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Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts," Post-Print hal-02894262, HAL.
  2. Mattia Guerini, 2013. "Is the Friedman Rule Stabilizing? Some Unpleasant Results in a Heterogeneous Expectations Framework," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def003, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  3. repec:ctc:serie1:def3 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Arifovic, Jasmina & Petersen, Luba, 2017. "Stabilizing expectations at the zero lower bound: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 21-43.
  5. Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017. "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  6. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Surricchio, Silvia & Waldmann, Robert J., 2019. "A behavioral model of the credit cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 53-83.
  7. Cornand, Camille & M'baye, Cheick Kader, 2018. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter? An Experimental Investigation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 362-401, March.
  8. Duncan, Roberto & Martínez-García, Enrique, 2019. "New perspectives on forecasting inflation in emerging market economies: An empirical assessment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1008-1031.
  9. Selten, Reinhard & Neugebauer, Tibor, 2019. "Experimental stock market dynamics: Excess bids, directional learning, and adaptive style-investing in a call-auction with multiple multi-period lived assets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 209-224.
  10. Pfajfar, D., 2012. "Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations," Other publications TiSEM f256da5c-c711-49c8-bd12-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  11. Lambsdorff, Johann Graf & Schubert, Manuel & Giamattei, Marcus, 2013. "On the role of heuristics—Experimental evidence on inflation dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1213-1229.
  12. Wei Zhao & Yi Lu & Genfu Feng, 2019. "How Many Agents are Rational in China’s Economy? Evidence from a Heterogeneous Agent-Based New Keynesian Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 575-611, August.
  13. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Mark Setterfield & Jaylson Jair da Silveira, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Macroeconomic Stability with Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 255-279, December.
  14. Adriana Cornea-Madeira & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 2019. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in U.S. Inflation Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 288-300, April.
  15. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Carolina Serpieri, 2018. "Robust Optimal Policies in a Behavioural New Keynesian Model," JRC Research Reports JRC111603, Joint Research Centre.
  16. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Discussion Paper 2012-072, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  17. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2018. "Inflation Expectations And Monetary Policy Design: Evidence From The Laboratory," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 1035-1075, June.
  18. Arifovic, Jasmina & Yıldızoğlu, Murat, 2019. "Learning the Ramsey outcome in a Kydland & Prescott economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 191-208.
  19. Bazán-Palomino, Walter & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2018. "The New Keynesian framework for a small open economy with structural breaks: Empirical evidence from Peru," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 13-25.
  20. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena & Mauro Gallegati, 2020. "Long-run expectations in a learning-to-forecast experiment: a simulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 75-116, January.
  21. Bao, Te & Hommes, Cars & Pei, Jiaoying, 2021. "Expectation formation in finance and macroeconomics: A review of new experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  22. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-072)," Discussion Paper 2011-053, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  23. Audzei, Volha & Slobodyan, Sergey, 2022. "Sparse restricted perceptions equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  24. Cornand, Camille & Heinemann, Frank, 2022. "Monetary policy obeying the Taylor principle turns prices into strategic substitutes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1357-1371.
  25. Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro & Isabelle Salle, 2019. "Monetary And Fiscal Policy Design At The Zero Lower Bound: Evidence From The Lab," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1120-1140, April.
  26. De Grauwe, Paul & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2015. "Animal spirits and credit cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 95-117.
  27. Kukacka, Jiri & Sacht, Stephen, 2023. "Estimation of heuristic switching in behavioral macroeconomic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  28. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2017. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations, And The Amplification And Duration Of Crises," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 542-564, January.
  29. Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2013. "Macroeconomic Stability and Heterogeneous Expectations," DEM Working Papers Series 037, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  30. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena, 2019. "The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(3), pages 491-520, September.
  31. Branch, William & McGough, Bruce, 2016. "Heterogeneous beliefs and trading inefficiencies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 786-818.
  32. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7t8isspkbs8hk8kol9kk9sjdl6 is not listed on IDEAS
  33. Abhishek Das & Arpita Ghose & Gautam Gupta, 2018. "Expectation Formation in a New Keynesian Economy: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(1), pages 17-39, March.
  34. Te Bao & Jichuan Zong, 2018. "The Impact of Interest Rate Policy on Individual Expectations and Asset Bubbles in Experimental Markets," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1802, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  35. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of EBC DP 2011-014)," Other publications TiSEM 2b92a09f-918e-4614-978d-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  36. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2020. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  37. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
  38. Boehl, Gregor, 2022. "Monetary policy and speculative asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  39. Assenza, Tiziana & Grazzini, Jakob & Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico, 2015. "PQ strategies in monopolistic competition: Some insights from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 62-77.
  40. Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Illusion and the Taylor Principle – An Experimental Study," Ruhr Economic Papers 402, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  41. Mitja Steinbacher & Matthias Raddant & Fariba Karimi & Eva Camacho Cuena & Simone Alfarano & Giulia Iori & Thomas Lux, 2021. "Advances in the agent-based modeling of economic and social behavior," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-24, July.
  42. Annarita Colasante & Simone Alfarano & Eva Camacho-Cuena, 2020. "Heuristic Switching Model and Exploration-Exploitation Algorithm to Describe Long-Run Expectations in LtFEs: a Comparison," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(3), pages 623-658, October.
  43. Hommes, Cars H., 2014. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 1(1-2), pages 75-97, January.
  44. Chen, Shu-Heng & Chang, Chia-Ling & Tseng, Yi-Heng, 2014. "Social networks, social interaction and macroeconomic dynamics: How much could Ernst Ising help DSGE?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 312-335.
  45. Galí, Jordi & Giusti, Giovanni & Noussair, Charles N., 2021. "Monetary Policy and Asset Price Bubbles: A Laboratory Experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  46. Cars Hommes & Tomasz Makarewicz & Domenico Massaro & Tom Smits, 2017. "Genetic algorithm learning in a New Keynesian macroeconomic setup," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 1133-1155, November.
  47. Tae-Seok Jang & Stephen Sacht, 2022. "Macroeconomic dynamics under bounded rationality: on the impact of consumers’ forecast heuristics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 849-873, July.
  48. Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2018. "Do Heterogeneous Expectations Constitute A Challenge For Policy Interaction?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(8), pages 2107-2140, December.
  49. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2014. "Experiments on Monetary Policy and Central Banking," Research in Experimental Economics, in: Experiments in Macroeconomics, volume 17, pages 167-227, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  50. Massaro, D., 2012. "Regime shifts: early warnings," CeNDEF Working Papers 12-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  51. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  52. Camille Cornand & Cheick Kader M’baye, 2018. "Band or point inflation targeting? An experimental approach," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 283-309, July.
  53. Biondo, Alessio Emanuele, 2017. "Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  54. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7t8isspkbs8hk8kol9kk9sjdl6 is not listed on IDEAS
  55. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Luba Petersen, 2013. "Expectations and Monetary Policy: Experimental Evidence," Staff Working Papers 13-44, Bank of Canada.
  56. Anna Agliari & Domenico Massaro & Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2017. "Inflation Targeting, Recursive Inattentiveness, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1587-1619, October.
  57. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2016. "Uncertainty in forecasting inflation and monetary policy design: Evidence from the laboratory," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 849-864.
  58. Biondo, Alessio Emanuele, 2018. "Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-21.
  59. Emanuel Gasteiger, 2014. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Optimal Monetary Policy, and the Merit of Policy Inertia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1535-1554, October.
  60. Papadopoulos, Georgios, 2019. "Income inequality, consumption, credit and credit risk in a data-driven agent-based model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 39-73.
  61. Luba Petersen & Jasmina Arifovic, 2015. "Escaping Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps: Experimental Evidence," Discussion Papers dp15-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  62. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Alessio Moneta & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance," LEM Papers Series 2017/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  63. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
  64. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  65. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2014. "Heterogeneity in Inflation Expectations and Macroeconomic Stability under Satisficing Learning," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2014_28, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  66. Pecora, Nicolò & Spelta, Alessandro, 2017. "Managing monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with many beliefs types," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 53-58.
  67. repec:zbw:rwirep:0402 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. Pfajfar, Damjan, 2013. "Formation of rationally heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 1434-1452.
  69. Heemeijer Peter & Hommes Cars & Sonnemans Joep & Tuinstra Jan, 2012. "An Experimental Study on Expectations and Learning in Overlapping Generations Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-49, October.
  70. repec:ctc:serie1:def11 is not listed on IDEAS
  71. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2017. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Discussion Papers dp17-03, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  72. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2012. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Revised version of CentER DP 2011-053)," Other publications TiSEM 38fac5ce-fe8f-4b61-a679-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  73. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes, 2012. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes in Asset Pricing Experiments," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 35-64, November.
  74. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)," Other publications TiSEM 24250de3-0ad7-48dc-9c2a-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  75. Elias, Christopher J., 2022. "Adaptive learning with heterogeneous expectations in an estimated medium-scale New Keynesian model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  76. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  77. Goy, Gavin & Hommes, Cars & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2022. "Forward guidance and the role of central bank credibility under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1240-1274.
  78. Deversi, Marvin, 2014. "Do Macroeconomic Shocks Affect Intuitive Inflation Forecasting? An Experimental Investigation," Ruhr Economic Papers 528, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  79. Michael W. M. Roos & Wolfgang J. Luhan, 2013. "Information, Learning and Expectations in an Experimental Model Economy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 513-531, July.
  80. Loretta J. Mester, 2016. "Recent Inflation Developments and Challenges for Research and Monetary Policymaking : The 47th Konstanz Seminar on Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy, Insel Reichenau, Germany 5-12-2016," Speech 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  81. Luhan, Wolfgang J. & Scharler, Johann, 2014. "Inflation illusion and the Taylor principle: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 94-110.
  82. Cars Hommes, 2010. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: some evidence from the lab," Post-Print hal-00753041, HAL.
  83. Tiziana Assenza & William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2013. "Animal Spirits, Heterogeneous Expectations and the Emergence of Booms and Busts," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-205/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  84. Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 680-692.
  85. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
  86. Wolfgang J. Luhan & Johann Scharler, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Illusion and the Taylor Principle – An Experimental Study," Ruhr Economic Papers 0402, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  87. Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2022. "Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  88. Luba Petersen, 2014. "Forecast Error Information and Heterogeneous Expectations in Learning-to-Forecast Experiments," Discussion Papers dp14-05, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  89. F. Cavalli & A. Naimzada & N. Pecora & M. Pireddu, 2021. "Market sentiment and heterogeneous agents in an evolutive financial model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1189-1219, September.
  90. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Uncertainty and Disagreement in Forecasting Inflation : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaced by CentER DP 2012-072)," Other publications TiSEM e2c64836-9ab5-4cc2-9f16-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  91. Pfajfar, Damjan & Žakelj, Blaž, 2014. "Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 147-168.
  92. Gavin Goy & Cars Homme & Kostas Mavromatis, 2018. "Forward Guidance and the Role of Central Bank Credibility," DNB Working Papers 614, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  93. Tomasz Makarewicz, 2017. "Contrarian Behavior, Information Networks and Heterogeneous Expectations in an Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 231-279, August.
  94. Bao, Te & Zong, Jichuan, 2019. "The impact of interest rate policy on individual expectations and asset bubbles in experimental markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
  95. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)," Discussion Paper 2011-091, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  96. Tai, Chung-Ching & Chen, Shu-Heng & Yang, Lee-Xieng, 2018. "Cognitive ability and earnings performance: Evidence from double auction market experiments," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 409-440.
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