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New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals

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Cited by:

  1. Ewa Batyra & Tiziana Leone & Mikko Myrskylä, 2021. "Forecasting of cohort fertility by educational level in countries with limited data availability: the case of Brazil," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2021-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  2. van Raalte, Alyson A & Basellini, Ugofilippo & Camarda, Carlo Giovanni & Nepomuceno, Marília & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2022. "The dangers of drawing cohort profiles from period data: a research note," SocArXiv frkcw, Center for Open Science.
  3. Rachel Margolis & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Parental Well-being Surrounding First Birth as a Determinant of Further Parity Progression," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(4), pages 1147-1166, August.
  4. David E. Bloom & Dara Lee Luca, 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanations, Future," PGDA Working Papers 13016, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  5. Sunnee Billingsley & Gerda Neyer & Katharina Wesolowski, 2022. "Social Investment Policies and Childbearing Across 20 Countries: Longitudinal and Micro-Level Analyses," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(5), pages 951-974, December.
  6. Daniel Ciganda & Julia Hellstrand & Mikko Myrskylä, 2023. "Future fertility scenarios in Finland: a computational forecasting approach," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  7. David S. Reher, 2021. "The Aftermath of the Demographic Transition in the Developed World: Interpreting Enduring Disparities in Reproductive Behavior," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 475-503, June.
  8. Mikko Myrskylä & Rachel Margolis, 2014. "Happiness: Before and After the Kids," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(5), pages 1843-1866, October.
  9. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  10. Liat Raz-Yurovich, 2022. "Leisure: Definitions, Trends, and Policy Implications," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(3), pages 981-1019, June.
  11. Sanan Abdullayev & Allan Puur, 2024. "Varying responses to the introduction of earnings-related benefits: a study of 2004 parental leave reform in Estonia," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 1-31, December.
  12. Piotr Dominiak & Ewa Lechman & Anna Okonowicz, 2015. "Fertility Rebound And Economic Growth. New Evidence For 18 Countries Over The Period 1970–2011," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 91-112, March.
  13. Elke Loichinger & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2018. "Feminising the workforce in ageing East Asia? The potential of skilled female labour in four advanced economies," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 187-215, June.
  14. Rossa Agnieszka & Palma Agnieszka, 2020. "Predicting parity progression ratios for young women by the end of their childbearing life," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 21(1), pages 55-71, March.
  15. Barslund, Mikkel Marten von Werder & von Werder, Marten, 2016. "Measuring ageing and the need for longer working lives in the EU," CEPS Papers 11349, Centre for European Policy Studies.
  16. García-Manglano, Javier & Nollenberger, Natalia & Sevilla, Almudena, 2014. "Gender, Time-Use, and Fertility Recovery in Industrialized Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 8613, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  17. Mikko Myrskylä & Julia Hellstrand & Sampo Lappo & Angelo Lorenti & Jessica Nisén & Ziwei Rao & Heikki Tikanmäki, 2024. "Declining fertility, human capital investment, and economic sustainability," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2024-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  18. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Elia, Leandro & Weber, Anke, 2015. "A fast-forward look at tertiary education attainment in Europe 2020," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 804-819.
  19. Ester Lazzari & Michaela Potančoková & Tomáš Sobotka & Edith Gray & Georgina M. Chambers, 2023. "Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(1), pages 1-22, February.
  20. Albert Esteve & Ridhi Kashyap & Joan García Román & Yen-Hsin Alice Cheng & Setsuya Fukuda & Wanli Nie & Hyun-ok Lee, 2020. "Demographic change and increasing late singlehood in East Asia, 2010–2050," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(46), pages 1367-1398.
  21. Barbara S. Okun & Liat Raz‐Yurovich, 2019. "Housework, Gender Role Attitudes, and Couples' Fertility Intentions: Reconsidering Men's Roles in Gender Theories of Family Change," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 45(1), pages 169-196, March.
  22. Friedel Sabine & Birkenbach Tim, 2020. "Evolution of the Initially Recruited SHARE Panel Sample Over the First Six Waves," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 36(3), pages 507-527, September.
  23. Schneider, Daniel & Hastings, Orestes P., 2015. "Socio-Economic Variation in the Effect of Economic Conditions on Marriage and Non-marital Fertility: Evidence from the Great Recession," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt52x1c6dj, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  24. Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 500-513, June.
  25. Peter H. Lindert, 2017. "The Rise and Future of Progressive Redistribution," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 73, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
  26. Kazutoshi Miyazawa, 2021. "Elderly empowerment, fertility, and public pensions," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(4), pages 941-964, August.
  27. Joanne Ellison & Erengul Dodd & Jonathan J. Forster, 2020. "Forecasting of cohort fertility under a hierarchical Bayesian approach," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(3), pages 829-856, June.
  28. Victor Leocádio & Ana Paula Verona & Simone Wajnman, 2025. "A review of research of the relationship between gender equity and fertility in low-fertility settings," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-26, March.
  29. Daniel Schneider & Orestes Hastings, 2015. "Socioeconomic Variation in the Effect of Economic Conditions on Marriage and Nonmarital Fertility in the United States: Evidence From the Great Recession," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(6), pages 1893-1915, December.
  30. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2024. "Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 159-184, August.
  31. Jonathan Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 35(3), pages 487-518, July.
  32. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  33. Agnieszka Rossa & Agnieszka Palma, 2020. "Predicting parity progression ratios for young women by the end of their childbearing life," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 55-71, March.
  34. Yen-hsin Alice Cheng & Elke Loichinger, 2017. "The Future Labor Force of an Aging Taiwan: The Importance of Education and Female Labor Supply," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(3), pages 441-466, June.
  35. Lawrence L. Wu & Nicholas D. E. Mark, 2023. "Is US Fertility now Below Replacement? Evidence from Period vs. Cohort Trends," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(5), pages 1-22, October.
  36. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  37. Eva Beaujouan & Kryštof Zeman & Mathías Nathan, 2023. "Delayed first births and completed fertility across the 1940–1969 birth cohorts," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 48(15), pages 387-420.
  38. Héctor Pifarré i Arolas, 2017. "A cohort perspective of the effect of unemployment on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(4), pages 1211-1239, October.
  39. Li-Chung Hu & Yi-Lin Chiang, 2021. "Having Children in a Time of Lowest-Low Fertility: Value of Children, Sex Preference and Fertility Desire among Taiwanese Young Adults," Child Indicators Research, Springer;The International Society of Child Indicators (ISCI), vol. 14(2), pages 537-554, April.
  40. Namkee Ahn & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2020. "Analysis of fertility using cohort-specific socio-economic data," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 711-733, September.
  41. Irakli Japaridze & Nagham Sayour, 2024. "Housing Affordability Crisis and Delayed Fertility: Evidence from the USA," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-34, April.
  42. Alyson van Raalte & Ugofilippo Basellini & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Marília R. Nepomuceno & Mikko Myrskylä, 2022. "The dangers of drawing cohort profiles from period data: a research note," Working Papers ayadh-ohbnm4x3q6cor1, French Institute for Demographic Studies.
  43. Sebastian Klüsener & Aiva Jasilioniene & Victoriya Yuodeshko, 2019. "Retraditionalization as a pathway to escape lowest-low fertility? Characteristics and prospects of the Eastern European “baby boom”," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-014, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  44. Stuart Basten & Georgia Verropoulou, 2015. "A Re-Interpretation of the ‘Two-child Norm’ in Post-Transitional Demographic Systems: Fertility Intentions in Taiwan," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(8), pages 1-16, August.
  45. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
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