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The economics of permissible WTO retaliation

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  • Bown, Chad P.
  • Ruta, Michele

Abstract

We examine how theoretical and quantitative economic analysis has and can be used in this stage of the DSU process. First, we identify, characterize, and categorize the major classes of disputes e.g., those affecting import protection versus export promotion and use the Bagwell and Staiger interpretation of the WTO principle of reciprocity to provide a theoretical framework that arbitrators can use to identify the maximum level of retaliatory countermeasures. Second, we allocate each of the ten DSU arbitrations that have taken place thus far into one of these categories and compare the arbitrators’ actual approach with the theory. Third, we use this framework to identify three crucial elements to the arbitrators' decision-making process for each case: i) the formula that they decide to adopt for identifying appropriate countermeasures, ii) their political-legal-economic decision on a WTO-consistent counterfactual to use to implement the formula, and iii) the quantitative methods they use to necessarily construct the (unobserved) WTO-consistent counterfactual. We examine not only the arbitrations that have taken place thus far, but our approach also illustrates a template for many additional types of arbitrations likely to take place under the DSU. Finally, in the disputes in which this reciprocity approach has not been used, we identify procedural difficulties that arbitrators confront thus highlighting the constraints that hinder their use of economic analysis in practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Bown, Chad P. & Ruta, Michele, 2008. "The economics of permissible WTO retaliation," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2008-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd200804
    DOI: 10.30875/0e4df9a2-en
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Chad P. Bown, 2002. "The Economics of Trade Disputes, the GATT’s Article XXIII, and the WTO’s Dispute Settlement Understanding," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 283-323, November.
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    10. Thomas J. Prusa & David C. Sharp, 2001. "Simultaneous Equations in Antidumping Investigations," Journal of Forensic Economics, National Association of Forensic Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 63-78, December.
    11. Bagwell, Kyle & Staiger, Robert W., 2001. "Reciprocity, non-discrimination and preferential agreements in the multilateral trading system," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 281-325, June.
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    1. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2012:i:085 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kyle Bagwell & Chad P. Bown & Robert W. Staiger, 2016. "Is the WTO Passé?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1125-1231, December.
    3. Fouré, Jean & Guimbard, Houssein & Monjon, Stéphanie, 2016. "Border carbon adjustment and trade retaliation: What would be the cost for the European Union?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 349-362.
    4. Jean Fouré & Houssein Guimbard & Stéphanie Monjon, 2013. "Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union?," Working Papers 2013-34, CEPII research center.
    5. Fontagné, Lionel & Guillin, Amélie & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2010. "Estimations of Tariff Equivalents for the Services Sectors," Conference papers 331941, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    6. Chad P. Bown & Kara M. Reynolds, 2017. "Trade Agreements and Enforcement: Evidence from WTO Dispute Settlement," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 64-100, November.
    7. Richard Chisik & Chuyi Fang, 2020. "Cross-retaliation and International Dispute Settlement," Working Papers 066, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    8. Staiger, Robert & Bagwell, Kyle & Bown, Chad, 2015. "Is the WTO Passé?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Michele Ruta, 2013. "The Role of Economic Theory in WTO Arbitrations," RSCAS Working Papers PP2013/02, European University Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WTO; DSU; arbitrations; reciprocity; retaliation; market access; terms-of-trade externality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law

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