Cointegrated VARMA models and forecasting US interest rates
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Helmut Lütkepohl, 2005. "New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-27752-1, December.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Claessen, Holger, 1997. "Analysis of cointegrated VARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 223-239, October.
- Kascha, Christian & Mertens, Karel, 2009.
"Business cycle analysis and VARMA models,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 267-282, February.
- Christian Kascha & Karel Mertens, 2006. "Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA models," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/37, European University Institute.
- Christian Kascha & Karel Mertens, 2008. "Business cycle analysis and VARMA models," Working Paper 2008/05, Norges Bank.
- Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007.
"Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version,"
Working papers
191, Banque de France.
- Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working Papers 2007-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Carstensen, Kai, 2003.
"Nonstationary term premia and cointegration of the term structure,"
Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 409-413, September.
- Carstensen, Kai, 2003. "Nonstationary term premia and cointegration of the term structure," Munich Reprints in Economics 19944, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010.
"Cointegration Rank Testing Under Conditional Heteroskedasticity,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1719-1760, December.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2009. "Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CREATES Research Papers 2009-22, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Michiel De Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010.
"Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
993, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michiel de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," Working Paper 2010/01, Norges Bank.
- Poskitt, D. S., 2003. "On the specification of cointegrated autoregressive moving-average forecasting systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-519.
- D.S. Poskitt, 2009. "Vector Autoregresive Moving Average Identification for Macroeconomic Modeling: Algorithms and Theory," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Poskitt, D. & Lütkepohl, H., 1995. "Consistent Specification of Cointegrated Autoregressive Moving-Average Systems," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. d'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Linear transformations of vector ARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-293, December.
- Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006.
"The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
- Taylor, Mark & Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 4835, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jostein Paulsen, 1984. "Order Determination Of Multivariate Autoregressive Time Series With Unit Roots," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 115-127, March.
- Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 105-153.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Vahid, Farshid, 2008.
"VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 237-252, April.
- George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Dietmar Bauer & Martin Wagner, 2005.
"Autoregressive Approximations of Multiple Frequency I(1) Processes,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2005/09, European University Institute.
- Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2005. "Autoregressive Approximations of Multiple Frequency I(1) Processes," Economics Series 174, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Poskitt, D.S., 2006. "On The Identification And Estimation Of Nonstationary And Cointegrated Armax Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 1138-1175, December.
- Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-366, July.
- Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-126, February.
- Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88.
- Lai, T. L. & Wei, C. Z., 1982. "Asymptotic properties of projections with applications to stochastic regression problems," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 346-370, September.
- Bent Nielsen, 2001. "Order determination in general vector autoregressions," Economics Papers 2001-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Athanasopouolos, George & Poskitt, Don & Vahid, Farshid & Yao, Wenying, 2014. "Forecasting with EC-VARMA models," Working Papers 2014-07, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 22 Feb 2014.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Jean-Marie Dufour & Tarek Jouini, 2011. "Asymptotic Distributions for Some Quasi-Efficient Estimators in Echelon VARMA Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-25, CIRANO.
- Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013.
"No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
- Jardet, C. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2009. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working papers 234, Banque de France.
- Caroline JARDET & Alain MONFORT & Fulvio PEGORARO, 2011. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working Papers 2011-03, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
- Tillmann, Peter, 2007. "Inflation regimes in the US term structure of interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 203-223, March.
- Tillmann, Peter, 2003.
"Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Bonn Econ Discussion Papers
27/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
- Peter Tillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 26, Econometric Society.
- PeterTillmann, 2004. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 53, Society for Computational Economics.
- Till Strohsal & Enzo Weber, 2014.
"Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis,"
Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 1983-1997, November.
- Strohsal, Till & Weber, Enzo, 2010. "Mean-Variance Cointegration and the Expectations Hypothesis," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 442, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
- Strohsal, Till & Weber, Enzo, 2011. "Mean-variance cointegration and the expectations hypothesis," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-007, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
- Marie-Christine Duker & David S. Matteson & Ruey S. Tsay & Ines Wilms, 2024. "Vector AutoRegressive Moving Average Models: A Review," Papers 2406.19702, arXiv.org.
- Giese, Julia V., 2008.
"Level, Slope, Curvature: Characterising the Yield Curve in a Cointegrated VAR Model,"
Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-20.
- Giese, Julia V., 2008. "Level, Slope, Curvature: Characterising the Yield Curve in a Cointegrated VAR Model," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2020. "The EHTS and the persistence in the spread reconsidered. A fractional cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 124-137.
- repec:bla:jecsur:v:16:y:2002:i:3:p:301-55 is not listed on IDEAS
- Markku Lanne, 2000. "Near unit roots, cointegration, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(5), pages 513-529.
- Hansen, Anne Lundgaard, 2021. "Modeling persistent interest rates with double-autoregressive processes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
- Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003.
"Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen, 2000. "Structural Changes in the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 2000-20, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Sanjay Ramchander & Marc Simpson & Mukesh Chaudhry, 2003. "The impact of inflationary news on money market yields and volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 85-101, March.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2016.
"Large Bayesian VARMAs,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 374-390.
- Chan, Joshua C.C. & Eisenstat, Eric & Koop, Gary, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-06, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Joshua Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2015. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 15-36, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Joshua C C Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Papers 1409, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
- Joshua C.C. Chan & Eric Eisenstat & Gary Koop, 2014. "Large Bayesian VARMAs," Working Paper series 40_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Panagiotis T. Konstantinou, 2005. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure : A Look at the Polish Interbank Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 70-91, May.
- Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001.
"Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June.
- Sharon Kozicki & Peter A. Tinsley, 1997. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Research Working Paper 97-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Stelios Bekiros & Christos Avdoulas, 2020. "Revisiting the Dynamic Linkages of Treasury Bond Yields for the BRICS: A Forecasting Analysis," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(2), pages 1-28, May.
- Athanasopouolos, George & Poskitt, Don & Vahid, Farshid & Yao, Wenying, 2014. "Forecasting with EC-VARMA models," Working Papers 2014-07, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 22 Feb 2014.
- Jondeau, E. & Ricart, R., 1996. "The Expectation Theory: Tests on French, German, and American Euro-Rates," Working papers 35, Banque de France.
- Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Jondeau, E., 1999. "Interest Rate Transmission and Volatility Transmission along the Yield Curve," Working papers 57, Banque de France.
More about this item
Keywords
Cointegration; VARMA models; forecasting;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBA-2011-10-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2011-10-15 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2011-10-15 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2011-10-15 (Forecasting)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Severin Oswald (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/seizhch.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.