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Soft Landing of a Stock Market Bubble, An Experimental Study

Author

Listed:
  • Ralf Becker
  • Urs Fischbacher
  • Thorsten Hens

Abstract

The paper investigates the effect of interest policy on price bubbles, trading behavior and portfolio choice in experimental stock markets. A series of experiments has 8 participants trade an asset over 15 periods. Alternatively, the participants can invest money in interest-bearing bonds. Treatment groups are subjected to an endogenous interest policy, while control groups experience a constant interest rate. Our stock markets are characterized by bubbles. While we observe a small positive impact of our interest policy on bubbles, the policy also strongly increases market volatility. On the other hand, concerning portfolio choice, we find evidence for value-driven (rational) investment behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Becker & Urs Fischbacher & Thorsten Hens, "undated". "Soft Landing of a Stock Market Bubble, An Experimental Study," IEW - Working Papers 090, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    • Handle: RePEc:zur:iewwpx:090
    as

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    File URL: https://www.zora.uzh.ch/id/eprint/51990/1/iewwp090.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
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    4. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    5. Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-1181, September.
    6. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-541, October.
    7. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Spotting Bubbles
      by Karl Smith in Modeled Behavior on 2009-08-05 23:17:41

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Aleksander Berentsen & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2003. "Money and the Gains from Trade," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 263-297, February.
    2. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Monetary policy, asset prices and macroeconomic conditions : a panel-VAR study," Working Paper Research 149, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Berentsen Aleksander & Rocheteau Guillaume, 2003. "On the Friedman Rule in Search Models with Divisible Money," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-21, December.
    4. Aleksander Berentsen & Esther Br�gger & Simon L�rtscher, "undated". "On Cheating and Whistle-Blowing," IEW - Working Papers 153, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    5. Ernst Fehr & Joseph Henrich, 2003. "Is Strong Reciprocity a Maladaptation? On the Evolutionary Foundations of Human Altruism," CESifo Working Paper Series 859, CESifo.
    6. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IMFS Working Paper Series 16, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    7. Kirchler, Michael, 2009. "Underreaction to fundamental information and asymmetry in mispricing between bullish and bearish markets. An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 491-506, February.
    8. Reto Foellmi & Urs Meister, 2005. "Product-Market Competition in the Water Industry: Voluntary Non-discriminatory Pricing," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 115-135, June.
    9. Katrin Assenmacher & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Aleksander Berentsen & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2004. "Money and Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(4), pages 915-944.
    11. Berentsen, Aleksander & Rocheteau, Guillaume, 2002. "On the efficiency of monetary exchange: how divisibility of money matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1621-1649, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    experimental asset markets; stock market bubbles; interest rate policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior

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