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Contextual effects on the vote in Germany: A multilevel analysis

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  • Pickery, Jan

Abstract

This paper addresses the old topic of contextual effects on voting behaviour. Current multilevel analysis techniques provide a powerful tool to (re-)examine such regional influ-ences on individual voting decisions. We apply multilevel analysis to German electoral data. Our results prove evidence of two contextual effects. The unemployment level of the district has a positive effect on SPD support, which confirms the local equivalent of the economic vote model. Furthermore the global strength of a party in a district has a positive effect on the individual decision to support that party. This is a confirmation of what has been labelled as breakage. Both effects demonstrate the continuing impact of the locality on individual vote preferences in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Pickery, Jan, 2002. "Contextual effects on the vote in Germany: A multilevel analysis," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Institutions and Social Change FS III 02-202, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbisc:fsiii02202
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    1. Harvey Goldstein & Michael J. R. Healy, 1995. "The Graphical Presentation of a Collection of Means," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 158(1), pages 175-177, January.
    2. Wright, Gerald C., 1977. "Contextual Models of Electoral Behavior: The Southern Wallace Vote," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 497-508, June.
    3. Fitton, Martin, 1973. "Neighbourhood and Voting: a Sociometric Examination," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 445-472, October.
    4. Fisher, Stephen D., 2000. "Class Contextual Effects on the Conservative Vote in 1983," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 347-361, April.
    5. Harvey Goldstein & Sally Thomas, 1996. "Using Examination Results as Indicators of School and College Performance," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 159(1), pages 149-163, January.
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