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Anwendung der Choice-Based-Conjoint-Analyse zur Prognose von Kaufentscheidungen im ÖPNV

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  • Günthel, Dennis
  • Strum, Lars
  • Gärtner, Christoph

Abstract

In dem vorliegenden Beitrag beschreiben wir die exemplarische Anwendung der Choice-Based-Conjoint-Analyse (CBCA) in der ÖPNV-Kaufverhaltensforschung. Ausgehend von den Ergebnissen einer Befragung von mehr als 1000 Abo-Kunden eines deutschen Verkehrsraumes, welche uns von PROBST & CONSORTEN Marketing-Beratung zur Verfügung gestellt wurde, untersuchen wir, ob eine Produktdifferenzierung des derzeitigen Monatskartenabo-Angebotes dazu geeignet ist, den Kundennutzen und die Abo-Fahrgelderlöse zu steigern. Im Rahmen eines Preisexperiments werden hierbei drei Auswahlalternativen berücksichtigt: eine günstige Basisvariante, eine preisintensivere und zugleich mit zusätzlichen Leistungseigenschaften versehene Premiumvariante sowie eine Nicht-Wahl-Alternative. Für die sich anschließende Analyse der Auswahlentscheidungen verwenden wir ein Multinomiales Logit-Modell. Unter Einbeziehung der individualspezifischen Parameter Einkommen, PKW-Verfügbarkeit, derzeit zu entrichtender Abopreis, Geschlecht, Alter, Anzahl Kinder im Haushalt, Anzahl Erwachsene im Haushalt, Fahrten, Mitnahme-und Übertragungshäufigkeit schlussfolgern wir, dass eine Produktdifferenzierung zu einer Steigerung der Fahrgeldeinnahmen im bereits vorhandenen Kundenbestand führt.

Suggested Citation

  • Günthel, Dennis & Strum, Lars & Gärtner, Christoph, 2009. "Anwendung der Choice-Based-Conjoint-Analyse zur Prognose von Kaufentscheidungen im ÖPNV," Discussion Papers 1/2009, Technische Universität Dresden, "Friedrich List" Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:tudiwv:12009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Haase, Knut & Hoppe, Mirko, 2008. "Standortplanung unter Wettbewerb - Teil 1: Grundlagen," Discussion Papers 2/2008, Technische Universität Dresden, "Friedrich List" Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics.
    2. Wieland, Bernhard & Seidel, Tina & Matthes, Andreas & Schlag, Bernhard, 2004. "Transport Policy, Acceptance and the Media," Discussion Papers 2/2004, Technische Universität Dresden, "Friedrich List" Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics.
    3. Brunow, Stephan & Hirte, Georg, 2005. "Age Structure and Regional Income Growth," Discussion Papers 1/2005, Technische Universität Dresden, "Friedrich List" Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, Institute of Transport and Economics.
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