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Agents' Rationality and the CHF/USD Exchange Rate, Part I

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  • Hermann Garbers

Abstract

The analysis of monthly exchange rates is carried out using a model of McCallum, which is based on the concept of Rational Expectations. Applying the model to the CHF/USD exchange rate starting a misspecification analysis, the RE component appears to be a weak point of the model. The theory of rational beliefs of M. Kurz generalizes the RE concept introducing special consideration of Data Generating Processes (DGP). We find, however, some evidence speaking against the rational belief approach (with respect to the CHF/USD exchange rate) which is related to regime switchings and the presence of unobserved variables in the data-generating process. It appears that the rationality of economic agents depends on complex cognitive processes not discussed by Kurz, but taken into account in a ''story'' by Paul De Grauwe. This story will be supplemented in Part II of the paper in order to eliminate the RE component and to proceed with the misspecification analysis of McCallum's model.

Suggested Citation

  • Hermann Garbers, "undated". "Agents' Rationality and the CHF/USD Exchange Rate, Part I," IEW - Working Papers 163, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:163
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    File URL: https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/52059/1/iewwp163.pdf
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    1. repec:bla:intfin:v:3:y:2000:i:3:p:329-56 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "Exchange Rates in Search of Fundamentals: The Case of the Euro–Dollar Rate," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 4, pages 121-158, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A reconsideration of the uncovered interest parity relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 105-132, February.
    4. Mordecai Kurz, "undated". "Endogenous Uncertainty: A Unified View of Market Volatility," Working Papers 97027, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    5. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
    6. Jaeger, Albert, 1994. "Mechanical Detrending by Hodrick-Prescott Filtering: A Note," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 493-500.
    7. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    8. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    General Economics and Methodology;

    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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