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Sources of German unemployment: evidence from a structural VAR model

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  • Linzert, Tobias

Abstract

This paper analyzes the dynamic effects of different macroeconomic shocks on unemployment in Germany. In a first step, a cointegration analysis of productivity, prices, real wages, employment, and the unemployment rate reveals two long run relationships, interpreted as a labor demand and a wage setting scheme. Secondly, a structural VAR model is identified using the restrictions suggested by a single macroeconomic model. The impulse response analysis and the forecast error variance decomposition display that price, demand, and labor supply shocks affect unemployment significantly in the short/medium run. Interestingly, however, wage and technology shocks do not seem to play a dominant role.

Suggested Citation

  • Linzert, Tobias, 2001. "Sources of German unemployment: evidence from a structural VAR model," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-41, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5396
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    2. Sylwia Roszkowska & Aleksandra Rogut, 2010. "Wages, Prices and Unemployment in Poland," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 7-8, pages 21-43.
    3. Tafirenyika SUNDE, 2015. "The effects of monetary policy on unemployment in Namibia," Journal of Economic and Social Thought, KSP Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 256-274, December.
    4. Anita Staneva, 2007. "Econometric analysis of Labour Market in Bulgaria - 1991-2006," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 144-172.
    5. Riza Bayrak, Halim Tatli, 2018. "The Determinants of Youth Unemployment: A Panel Data Analysis of OECD Countries," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(2), pages 231-248, December.
    6. repec:ksp:journ3:v:1:y:2015:i:4:p:256-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mariana Kotzeva & Bianka Pauna, 2006. "Labour Market Dynamics and Characteristics in Bulgaria and Romania: Challenges for a Successful Integration in the European Union," wiiw Balkan Observatory Working Papers 66, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Structural VAR; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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