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Reformen im Niedriglohnsektor: Eine integrierte CGE-Mikrosimulationsstudie der Arbeitsangebots- und Beschäftigungseffekte

Author

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  • Franz, Wolfgang
  • Guertzgen, Nicole
  • Schubert, Stefanie
  • Clauss, Markus

Abstract

Ziel dieses Beitrags ist die Quantifizierung der mit der Einführung des Arbeitslosengeldes II verbundenen Arbeitsangebots- und Beschäftigungseffekte. Zusätzlich wird ein Reformszenario simuliert, welches die Anreizstruktur im Niedriglohnbereich verbessern soll. Methodisch wird ein Mikrosimulationsmodell mit einem allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodell kombiniert. Dieses Vorgehen vereint die Vorteile der Mikrosimulation durch die detaillierte Berücksichtigung der Haushalte auf Basis der Daten des Sozioökonomischen Panels mit den Vorteilen eines allgemeinen Gleichgewichtsmodells. So werden neben den Erstrundeneffekten auch Rückkopplungseffekte aufgrund von Preisänderungen mit eingeschlossen. Für die Hartz IV-Reform lässt sich auf Basis der Simulationsergebnisse ein geringfügiger Beschäftigungsgewinn in Höhe von 45.000 Personen quantifizieren. Demgegenüber errechnet sich für das alternative Szenario, welches eine Absenkung der Regelsätze sowie der Transferentzugsquote vorsieht, ein Beschäftigungsgewinn von 190.000 Personen.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz, Wolfgang & Guertzgen, Nicole & Schubert, Stefanie & Clauss, Markus, 2007. "Reformen im Niedriglohnsektor: Eine integrierte CGE-Mikrosimulationsstudie der Arbeitsangebots- und Beschäftigungseffekte," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-085, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7097
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Boeters & Michael Feil, 2009. "Heterogeneous Labour Markets in a Microsimulation–AGE Model: Application to Welfare Reform in Germany," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 305-335, May.
    2. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1159-1198, November.
    3. Georg Struch, 2012. "Entwicklung des integrierten Mikrosimulationsmodells EITDsim," Working Papers 122, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    4. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models — Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 301-329, November.
    5. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    6. Boss, Alfred & Christensen, Björn & Schrader, Klaus, 2010. "Die Hartz IV-Falle: Wenn Arbeit nicht mehr lohnt," Kiel Discussion Papers 474/475, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Caliendo, Marco, 2009. "Income Support Systems, Labor Market Policies and Labor Supply: The German Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 4665, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Jacopo Zotti & Rosita Pretaroli & Francesca Severini & Claudio Socci & Giancarlo Infantino, 2020. "Employment incentives and the disaggregated impact on the economy. The Italian case," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 993-1032, October.
    9. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2010. "Die Schweiz als Vorbild? Bemerkungen zur Diskussion um eine Reform des deutschen Gesundheitswesens," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2010 2010-15, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mikrosimulation; CGE-Modelle; Arbeitsangebot;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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