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The Analysis of Causality in Escape Clause Cases

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  • Kelly, Kenneth

Abstract

Under Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974, the so-called escape clause, a domestic industry that is seriously injured can obtain temporary relief if imports are the substantial cause of such injury. This paper develops a methodology to determine the change in a domestic industry's production as a result of changes in import supply, demand, and domestic supply, and so determine whether or not an industry is entitled to Section 201 relief. This methodology is illustrated by application to two recent Section 201 investigations-wood shakes and shingles, and nonrubber footwear. Copyright 1988 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelly, Kenneth, 1988. "The Analysis of Causality in Escape Clause Cases," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 187-207, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jindec:v:37:y:1988:i:2:p:187-207
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    Cited by:

    1. Russell Hillberry & Phillip McCalman, 2016. "Import dynamics and demands for protection," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 1125-1152, August.
    2. Bown, Chad P. & Ruta, Michele, 2008. "The economics of permissible WTO retaliation," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2008-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    3. Kitano, Taiju & Ohashi, Hiroshi, 2009. "Did US safeguards resuscitate Harley-Davidson in the 1980s?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 186-197, November.
    4. Irwin, Douglas A., 2003. "Causing problems? The WTO review of causation and injury attribution in US Section 201 cases," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 297-325, November.
    5. Taiju Kitano, 2022. "Environmental Policy as a De Facto Industrial Policy: Evidence from the Japanese Car Market," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 60(4), pages 511-548, June.

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