014. "Autoregressive augmentation of MIDAS regressions," Working Papers w201401, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  23. Kristian Jönsson, 2020. "Real-time US GDP gap properties using Hamilton’s regression-based filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 307-314, July.
  24. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Konjunkturbereinigung der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," Kiel Discussion Papers 538, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  25. Cronin, David & McQuinn, Kieran, 2021. "Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 337-349.
  26. Pichette, Lise & Robitaille, Marie-Noëlle & Salameh, Mohanad & St-Amant, Pierre, 2019. "Dismiss the output gaps? To use with caution given their limitations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 199-215.
  27. Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2021. "Survey-Based Structural Budget Balances," CESifo Working Paper Series 8911, CESifo.
  28. Feldkircher, Martin, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 19-49.
  29. Raffinot, Thomas, 2017. "Interest-Rates-Free Monetary Policy Rule," Working Papers 06898, George Mason University, Mercatus Center.
  30. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
  31. Kukk Merike & Staehr Karsten, 2015. "Enhanced Fiscal Governance in the European Union: The Fiscal Compact," TalTech Journal of European Studies, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 73-92, February.
  32. L. Marattin & S. Meraglia, 2016. "Potential Output and Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union under Asymmetric Information 2nd ed," Working Papers wp1063, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  33. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
  34. Bjørn Eraker & Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2015. "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 698-721.
  35. Jens Boysen‐Hogrefe, 2015. "Monetary Aggregates to Improve Early Output Gap Estimates in the Euro Area: An Empirical Assessment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 533-542, November.
  36. Marcin Wolski, 2016. "Welfare-theoretic Optimal Policies in a New-Keynesian Economy with Heterogeneous Regions: Any Role for Financial Integration?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(3), pages 742-761, May.
  37. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
  38. Rochelle M. Edge & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2016. "Real-Time Properties of the Federal Reserve's Output Gap," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 785-791, October.
  39. Ringa Raudla & James W. Douglas, 2021. "Structural Budget Balance as a Fiscal Rule in the European Union—Good, Bad, or Ugly?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 121-141, March.
  40. Hieu Thanh Nguyen & Hiep Ngoc Luu & Ngoc Ha Do, 2021. "The dynamic relationship between greenfield investments, cross-border M&As, domestic investment and economic growth in Vietnam," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1065-1089, November.
  41. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2017/18 [Towards a Forward-Looking Economic Policy. Annual Report 2017/18]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201718, February.
  42. Xueting Yu & Yuhan Zhu & Guangming Lv, 2020. "Analysis of the Impact of China’s GDP Data Revision on Monetary Policy from the Perspective of Uncertainty," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(6), pages 1251-1274, May.
  43. Lorenzo Burlon & Paolo D'Imperio, 2019. "The euro-area output gap through the lens of a DSGE model," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 477, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  44. Ley, Eduardo & Misch, Florian, 2013. "Real-time macro monitoring and fiscal policy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6303, The World Bank.
  45. Breuer, Sebastian & Elstner, Steffen, 2017. "Die Wachstumsperspektiven der deutschen Wirtschaft vor dem Hintergrund des demografischen Wandels: Die Mittelfristprojektion des Sachverständigenrates," Working Papers 07/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
  46. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2018. "Comparing Measures of Potential Output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(4), pages 297-316.
  47. Burlon, Lorenzo & D’Imperio, Paolo, 2020. "Reliable real-time estimates of the euro-area output gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  48. Czudaj, Robert, 2011. "P-star in times of crisis - Forecasting inflation for the euro area," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 390-407, September.
  49. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "The Real‐Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1167-1188, September.
  50. Ramis Khabibullin, 2019. "What measures of real economic activity slack are helpful for forecasting Russian inflation?," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps50, Bank of Russia.
  51. Ms. Burcu Hacibedel & Pierre Mandon & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Nathalie Pouokam, 2019. "Inequality in Good and Bad Times: A Cross-Country Approach," IMF Working Papers 2019/020, International Monetary Fund.
  52. Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011. "MIDAS vs. mixed-frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 529-542.
  53. Kai Carstensen & Felix Kießner & Thies Rossian, 2023. "Estimation of the TFP Gap for the Largest Five EMU Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10245, CESifo.
  54. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2015. "Konjunkturbereinigungsverfahren der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 9(1), pages 41-57, April.
  55. González-Astudillo, Manuel, 2019. "An output gap measure for the euro area: Exploiting country-level and cross-sectional data heterogeneity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  56. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2016. "Improving the reliability of real-time output gap estimates using survey forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 358-373.
  57. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2023. "The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real‐time reliability tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1101-1111, November.
  58. Punnoose Jacob & Finn Robinson, 2019. "Suite as! Augmenting the Reserve Bank’s output gap indicator suite," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  59. Morley, James & Rodríguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Estimating the euro area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
  60. Kuusi, Tero, 2018. "Does the structural budget balance guide fiscal policy pro-cyclically? Evidence from the Finnish Great Depression of the 1990s," MPRA Paper 84829, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  61. Plödt, Martin & Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Estimating simple fiscal policy reaction functions for the euro area countries," Kiel Working Papers 1899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  62. Kempkes, Gerhard, 2012. "Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries," Discussion Papers 15/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  63. Otmar Issing, 2010. "The development of monetary policy in the 20th century – some reflections," Working Paper Research 186, National Bank of Belgium.
  64. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "A quest between fiscal and market discipline," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
  65. Finn Robinson & Jamie Culling & Gael Price, 2019. "Evaluating indicators of labour market capacity in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2019/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  66. Lise Pichette & Marie-Noëlle Robitaille & Mohanad Salameh & Pierre St-Amant, 2018. "Dismiss the Gap? A Real-Time Assessment of the Usefulness of Canadian Output Gaps in Forecasting Inflation," Staff Working Papers 18-10, Bank of Canada.
  67. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Lucyna Gornicka, 2020. "Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?," IMF Working Papers 2020/024, International Monetary Fund.
  68. Sergei Aliukov & Jan Buleca, 2022. "Comparative Multidimensional Analysis of the Current State of European Economies Based on the Complex of Macroeconomic Indicators," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-29, March.
  69. Christian Gayer & Bertrand Marc, 2018. "A ‘New Modesty’? Level Shifts in Survey Data and the Decreasing Trend of ‘Normal’ Growth," European Economy - Discussion Papers 083, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  70. Jaqueson K. Galimberti & Marcelo L. Moura, 2011. "Improving the reliability of real-time Hodrick-Prescott filtering using survey forecasts," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 159, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  71. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Russian Federation: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/176, International Monetary Fund.
  72. Ricci-Risquete, Alejandro & Ramajo, Julián & de Castro, Francisco, 2016. "Do Spanish fiscal regimes follow the euro-area trends? Evidence from Markov-Switching fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 484-494.
  73. Nicolas Pinkwart, 2013. "Quantifying The European Central Bank'S Interest Rate Smoothing Behavior," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(4), pages 470-492, July.
  74. Cronin, David & McInerney, Niall, 2023. "Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the European Semester and Fiscal Compact – An empirical assessment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  75. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does "below, but close to, two percent" mean? Assessing the ECB's reaction function with real time data," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
  76. Mr. Alvar Kangur & Koralai Kirabaeva & Jean-Marc Natal & Simon Voigts, 2019. "How Informative Are Real Time Output Gap Estimates in Europe?," IMF Working Papers 2019/200, International Monetary Fund.
  77. Marcell Göttert & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2022. "Strukturelle Finanzierungssalden auf verlässliche Füße stellen [Putting Structural Budget Balances on Reliable Footing]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(2), pages 108-113, February.
  78. Rünstler, Gerhard & Balfoussia, Hiona & Burlon, Lorenzo & Buss, Ginters & Comunale, Mariarosaria & De Backer, Bruno & Dewachter, Hans & Guarda, Paolo & Haavio, Markus & Hindrayanto, Irma & Iskrev, Nik, 2018. "Real and financial cycles in EU countries - Stylised facts and modelling implications," Occasional Paper Series 205, European Central Bank.
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