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Macroeconomic dynamics under bounded rationality: on the impact of consumers’ forecast heuristics

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  • Tae-Seok Jang

    (Kyungpook National University)

  • Stephen Sacht

    (Kiel University)

Abstract

This paper considers various types of forecast heuristics to examine the effects of boundedly rational agents on macroeconomic dynamics. Given the baseline New Keynesian model, we seek to find the expectation formation process that is most suitable in describing economic adjustments over the business cycle. In particular, impulse response analysis is used to compare the performances of the macroeconomic model under bounded rationality and under rational expectations. The results show that the fluctuations in consumer confidence mainly explain the degree of persistence in consumption. We conclude that a model under bounded rationality with a heuristic-induced switching process can qualitatively provide a good fit to the data that is equivalent to a model under rational expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Tae-Seok Jang & Stephen Sacht, 2022. "Macroeconomic dynamics under bounded rationality: on the impact of consumers’ forecast heuristics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 849-873, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jeicoo:v:17:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11403-022-00348-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11403-022-00348-7
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    1. Teglio, Andrea & Catalano, Michele & Petrovic, Marko, 2014. "Myopic households on a stable path: the neoclassical growth model with rule-based expectations," MPRA Paper 120253, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bounded rationality; Consumer confidence; Forecast heuristics; Impulse response analysis; New Keynesian model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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