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Is There a Peso Problem? Evidence from the Dollar/Pound Exchange Rate, 1976-1987

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Cited by:

  1. Gabaix, Xavier & Verdelhan, Adrien & Rancière, Romain & Farhi, Emmanuel & Fraiberger, Samuel P., 2009. "Crash Risk in Currency Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7322, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Roman Frydman & Michael Goldberg & Nicholas Mangee, 2015. "New Evidence for the Present-Value Model of Stock Prices: Why the REH Version Failed Empirically," Working Papers Series 2, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  3. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2015. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3673-3695, July.
  4. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "A Drift of the "Drift Adjustment Method"," Memorandum 16/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
  5. Zhou, Su & Kutan, Ali M., 2005. "Does the forward premium anomaly depend on the sample period used or on the sign of the premium?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 17-25.
  6. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
  7. Prat, Georges & Uctum, Remzi, 2011. "Modelling oil price expectations: Evidence from survey data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 236-247, June.
  8. Nicolas Million, 2007. "Effet peso : présentation théorique et application à la politique monétaire," Post-Print halshs-00144659, HAL.
  9. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
  10. Straetmans, Stefan T.M. & Versteeg, Roald J. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2013. "Are capital controls in the foreign exchange market effective?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 36-53.
  11. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
  12. Reinhart, Vincent & Simin, Timothy, 1997. "The market reaction to federal reserve policy action from 1989 to 1992," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-168.
  13. Chien-Hsiu Lin & Shih-Kuei Lin & An-Chi Wu, 2015. "Foreign exchange option pricing in the currency cycle with jump risks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 755-789, May.
  14. Carrasco, Marine, 2002. "Misspecified Structural Change, Threshold, and Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 239-273, August.
  15. Cosmin Ilut, 2012. "Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 33-65, July.
  16. Goldberg, Michael D., 2000. "On empirical exchange rate models: what does a rejection of the symmetry restriction on short-run interest rates mean?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 673-688, October.
  17. Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael D. & Mangee, Nicholas, 2015. "Knightian uncertainty and stock-price movements: Why the REH present-value model failed empirically," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-50.
  18. Shehadeh, Ali A. & Li, Youwei & Vigne, Samuel A. & Almaharmeh, Mohammad I. & Wang, Yizhi, 2021. "The existence and severity of the forward premium puzzle during tranquil and turbulent periods: Developed versus developing country currencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  19. Felmingham, Bruce & Leong, SuSan, 2005. "Parity conditions and the efficiency of the Australian 90- and 180-day forward markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 127-145.
  20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "International Portfolio Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility for Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 5615, CESifo.
  21. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Chan, Kam C. & Fok, Chi-Wing, 1995. "The distribution of currency futures price changes: A two-piece mixture of normals approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-78.
  22. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
  23. Zhou, Su, 2002. "The forward premium anomaly and the trend behavior of the exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 273-279, July.
  24. Terra, Cristina & Valladares, Frederico, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 119-144, January.
  25. Philippe Andrade & Catherine Bruneau, 2002. "Excess returns, portfolio choices and exchange rate dynamics. The yen/dollar case, 1980–1998," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(3), pages 233-256, July.
  26. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 125-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Christopher R. Knittel & Catherine Wolfram, 2008. "Inefficiencies And Market Power In Financial Arbitrage: A Study Of California'S Electricity Markets," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 347-378, June.
  28. Lothian, James R. & Wu, Liuren, 2011. "Uncovered interest-rate parity over the past two centuries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 448-473, April.
  29. Franc Klaassen, 2005. "Long Swings in Exchange Rates: Are They Really in the Data?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 87-95, January.
  30. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
  31. Vitaly Orlov, 2018. "Solvency Risk Premia and the Carry Trades," Working Papers on Finance 1802, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  32. Juan Ángel Jiménez Martín & Rodrigo Peruga Urrea, 2003. "La Transición al Euro y la Prima de Riesgo en el Mercado de Divisas," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0306, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  33. Kühl, Michael, 2008. "Strong comovements of exchange rates: Theoretical and empirical cases when currencies become the same asset," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 76, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  34. Orlov, Vitaly & Äijö, Janne, 2015. "Benefits of wavelet-based carry trade diversification," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 17-32.
  35. repec:zbw:rwirep:0334 is not listed on IDEAS
  36. Miksjuk Alexei, 2009. "Studying the Relation between the Interest Rates and the Exchange Rate in Belarus under the Speculative Motives Assumption," EERC Working Paper Series 09/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
  37. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, "undated". "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," Working Paper 71001, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  38. Durmaz, Nazif & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Hyejin & Sun, Yanfei, 2023. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Mutual Fund Discounts," MPRA Paper 117789, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February.
  40. Ronald MacDonald & Jun Nagayasu, 2013. "Currency forecast errors at times of low interest rates: evidence from survey data on the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Working Papers 1321, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  41. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Advances in Econometrics, in: Missing Data Methods: Time-Series Methods and Applications, pages 1-86, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  42. Stefan Reitz & Jan-Christoph Rülke & Georg Stadtmann, 2009. "Are oil-price-forecasters finally right? – Regressive expectations towards more fundamental values of the oil price," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-04, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
  43. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  44. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2009. "Modelling oil price expectations: evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04140866, HAL.
  45. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2014. "Expectation formation in the foreign exchange market: a time-varying heterogeneity approach using survey data," Working Papers hal-04141348, HAL.
  46. Christopher Knittel & Catherine Wolfram & James Bushnell & Severin Borenstein, 2006. "Inefficiencies and Market Power in Financial Arbitrage: A Study of California?s Electricity Markets," Working Papers 630, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  47. Roman Frydman & Soeren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Nyboe Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth�s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 19-02, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  48. Bruce Felmingham & SuSan Leong, 2005. "Parity conditions and the efficiency of the Australian 90‐ and 180‐day forward markets," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 127-145.
  49. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Working Papers hal-04141591, HAL.
  50. Mangee, Nicholas, 2024. "Stock price swings and fundamentals: The role of Knightian uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  51. Mario Jovanovic, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Generalized Taylor Principle," Ruhr Economic Papers 0334, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  52. Fuentes, Cesar A. & Rios, Ronald, 2014. "Non-explicit FOREX intervention: The role of the Central Reserve Bank in a dollarized economy and its effects on expectations from the “peso problem” perspective: The case of Peru," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 558-566.
  53. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  54. Roman Frydman & Soren Johansen & Anders Rahbek & Morten Tabor, 2019. "The Knightian Uncertainty Hypothesis: Unforeseeable Change and Muth`s Consistency Constraint in Modeling Aggregate Outcomes," Working Papers Series 92, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
  55. Marco Bonomo & Cristina Terra, 1999. "The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil: 1964-1997," Research Department Publications 3065, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  56. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
  57. Grossmann, Axel & Lee, Allissa A. & Simpson, Marc W., 2014. "Forward premium anomaly of the British pound and the euro," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 140-156.
  58. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
  59. Shehadeh, Ali & Li, Youwei & Moore, Michael, 2016. "The Forward Premium Bias, Carry Trade Return and the Risks of Volatility and Liquidity," MPRA Paper 71709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  60. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2007. "Generalizing the Taylor Principle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 607-635, June.
  61. Penttinen, Aku, 2000. "Devaluation-risk-related peso problems in stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 181-197, June.
  62. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2012. "Markov switching and exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 353-365.
  63. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:50:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
  64. Bowden Roger J. & Zhu Jennifer Z, 2007. "Which Are the World's Wobblier Currencies? Reference Exchange Rates and Their Variation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 1-32, September.
  65. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "Currency forecast errors and carry trades at times of low interest rates: Evidence from survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-19.
  66. Simpson, Marc W. & Grossmann, Axel, 2014. "An examination of the forward prediction error of U.S. dollar exchange rates and how they are related to bid-ask spreads, purchasing power parity disequilibria, and forward premium asymmetry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 221-238.
  67. Davig, Troy, 2004. "Regime-switching debt and taxation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 837-859, May.
  68. Keith Sill & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1999. "Exchange rates and monetary policy regimes in Canada and the U.S," Working Papers 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  69. Idowu Oluwasayo Ayodeji, 2017. "Oil and the Naira: A Markov Switching Perspective," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(4), pages 562-574, December.
  70. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2009. "Determinants of exchange rate regime switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 68-98, February.
  71. Sonia Pangusión Espinosa., "undated". "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 128, FEDEA.
  72. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
  73. Craig Burnside, 2011. "Carry Trades and Risk," NBER Working Papers 17278, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  74. repec:got:cegedp:76 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Christodoulakis, Nicos M. & Kalyvitis, Sarantis C., 1997. "Efficiency testing revisited: a foreign exchange market with Bayesian learning," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 367-385, June.
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  77. Gabriela Mundaca, B., 2000. "The effect of interventions on realignment probabilities," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 323-347, December.
  78. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 1999. "Time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange and equity markets: evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 291-316, November.
  79. Jonathan Kearns, 2007. "Commodity Currencies: Why Are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures Are Not?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 60-73, March.
  80. Sofiane Amri, 2008. "Analysing the forward premium anomaly using a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(26), pages 1-18.
  81. Bazdresch, Santiago & Werner, Alejandro, 2005. "Regime switching models for the Mexican peso," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 185-201, January.
  82. Jovanovic, Mario, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Generalized Taylor Principle," Ruhr Economic Papers 334, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  83. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "Modeling Exchange Rates with Incomplete Information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 11.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
  84. Groth, Charlotta & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Macroeconomic stability and the real interest rate: a cross-country analysis," Discussion Papers 30, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
  85. Nazif Durmaz & Hyeongwoo Kim & Hyejin Lee & Yanfei Sun, 2023. "Trend Breaks and the Persistence of Closed-End Fund Discounts," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2023-08, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  86. Jovanović, Mario, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the generalized Taylor principle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 78-80.
  87. Youssef, Manel & Mokni, Khaled, 2020. "Modeling the relationship between oil and USD exchange rates: Evidence from a regime-switching-quantile regression approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
  88. Severin Borenstein & James Bushnell & Christopher R. Knittel & Catherine Wolfram, 2001. "Trading Inefficiencies in California's Electricity Markets," NBER Working Papers 8620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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