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Contextual Models of Electoral Behavior: The Southern Wallace Vote

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  • Wright, Gerald C.

Abstract

Many studies have sought to investigate contextual influences on individual electoral behavior using aggregate data. The shortcomings of this approach are discussed, focusing on the relationship between black concentration and southern white support for George Wallace for president in 1968. Through combining aggregate and individual-level data and comparing a series of models, black concentration is found to increase white support for Wallace. Intraregional differences in the relationship between white support for Wallace and local black concentration are equalized when contextual influences at the state level are brought into the analysis. Black concentration contextual effects are independent of those of urbanization, education, or residence in Wallace's home state of Alabama. Relative primary group support for Wallace and relative issue proximity to Wallace are then shown to be the intervening variables linking contextual characteristics and electoral choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Wright, Gerald C., 1977. "Contextual Models of Electoral Behavior: The Southern Wallace Vote," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 497-508, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:71:y:1977:i:02:p:497-508_26
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey A. Fine & James M. Avery, 2014. "Senate Responsiveness to Minority Constituencies: Latino Electoral Strength and Representation," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1172-1188, December.
    2. Stuti SAXENA, 2017. "Cybernetic Model of Voting Behavior," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 87-104, March.
    3. Asaad H. Almohammad, 2016. "Toward a Theory of Political Emotion Causation," SAGE Open, , vol. 6(3), pages 21582440166, August.
    4. Micheal W. Giles & Arthur Evans, 1986. "The Power Approach to Intergroup Hostility," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 30(3), pages 469-486, September.
    5. Pickery, Jan, 2002. "Contextual effects on the vote in Germany: A multilevel analysis," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Institutions and Social Change FS III 02-202, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    6. Ira Wasserman, 1982. "Size of place in relation to community attachment and satisfaction with community services," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 421-436, November.
    7. Dietlind Stolle & Stuart Soroka & Richard Johnston, 2008. "When Does Diversity Erode Trust? Neighborhood Diversity, Interpersonal Trust and the Mediating Effect of Social Interactions," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 56(1), pages 57-75, March.

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